Deep Dive Analysis
Hedera (HBAR)
2026-07-26 15:27 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.07
0.07
52W HIGH
0.40
0.40
DRAWDOWN
-82.5%
-82.5%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 1 Bull / 7 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: MACD+
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, falling 1m & 3m, far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.8)
HBAR Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.15
Low: 0.04
Now: 0.07
Low: 0.04
Now: 0.07
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 47.9 | ADX (14) | 21.4 |
| 50d MA | 0.07 | 200d MA | 0.09 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.07 | Resistance | 0.08 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.57%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| HBAR | -8.0% | -20.8% | -29.1% | -51.9% |
| BTC | +1.8% | -16.0% | -12.5% | -29.8% |
| ETH | +6.4% | -9.5% | -18.1% | -37.3% |
| SOL | -7.9% | -12.0% | -20.8% | -42.7% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
36,923
RETURN
+5.5%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-31.5%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| HBAR | +5.5% | -69.4% | -31.5% | 31 | 36% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (HBAR)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -51.9% | 8,406 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -48.3% | 18,088 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -46.4% | 18,755 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -42.3% | 20,206 |
HBAR Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.07 (-7.1%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-14 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-05-15 | SELL | 0.09 | -2.2% |
| 2026-05-16 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-05-17 | SELL | 0.09 | -1.3% |
| 2026-05-18 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-05-19 | SELL | 0.09 | -1.8% |
| 2026-05-28 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-05-29 | SELL | 0.10 | +9.3% |
| 2026-05-30 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-05-31 | SELL | 0.10 | +1.6% |
| 2026-06-01 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-06-02 | SELL | 0.09 | -5.7% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-07-26 15:27 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
82.5% down from the high and HIGH conviction SELL. feel like im being mocked lol
82.5 percent drawdown and a high conviction SELL. hbar_bagholder_88 is right, feels like getting kicked while already on the floor
death cross + OBV distribution + 0.07 price… only 1 bullish factor out of 8. hard to argue with the data here
82.5% drawdown on HBAR and the only bullish factor is a MACD crossover. one bullish signal against seven bearish ones is not a contrarian setup its a trap
0xGraycode the MACD bull is misleading anyway. HBAR bled so hard for 3 months straight that any flattening triggers a crossover. its noise not signal
Oliver putting 35k analysis on HBAR at 7 cents. the enterprise adoption narrative really died huh
^ enterprise adoption was always copium. council members dumping bags on retail since 2022
death cross plus OBV distribution plus 0.8 volume ratio. three independent bearish confirmations. anyone buying this here is hoping for a V bottom with zero structural evidence
council governance model means retail has zero say in protocol upgrades. you are buying a token with no voting rights on a network controlled by Google and IBM. hard pass at any price
Tomer V mentioned council governance. Google and IBM control upgrades and retail has zero voting rights. buying HBAR is buying a token with no governance
council model made sense in 2019 when they needed google and ibm logos on the website. in 2026 its a permissioned database with a ticker
permissioned database with a ticker is the realest thing said about hedera in years. google and ibm logos on a website stopped meaning anything in 2022
permissioned database that enterprises actually run attestation on. council rot is real but the usage never priced, and it never will
buying a token where google and ibm decide protocol upgrades and you have zero voting rights is basically buying preferred stock with no dividends
half the council members quietly stopped running full weight mainnet nodes. the governance page is doing more work than the validators are
HBAR at 0.07 down from 0.40 is an 82% drawdown and you rated it SELL. bit late to the party no?
hbar_bag_ the 35k deployment plan makes sense if you are scaling out of a losing short. SELL at 0.07 is basically saying catch the knife on the way down
52w high of 0.40 trading at 0.07. thats not a sell signal thats a graveyard
graveyard for sure, but theres nobody left to sell at 0.07. everyone who panic exited is already out, volume is just dead
dead volume at the low is how bottoms actually form though. beats a fake reclaim to 0.12 that fails in a week
dead volume marked the 2018 bottom too, but it also preceded every delisting notice. needs a catalyst before the chart means anything
SELL at 0.07 after an 82 pct drawdown is bold. pain is probably priced in, but id want a reclaim of 0.12 before believing any flip
SELL at 0.07 after an 82 percent drawdown is fighting the last war. ratings lag price, theyll flip buy after the reclaim already happened
exactly. same desk will flip BUY at 0.14 and call it conviction. rating changes after the move is the oldest desk trick there is
council model was the right pitch in 2019. in 2026 it just means three corporations control the chain while retail holders fund the marketing