Deep Dive Analysis
Jupiter (JUP)
2026-07-24 08:31 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.00
0.00
52W HIGH
0.56
0.56
DRAWDOWN
-99.9%
-99.9%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 4 Bull / 6 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, RSI healthy (52.7), rising 1m & 3m, vol 8.24x on up day
Bearish factors: price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 87.8), distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.7)
JUP Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 52.7 | ADX (14) | 87.8 |
| 50d MA | 0.00 | 200d MA | 0.00 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.00 | Resistance | 0.00 |
| ATR Volatility | 59.7%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| JUP | +8.2% | +5.7% | +16.8% | -56.8% |
| BTC | +4.5% | -13.4% | -10.2% | -31.6% |
| ETH | +7.6% | -8.5% | -13.2% | -40.3% |
| SOL | -7.9% | -10.1% | -17.8% | -45.7% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
0
RETURN
-100.0%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-100.0%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| JUP | -100.0% | -73.4% | -100.0% | 52 | 27% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (JUP)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -56.8% | 9,164 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -50.5% | 17,314 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -39.8% | 21,058 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -34.0% | 23,114 |
JUP Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | -0.00 (-106.0%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-01-14 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-01-15 | SELL | 0.00 | -4.1% |
| 2026-01-16 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-01-17 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.8% |
| 2026-01-18 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-01-19 | SELL | 0.00 | -7.7% |
| 2026-07-14 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-07-15 | SELL | 0.00 | +4.7% |
| 2026-07-16 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-07-17 | SELL | 0.00 | -3.5% |
| 2026-07-18 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-07-19 | SELL | 0.00 | -95.7% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-07-24 08:31 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
-99.9% drawdown and they still rate it HOLD? at that point just call it what it is, dead money
99.9% drawdown and they still call it HOLD? at some point you are just holding a bag of dust my friend
Remy D. is right. at 99.9% drawdown holding is just cope. the capital is already gone, the question is whether the remaining 0.1% goes to zero or does a 10x to become 1%
Oliver Schmidt putting a 15% position size on something with a -100% backtest is wild. conservative institutional my ass
59.7% daily ATR volatility is insane even for crypto. this thing moves more than meme coins
atr_junkie_ 59.7% daily ATR means your stop loss gets triggered in your sleep. nobody should be trading this with real money
Suki M. 59.7% daily ATR and people are still long. this is why liquidation cascades exist
Suki M. 59.7 percent daily ATR on something down 99.9 percent. the volatility is pure manipulation on low liquidity. spread between bid and ask is probably wider than the daily range
59.7 percent daily ATR on a token down 99.9 percent. thats not volatility thats just no liquidity and wide spreads
Dejan M. 15% allocation on a -99.9% asset is not wild, its irresponsible. Oliver Schmidt should disclose if he actually holds this position or if this is engagement bait
Dejan M. a 15% allocation on something down 99.9% is not conservative its gambling with extra steps. Oliver Schmidt owes his readers an explanation for that position size
99.9 percent drawdown and Oliver Schmidt calls it a HOLD with a 15 percent allocation. at that point youre just holding a lottery ticket and calling it a portfolio strategy
Magnus E. 99.9% drawdown and still HOLD with 15% allocation is either insane discipline or pure cope. at that point the opportunity cost of not rotating to literally anything else is the real loss
calling HOLD on something with a -99.9 percent drawdown is wild. at that point youre just emotionally attached to the bag
doubling down is generous. he is averaging a zero. at -99.9 percent the remaining position is a rounding error on the original 35K
ADX 87.8 is absolutely brutal, that is textbook strong downtrend. no sane person is buying this “dip”
vol 8.24x on an up day though, someone is accumulating. could be a dead cat bounce but worth watching
JUP 52 week high 0.56 and current price rounds to 0.00. there is no analysis framework that makes this a hold. the 35K is already gone
ADX of 87.8 means the trend is so strong its almost mechanical. any bounce is a dead cat until that number breaks below 40
99.9% drawdown with a 15% recommended allocation is the most irresponsible analysis Ive seen published. you dont average into a position thats already at zero
ADX at 87.8 on JUP means any bounce is a dead cat until momentum actually breaks. calling HOLD here iscope not analysis
JUP at Stage 3 with a -99.9 percent drawdown is basically a post-mortem not an analysis. the 35K deployment plan feels like doubling down on a losing position instead of cutting losses
Hye-jin K. calling it a post mortem is generous. a 35K deployment into something down 99.9% with a 59.7% daily ATR is just setting money on fire with extra steps
a post-mortem would at least have a death certificate. oliver keeps calling stage 3 like the chart can still hear him
A 15% allocation down here is the same logic as buying extra lottery tickets after losing. The odds did not improve, the position just got sadder.