Deep Dive Analysis
Hedera (HBAR)
2026-07-26 15:27 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.07
0.07
52W HIGH
0.40
0.40
DRAWDOWN
-82.5%
-82.5%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 1 Bull / 7 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: MACD+
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, falling 1m & 3m, far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.8)
HBAR Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.15
Low: 0.04
Now: 0.07
Low: 0.04
Now: 0.07
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 47.9 | ADX (14) | 21.4 |
| 50d MA | 0.07 | 200d MA | 0.09 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.07 | Resistance | 0.08 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.57%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| HBAR | -8.0% | -20.8% | -29.1% | -51.9% |
| BTC | +1.8% | -16.0% | -12.5% | -29.8% |
| ETH | +6.4% | -9.5% | -18.1% | -37.3% |
| SOL | -7.9% | -12.0% | -20.8% | -42.7% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
36,923
RETURN
+5.5%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-31.5%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| HBAR | +5.5% | -69.4% | -31.5% | 31 | 36% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (HBAR)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -51.9% | 8,406 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -48.3% | 18,088 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -46.4% | 18,755 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -42.3% | 20,206 |
HBAR Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.07 (-7.1%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-14 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-05-15 | SELL | 0.09 | -2.2% |
| 2026-05-16 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-05-17 | SELL | 0.09 | -1.3% |
| 2026-05-18 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-05-19 | SELL | 0.09 | -1.8% |
| 2026-05-28 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-05-29 | SELL | 0.10 | +9.3% |
| 2026-05-30 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-05-31 | SELL | 0.10 | +1.6% |
| 2026-06-01 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-06-02 | SELL | 0.09 | -5.7% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-07-26 15:27 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
82.5% down from the high and HIGH conviction SELL. feel like im being mocked lol
death cross + OBV distribution + 0.07 price… only 1 bullish factor out of 8. hard to argue with the data here
82.5% drawdown on HBAR and the only bullish factor is a MACD crossover. one bullish signal against seven bearish ones is not a contrarian setup its a trap
0xGraycode the MACD bull is misleading anyway. HBAR bled so hard for 3 months straight that any flattening triggers a crossover. its noise not signal
Oliver putting 35k analysis on HBAR at 7 cents. the enterprise adoption narrative really died huh
^ enterprise adoption was always copium. council members dumping bags on retail since 2022
death cross plus OBV distribution plus 0.8 volume ratio. three independent bearish confirmations. anyone buying this here is hoping for a V bottom with zero structural evidence
council governance model means retail has zero say in protocol upgrades. you are buying a token with no voting rights on a network controlled by Google and IBM. hard pass at any price