Deep Dive Analysis
Fetch.ai (FET)
2026-07-23 15:15 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.15
0.15
52W HIGH
2.20
2.20
DRAWDOWN
-93.1%
-93.1%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 1 Bull / 9 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: MACD+
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, RSI weak (35.1), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 33.1), distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.33)
FET Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.27
Low: 0.14
Now: 0.15
Low: 0.14
Now: 0.15
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 35.1 | ADX (14) | 33.1 |
| 50d MA | 0.18 | 200d MA | 0.20 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.15 | Resistance | 0.19 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.75%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| FET | -17.1% | -21.5% | -15.2% | -44.0% |
| BTC | +5.2% | -16.6% | -9.2% | -31.5% |
| ETH | +10.8% | -11.7% | -10.3% | -39.4% |
| SOL | -6.0% | -13.0% | -13.9% | -45.3% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
37,379
RETURN
+6.8%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-39.4%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| FET | +6.8% | -79.3% | -39.4% | 41 | 51% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (FET)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -44.0% | 7,353 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -45.5% | 19,079 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -48.0% | 18,196 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -40.3% | 20,895 |
FET Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.14 (-9.5%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-08 | BUY | 0.23 | |
| 2026-05-09 | SELL | 0.23 | -0.6% |
| 2026-05-10 | BUY | 0.24 | |
| 2026-05-11 | SELL | 0.24 | -2.2% |
| 2026-05-26 | BUY | 0.25 | |
| 2026-05-27 | SELL | 0.24 | -3.7% |
| 2026-05-29 | BUY | 0.24 | |
| 2026-05-30 | SELL | 0.28 | +13.9% |
| 2026-05-31 | BUY | 0.27 | |
| 2026-06-01 | SELL | 0.27 | +1.8% |
| 2026-06-02 | BUY | 0.24 | |
| 2026-06-03 | SELL | 0.26 | +5.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-07-23 15:15 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
93% drawdown and they still labeled it SELL lol. anyone still holding FET from the top is in pure agony
93% down from the high and theyre still calling it AVOID lol. bit late on that one
bro the high was 2.20, its at 0.15 now. you dont say
ADX 33 on a -93% coin is wild. that trend strength means its not even close to bottoming, the bleed just keeps going
macd flipping bullish on a coin down 93% is the ultimate bull trap. seen this movie before with algo bags in 2022
sats_pile MACD bullish cross on a 93% down coin is the oldest trap in the book. seen it with ICX in 2019 and ALGO in 2022. same pattern same result
RSI at 35 and ADX 33 basically confirms what everyone already knew. this thing is a falling knife with no bottom in sight
Dejan V. ADX at 33 means the downtrend is genuinely strong not weakening. people trying to catch this falling knife are going to bleed more before any reversal
0.15 from a 2.20 high is brutal. the 52w low is probably not even in yet with RSI at 35 and ADX still trending