Deep Dive Analysis
Gram (prev. Toncoin) (GRAM)
2026-08-31 16:01 UTC · Aisha Okonkwo · 10,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.34
1.34
52W HIGH
1.84
1.84
DRAWDOWN
-27.2%
-27.2%
STAGE
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 2 Bull / 5 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 200d, golden cross
Bearish factors: price < 50d, 50d falling, MACD bear cross, RSI weak (42.0), falling 1m & 3m
GRAM Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 1.34
Low: 0.00
Now: 1.34
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 42.0 | ADX (14) | 22.1 |
| 50d MA | 1.43 | 200d MA | 0.60 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 1.30 | Resistance | 1.56 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.56%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| GRAM | -1.9% | -14.7% | +64375.8% | +45539.2% |
| BTC | +21.1% | +31.2% | +3.6% | -11.3% |
| ETH | +28.8% | +57.0% | +6.6% | -17.8% |
| SOL | +36.3% | +47.0% | +21.3% | -17.8% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 10,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
1,377
RETURN
-86.2%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-88.0%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| GRAM | -86.2% | +23438.6% | -88.0% | 42 | 24% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (GRAM)
If you had deployed 10,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +45539.2% | 3,434,952 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +42677.2% | 4,277,722 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +42885.5% | 4,298,546 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +44243.3% | 4,434,327 |
GRAM Deployment Plan — 10,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Aisha Okonkwo (Yield / Staking Focused). If you’re managing a 10,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 2,500 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 1.22 (-9.1%) |
| Target 1 | 1.00 (-25.2%) |
| Target 2 | 2.00 (49.6%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Yield / Staking Focused.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-01-18 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-01-19 | SELL | 0.00 | -2.9% |
| 2026-01-20 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-01-21 | SELL | 0.00 | -1.2% |
| 2026-04-16 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-04-17 | SELL | 0.00 | -18.7% |
| 2026-04-25 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-04-26 | SELL | 0.00 | -27.4% |
| 2026-04-30 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-05-01 | SELL | 0.00 | -7.1% |
| 2026-06-30 | BUY | 1.50 | |
| 2026-07-27 | SELL | 1.46 | -3.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-08-31 16:01 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
+64375% on the 6 month chart and the system still calls it Stage 1 bottoming lmao. these labels are wild sometimes
that 64k% is from when GRAM was basically worth zero, look at 3 months instead. -14.7% while BTC does +31. the bottoming label is fair
-14.7 against BTCs 31 is the only honest number in that whole table imo
golden cross and above the 200d at 0.60, yet below the 50d at 1.43. no wonder conviction is low, the signals literally disagree
that is why the stop sits at 1.22, just under the 1.30 support. tight risk for a stage 1 bottoming play
the signals disagree because the 200d remembers old TON prices and the 50d is pricing the GRAM rebrand. pick your timeframe, pick your answer
based take. TON bagholders renaming to GRAM and hoping the 200d forgets is peak copium, the chart does not care about your ticker
the chart ignores the ticker but the rebrand did buy GRAM a clean registry entry. marginal edge at best, the 1.30 level still does the deciding
the rebrand math is the whole story, the 50d never even saw old TON prices. right frame
they always disagree in stage 1 tho. the 200d reclaim is your floor signal, the 50d is confirmation. you enter between them or you wait, holding is the compromise
Signals disagreeing at stage 1 is normal, that is literally what a bottom looks like. The 200d at 0.60 turning into support while price chops under 1.43 is a base building, not a contradiction.
+64,375% on the 1 year row and it still rates a HOLD. this site never changes lmao
64k percent is what happens when your denominator is basically dust. the only numbers that matter here are the 1.30 support and the 1.22 stop
the 1.22 stop only works if you actually honor it. most people reading a HOLD label will ride it to 0.90 and call it a long term hold
the stop at 1.22 exists because nobody honors it manually. set it on the exchange and stop reading the thread, works every time
this. stops are decorative until the red candle actually prints, most holds become bags exactly the way you describe
RSI 42 with support at 1.30, barely 3% below spot. holding is fine but if that level breaks this gets ugly fast
2 bull vs 5 bear factors and it still says HOLD. the system really just admits stage 1 means nobody knows anything yet
rebrand from TON to GRAM and suddenly the moving averages tell two different stories. shocking lol. ill just wait for a daily close over 1.43
same. RSI 42 under a falling 50d is a wait signal. 1.43 daily close or nothing
falling 50d with RSI 42 is let it come to you territory. the 1.43 daily close is the only trigger that matters
1.43 is the 50d, a daily close above it ends the whole argument. until then we all just stare at the same chart lol
been staring at that same 1.43 line all week. every touch gets sold instantly, feels like it needs actual volume behind the close, not just a wick over it
rebrands dont move price, the 200d at 0.60 does. chopping under 1.43 while everyone argues about the name is base building to me
the 200d remembers a chain with all the telegram hype priced in. until the 50d at 1.43 flips, the rebrand is just confetti on the chart
1.30 support barely 3 percent under spot with the stop at 1.22, the risk math is fine. its the rebrand noise making everyone argue past each other
2 bull vs 5 bear factors and a HOLD is the most honest output possible. the 1.30 support decides everything anyway