Deep Dive Analysis
Jupiter (JUP)
2026-07-24 08:31 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.00
0.00
52W HIGH
0.56
0.56
DRAWDOWN
-99.9%
-99.9%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 4 Bull / 6 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, RSI healthy (52.7), rising 1m & 3m, vol 8.24x on up day
Bearish factors: price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 87.8), distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.7)
JUP Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 52.7 | ADX (14) | 87.8 |
| 50d MA | 0.00 | 200d MA | 0.00 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.00 | Resistance | 0.00 |
| ATR Volatility | 59.7%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| JUP | +8.2% | +5.7% | +16.8% | -56.8% |
| BTC | +4.5% | -13.4% | -10.2% | -31.6% |
| ETH | +7.6% | -8.5% | -13.2% | -40.3% |
| SOL | -7.9% | -10.1% | -17.8% | -45.7% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
0
RETURN
-100.0%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-100.0%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| JUP | -100.0% | -73.4% | -100.0% | 52 | 27% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (JUP)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -56.8% | 9,164 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -50.5% | 17,314 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -39.8% | 21,058 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -34.0% | 23,114 |
JUP Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | -0.00 (-106.0%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-01-14 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-01-15 | SELL | 0.00 | -4.1% |
| 2026-01-16 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-01-17 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.8% |
| 2026-01-18 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-01-19 | SELL | 0.00 | -7.7% |
| 2026-07-14 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-07-15 | SELL | 0.00 | +4.7% |
| 2026-07-16 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-07-17 | SELL | 0.00 | -3.5% |
| 2026-07-18 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-07-19 | SELL | 0.00 | -95.7% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-07-24 08:31 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
-99.9% drawdown and they still rate it HOLD? at that point just call it what it is, dead money
99.9% drawdown and they still call it HOLD? at some point you are just holding a bag of dust my friend
Oliver Schmidt putting a 15% position size on something with a -100% backtest is wild. conservative institutional my ass
59.7% daily ATR volatility is insane even for crypto. this thing moves more than meme coins
ADX 87.8 is absolutely brutal, that is textbook strong downtrend. no sane person is buying this “dip”
vol 8.24x on an up day though, someone is accumulating. could be a dead cat bounce but worth watching