Deep Dive Analysis
Ethereum (ETH)
2026-07-25 09:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1854.00
1854.00
52W HIGH
4953.73
4953.73
DRAWDOWN
-62.6%
-62.6%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 3 Bull / 5 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, RSI healthy (53.8), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.32)
Bearish factors: price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, MACD bear cross, far below high
ETH Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 3092.85
Low: 1386.80
Now: 1854.00
Low: 1386.80
Now: 1854.00
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 53.8 | ADX (14) | 22.1 |
| 50d MA | 1741.21 | 200d MA | 2145.86 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 1510.51 | Resistance | 1955.15 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.33%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| ETH | +4.2% | -12.4% | -21.1% | -40.1% |
| BTC | +1.4% | -16.6% | -14.6% | -32.1% |
| ETH | +4.2% | -12.4% | -21.1% | -40.1% |
| SOL | -9.6% | -13.9% | -23.3% | -46.2% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
21,068
RETURN
+40.5%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-22.6%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| ETH | +40.5% | -30.3% | -22.6% | 55 | 49% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (ETH)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -40.1% | 7,433 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -40.2% | 8,973 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -33.5% | 9,979 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -30.7% | 10,400 |
ETH Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 1730.66 (-6.7%) |
| Target 1 | 2008.00 (8.3%) |
| Target 2 | 2101.00 (13.3%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-08 | BUY | 2306.97 | |
| 2026-05-09 | SELL | 2326.73 | +0.9% |
| 2026-05-10 | BUY | 2369.04 | |
| 2026-05-11 | SELL | 2339.36 | -1.3% |
| 2026-05-12 | BUY | 2274.64 | |
| 2026-05-13 | SELL | 2257.58 | -0.8% |
| 2026-05-14 | BUY | 2280.93 | |
| 2026-05-15 | SELL | 2223.33 | -2.5% |
| 2026-07-22 | BUY | 1933.49 | |
| 2026-07-23 | SELL | 1877.10 | -2.9% |
| 2026-07-24 | BUY | 1860.18 | |
| 2026-07-25 | SELL | 1854.00 | -0.3% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-07-25 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
1854 from 4953. a 62% beatdown and still HOLD. eth holders are built different or just numb at this point
3 bull 5 bear and still HOLD. 15k deployment plan on a -62% asset. genuinely asking who is buying eth at 1854 here, institutional wallets or just copium maxis
Tomasz W. 3 bull 5 bear and they still say HOLD. at some point you have to ask if the analysis is honest or just copium with a disclaimer
Tomasz W. 3 bull 5 bear and HOLD is either disciplined averaging or sunken cost. with OBV rising I lean toward the first but barely
OBV going up while price keeps bleeding is actually interesting. someone is accumulating quietly. vol ratio 1.32 is the only bullish stat that matters here
Pavel K. OBV diverging while price bleeds is the quiet accumulation signal. someone is absorbing the sell pressure at 1854. whether thats smart money or ETF flows is the question
Lior S. quiet accumulation at 1854 or ETF flows propping up price. either way retail is not buying this. base fee still above 5 gwei
MACD bear cross on ETH while BTC has MACD+. thats the divergence that kills altseason hopes every time. eth needs its own momentum not borrow from btc
1854 from a 4953 high is a 62 percent drawdown. calling that HOLD with a 15k deployment plan is either conviction or denial. the OBV divergence is interesting but not enough
Katja N. 62 percent drawdown and still holding is not conviction its called being underwater. OBV divergence means nothing if ETH cant reclaim 2k
ETH at 1854 with 3 bull and 5 bear factors and the call is HOLD. feels like the analyst just doesnt want to be wrong either direction
Boyeon K. calling HOLD on a 62 percent drawdown is just a sell rating with plausible deniability. no analyst wants to tell their audience to take the L
1854 with a 52w high near 5k. holding through a 62 percent drawdown takes conviction or delusion, jury is still out
mara_l the 15k deployment plan at these levels is basically dollar cost averaging into a falling knife. worked in 2022 though
ETH at 1854 with a 52W high near 5K. holding through a 62% drawdown takes conviction most traders dont have
52W high 4953 and now trading at 1854 with a HOLD rating. thats a 62% drawdown being called hold. the 15k deployment plan is basically dollar cost averaging into a falling knife
katrin_eth_ the analysis is using on-chain metrics not just TA. ETH staking withdrawal queue is empty which means no panic selling pressure. different signal than price action alone
Daeun P. empty withdrawal queue also means new staking inflows are flat. nobody is locking up ETH at 1854 expecting a quick flip. the conviction signal is neutral not bullish
15k deployment at these levels is a strong signal. most analysts wouldve called this a sell zone weeks ago
holding through a 62% drawdown while writing a 15k buy plan is either genius or copium. check back in 6 months
ethereum_loop_ 62% drawdown with a 15k buy plan is not copium if your thesis is multi year accumulation. the issue is most people cant stomach seeing 9k turn into 3.4k without panic selling
ETH drawdown of 62 percent sounds bad until you remember it went from 90 to 4800. volatility is the feature not the bug
3 bull 5 bear and the call is HOLD with a 15k deployment. at some point holding through a 62 pct drawdown isnt conviction its just refusal to take a loss
kapital_drift_ or its called dollar cost averaging into the most used smart contract platform on earth. ETH L1 fees are still higher than every L2 combined which means demand is real
Eva N. ETH fees being higher than every L2 combined is not the bullish argument people think it is. it means the base layer is congested and users are leaving for cheaper alternatives