Deep Dive Analysis
Internet Computer (ICP)
2026-07-27 09:18 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
2.17
2.17
52W HIGH
15.56
15.56
DRAWDOWN
-86.0%
-86.0%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · MEDIUM Conviction · 1 Bull / 6 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: MACD+
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, falling 1m & 3m, far below high
ICP Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 5.09
Low: 1.98
Now: 2.17
Low: 1.98
Now: 2.17
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 46.8 | ADX (14) | 9.6 |
| 50d MA | 2.23 | 200d MA | 2.56 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 2.07 | Resistance | 2.39 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.64%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| ICP | -2.3% | -18.8% | -15.4% | -57.4% |
| BTC | +1.7% | -15.7% | -8.6% | -29.9% |
| ETH | +9.4% | -6.9% | -10.8% | -37.1% |
| SOL | -6.9% | -10.3% | -15.4% | -45.8% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
16,509
RETURN
-52.8%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-53.6%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| ICP | -52.8% | -70.6% | -53.6% | 52 | 36% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (ICP)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -57.4% | 13,775 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -34.4% | 22,947 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -36.9% | 22,068 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -29.1% | 24,820 |
ICP Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 2.01 (-7.3%) |
| Target 1 | 2.00 (-7.9%) |
| Target 2 | 3.00 (38.2%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-12 | BUY | 3.18 | |
| 2026-05-13 | SELL | 3.03 | -4.7% |
| 2026-05-14 | BUY | 2.80 | |
| 2026-05-15 | SELL | 2.61 | -6.7% |
| 2026-05-16 | BUY | 2.59 | |
| 2026-05-17 | SELL | 2.54 | -1.9% |
| 2026-05-18 | BUY | 2.59 | |
| 2026-05-19 | SELL | 2.47 | -4.6% |
| 2026-05-25 | BUY | 2.67 | |
| 2026-05-26 | SELL | 2.65 | -1.0% |
| 2026-06-03 | BUY | 3.11 | |
| 2026-06-04 | SELL | 2.72 | -12.3% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-07-27 09:18 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
86% drawdown and they still have believers holding bags. saw the same thing with algo in 2022, everyone calling the bottom at -80% then it kept going
86% drawdown from the 52w high and theyre still calling it AVOID not SELL. feels generous tbh
noma_squawk_ the backtest shows -52.8% with the strategy vs -70.6% buy and hold. so the system actually saved you from the worst of it. the AVOID call is consistent with the data
MACD bullish but everything else is screaming sell. one green signal against six red ones doesnt sound like conviction to me
@Yumi exactly, i see people on ct cherry picking that macd cross like it means something. price is below both 50d and 200d, the trend is your friend here and the friend is saying run
DCA with 12 buys at -29.1% still beat lump sum at -57.4%. wild that spreading buys over a year still lost nearly a third