Deep Dive Analysis
Worldcoin (WLD)
2026-08-27 16:00 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.41
0.41
52W HIGH
4.17
4.17
DRAWDOWN
-90.2%
-90.2%
STAGE
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 6 Bull / 3 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, MACD+, RSI healthy (61.3), strong bull trend (ADX 29.0), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.27)
Bearish factors: death cross, 50d falling, far below high
WLD Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.52
Low: 0.23
Now: 0.41
Low: 0.23
Now: 0.41
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 61.3 | ADX (14) | 29.0 |
| 50d MA | 0.36 | 200d MA | 0.36 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.29 | Resistance | 0.46 |
| ATR Volatility | 7.3%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| WLD | +35.3% | -17.3% | +55.5% | -21.6% |
| BTC | +25.6% | +35.1% | +6.5% | -8.4% |
| ETH | +32.8% | +61.5% | +7.5% | -15.2% |
| SOL | +47.8% | +58.7% | +24.4% | -15.0% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
29,904
RETURN
+99.4%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-36.7%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| WLD | +99.4% | -53.3% | -36.7% | 43 | 54% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (WLD)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -21.6% | 6,404 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -11.5% | 13,278 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -14.0% | 12,898 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -9.6% | 13,564 |
WLD Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.35 (-15.6%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (144.1%) |
| Entry quality | Midrange (R:R 1.4) |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-06-20 | BUY | 0.61 | |
| 2026-06-21 | SELL | 0.60 | -0.8% |
| 2026-06-22 | BUY | 0.62 | |
| 2026-06-23 | SELL | 0.54 | -12.1% |
| 2026-06-24 | BUY | 0.53 | |
| 2026-06-29 | SELL | 0.42 | -20.7% |
| 2026-07-03 | BUY | 0.43 | |
| 2026-07-04 | SELL | 0.43 | -1.9% |
| 2026-08-20 | BUY | 0.37 | |
| 2026-08-21 | SELL | 0.40 | +7.4% |
| 2026-08-26 | BUY | 0.42 | |
| 2026-08-27 | SELL | 0.41 | -1.3% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-08-27 16:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
-90% from the 4.17 high and they still call it a bottoming stage with a BUY. trend following is brave here but respect it, the backtest numbers dont lie i guess
The backtest turning 15k into just under 30k over two years looks nice until you see the -36.7% max drawdown. Most people would have bailed long before the second leg up.
@Tomas thats the whole point of trend following tho, you eat the drawdown to catch the big moves. question is whether WLD at 0.41 has any real move left given it lagged ETH and SOL all year
it lagged ETH and SOL all year which is exactly why a backtest starting at 0.41 is mostly hope. 0.46 on real volume or nothing
accumulation signal plus RSI 61 with room before 82, entering before resistance at 0.46 breaks is the move here. death cross mention is fair but price above both MAs says otherwise imo
90% down from 4.17 and its still a BUY lmao. respect the conviction but the death cross is literally listed in your own bear factors section
trend systems dont care about narratives, price above the 50d and 200d at the same time IS the signal. that said 0.46 resistance is the real test, thats where i wanna see volume
co-sign on the 0.46 watch. ADX at 29 means the trend has legs tho, if it clears resistance with that vol ratio 1.27 still holding this goes fast
adx 29 mid trend is the sweet spot tbh, 45 plus means you already missed it. just need the 0.46 break on real volume now
vol ratio 1.27 is barely above neutral tho. if the 0.46 break comes on the same thin tape it fades like every other wld bounce this year
thin tape fakeout risk is exactly why the starter tranche sits at 0.41 and not a full send. the system sizes its own doubt, kinda elegant
volume is the tell. if 0.46 breaks on a real bid i stop being skeptical, until then its the same wld fakeout
vol ratio 1.27 with a buy call is thin ice for sure. but starter tranche at 0.41 is basically a lottery ticket sized responsibly, the damage is capped
lmao the death cross sitting in their own bear factors while the verdict says BUY. at least the system is transparent about its contradictions
The contradiction is the feature. When the verdict and the bear factors disagree, the sizing answers which one it trusts. 15k across tranches is the system admitting uncertainty.
Backtest turning 15,000 into 29,904 sounds great on paper until you realize the max drawdown was -36.7%. Holding through that in real time is a completely different animal.
greta is right about the -36.7% drawdown, thats the part everyone skips. but the plan deploys in tranches so you are not fully loaded into that first leg down, makes it survivable imo
the -36.7% drawdown is exactly why the tranche table exists tho. starter at 0.41, the rest only deploys on confirmation. thats not brave, its boring on purpose
^ 36.7% on a 15k account is survivable. sizing by portfolio instead of conviction is the whole trick
36.7 percent drawdown on a 15k account is about 5.5k of paper pain. the tranche table is the only reason anyone actually holds through it
Death cross still on the bearish side while everything else flashes green. That contradiction alone tells you this is a stage 1 bottom, not a confirmed reversal. Small size is correct here.
Small size is exactly right. A stage 1 bottom can still retest the lows and the death cross will feel vindicated. Tranches solve that problem.
RSI 61.3 with OBV accumulation is the only reason im even glancing at WLD again. gently, with tiny size
29,904 from 15k over two years sounds great until you remember WLD did a 90% round trip in the middle of it. the tranches are doing the heavy lifting
BUY verdict with the death cross still sitting in its own bear factors column is the most honest thing this system prints. most analysis pieces just hide the contradiction