Deep Dive Analysis
Ethereum (ETH)
2026-07-25 09:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1854.00
1854.00
52W HIGH
4953.73
4953.73
DRAWDOWN
-62.6%
-62.6%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 3 Bull / 5 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, RSI healthy (53.8), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.32)
Bearish factors: price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, MACD bear cross, far below high
ETH Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 3092.85
Low: 1386.80
Now: 1854.00
Low: 1386.80
Now: 1854.00
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 53.8 | ADX (14) | 22.1 |
| 50d MA | 1741.21 | 200d MA | 2145.86 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 1510.51 | Resistance | 1955.15 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.33%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| ETH | +4.2% | -12.4% | -21.1% | -40.1% |
| BTC | +1.4% | -16.6% | -14.6% | -32.1% |
| ETH | +4.2% | -12.4% | -21.1% | -40.1% |
| SOL | -9.6% | -13.9% | -23.3% | -46.2% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
21,068
RETURN
+40.5%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-22.6%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| ETH | +40.5% | -30.3% | -22.6% | 55 | 49% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (ETH)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -40.1% | 7,433 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -40.2% | 8,973 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -33.5% | 9,979 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -30.7% | 10,400 |
ETH Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 1730.66 (-6.7%) |
| Target 1 | 2008.00 (8.3%) |
| Target 2 | 2101.00 (13.3%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-08 | BUY | 2306.97 | |
| 2026-05-09 | SELL | 2326.73 | +0.9% |
| 2026-05-10 | BUY | 2369.04 | |
| 2026-05-11 | SELL | 2339.36 | -1.3% |
| 2026-05-12 | BUY | 2274.64 | |
| 2026-05-13 | SELL | 2257.58 | -0.8% |
| 2026-05-14 | BUY | 2280.93 | |
| 2026-05-15 | SELL | 2223.33 | -2.5% |
| 2026-07-22 | BUY | 1933.49 | |
| 2026-07-23 | SELL | 1877.10 | -2.9% |
| 2026-07-24 | BUY | 1860.18 | |
| 2026-07-25 | SELL | 1854.00 | -0.3% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-07-25 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
1854 from 4953. a 62% beatdown and still HOLD. eth holders are built different or just numb at this point
3 bull 5 bear and still HOLD. 15k deployment plan on a -62% asset. genuinely asking who is buying eth at 1854 here, institutional wallets or just copium maxis
Tomasz W. 3 bull 5 bear and they still say HOLD. at some point you have to ask if the analysis is honest or just copium with a disclaimer
Tomasz W. 3 bull 5 bear and HOLD is either disciplined averaging or sunken cost. with OBV rising I lean toward the first but barely
OBV going up while price keeps bleeding is actually interesting. someone is accumulating quietly. vol ratio 1.32 is the only bullish stat that matters here
Pavel K. OBV diverging while price bleeds is the quiet accumulation signal. someone is absorbing the sell pressure at 1854. whether thats smart money or ETF flows is the question
MACD bear cross on ETH while BTC has MACD+. thats the divergence that kills altseason hopes every time. eth needs its own momentum not borrow from btc
1854 from a 4953 high is a 62 percent drawdown. calling that HOLD with a 15k deployment plan is either conviction or denial. the OBV divergence is interesting but not enough