Deep Dive Analysis
Fetch.ai (FET)
2026-07-23 15:15 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.15
0.15
52W HIGH
2.20
2.20
DRAWDOWN
-93.1%
-93.1%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 1 Bull / 9 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: MACD+
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, RSI weak (35.1), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 33.1), distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.33)
FET Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.27
Low: 0.14
Now: 0.15
Low: 0.14
Now: 0.15
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 35.1 | ADX (14) | 33.1 |
| 50d MA | 0.18 | 200d MA | 0.20 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.15 | Resistance | 0.19 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.75%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| FET | -17.1% | -21.5% | -15.2% | -44.0% |
| BTC | +5.2% | -16.6% | -9.2% | -31.5% |
| ETH | +10.8% | -11.7% | -10.3% | -39.4% |
| SOL | -6.0% | -13.0% | -13.9% | -45.3% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
37,379
RETURN
+6.8%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-39.4%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| FET | +6.8% | -79.3% | -39.4% | 41 | 51% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (FET)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -44.0% | 7,353 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -45.5% | 19,079 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -48.0% | 18,196 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -40.3% | 20,895 |
FET Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.14 (-9.5%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-08 | BUY | 0.23 | |
| 2026-05-09 | SELL | 0.23 | -0.6% |
| 2026-05-10 | BUY | 0.24 | |
| 2026-05-11 | SELL | 0.24 | -2.2% |
| 2026-05-26 | BUY | 0.25 | |
| 2026-05-27 | SELL | 0.24 | -3.7% |
| 2026-05-29 | BUY | 0.24 | |
| 2026-05-30 | SELL | 0.28 | +13.9% |
| 2026-05-31 | BUY | 0.27 | |
| 2026-06-01 | SELL | 0.27 | +1.8% |
| 2026-06-02 | BUY | 0.24 | |
| 2026-06-03 | SELL | 0.26 | +5.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-07-23 15:15 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
93% drawdown and they still labeled it SELL lol. anyone still holding FET from the top is in pure agony
93% down from the high and theyre still calling it AVOID lol. bit late on that one
bro the high was 2.20, its at 0.15 now. you dont say
ADX 33 on a -93% coin is wild. that trend strength means its not even close to bottoming, the bleed just keeps going
macd flipping bullish on a coin down 93% is the ultimate bull trap. seen this movie before with algo bags in 2022
sats_pile MACD bullish cross on a 93% down coin is the oldest trap in the book. seen it with ICX in 2019 and ALGO in 2022. same pattern same result
pico_target_ completely agree. MACD bullish cross on a -93% coin is the ultimate bull trap. seen it with IOTA, ICX, ALGO. same story every cycle
pico_target_ exactly. MACD bullish cross on a -93pct coin is like celebrating a 2pct bounce on the way down from a cliff. seen this with IOTA at 0.20 thinking it was the bottom. it wasnt
RSI at 35 and ADX 33 basically confirms what everyone already knew. this thing is a falling knife with no bottom in sight
Dejan V. ADX at 33 means the downtrend is genuinely strong not weakening. people trying to catch this falling knife are going to bleed more before any reversal
0.15 from 2.20 and people still looking for reversal signals. the only signal that matters is the 52w low test and its coming
ADX at 33 on a 93 percent drawdown coin. the downtrend is literally the strongest signal here and people are still looking for bottoms
relentless_short the SELL rating at 0.15 is useless. where was the sell call at 1.80 when the ADX was first strengthening on the downside. rating systems lagging not leading
Sahil M. rating system flagging SELL after 2 billion in mcap evaporated is the definition of lagging not leading. useless signal
0.15 from a 2.20 high is brutal. the 52w low is probably not even in yet with RSI at 35 and ADX still trending
the SELL rating drops at 0.15 right next to a 35k deployment plan. the desk gets to accumulate cheap while readers are told to stay away. free liquidity
The 35K plan is a hypothetical sizing example, not a shopping cart. Every analysis site publishes those. This conspiracy angle every time a rating goes against someones bag is exhausting.
ADX at 33 on a coin down 93pct from ATH. anyone buying here is catching a knife midair. the SELL rating should have come at 1.50 not 0.15
Sahil M. the late SELL call is the real issue. rating system that flags SELL after 93pct drawdown is useless. the damage was done 2 billion dollars of market cap ago
norm_beta_ the SELL call at 0.15 after a 93pct drawdown is comedy. thanks for the heads up, really helpful now that the damage is done
where were the sell calls at 1.50, at 1.00, at 0.60. rating systems that only fire at the bottom are marketing for the desk, holders needed the signal a year ago
lol every analysis comment section is like this. down 93% is when everyone shows up angry, the 1.50 warnings wouldve gotten three likes and zero replies
to be fair the rating just marks what already happened, adx 33 and lower lows since 2.20. flagging SELL at 0.15 reads like a receipt printed after the meal
the problem with FET was never the tech. the 2024 AI run priced it like a chip stock and once the agent narrative rolled over there was nothing underneath. -93% is just the mean finding its level
2.20 to 0.15 and the ADX at 33 means the downtrend is still the strongest signal. anyone buying this is gambling not investing