Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin Could Hit 1 Million USD by 2030 – But He Is Buying Ethereum for a 3x to 5x Move

Arthur Hayes, the billionaire co-founder of BitMEX, says Bitcoin has every ingredient needed to reach 1 million USD by 2030 — but the asset he is actually buying right now is Ethereum, which he believes could deliver a 3x to 5x return “pretty quickly.”

By Jennifer Kim | September 2, 2026

The Hook: A Seven-Figure Call and a Contrarian Bet

Speaking on the latest episode of Trade Secrets, Hayes laid out his case for a million-dollar Bitcoin over the next four years. His reasoning rests on three big forces: the collapse of the AI bubble, what he calls “massive” money printing by global central banks, and the potential return of yield curve control in the United States — a policy where the government caps borrowing costs on its own debt.

“We have the ingredients. The time is now,” Hayes said, adding that he believes the 58,000 USD level “was probably the bottom in Bitcoin” and that the market is now set to “grind higher” in what he colorfully described as a “hate rally” — a rally that keeps climbing even while most investors remain skeptical.

For everyday investors, the message is striking: one of the most famous traders in crypto history is publicly saying the bear market bottom is already behind us. Bitcoin is trading near 77,000 USD at the time of writing, up more than 22 percent over the past 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap data cited in the interview.

The Evidence: Why Hayes Is Choosing Ethereum

Despite the bullish Bitcoin call, Hayes says his “number one pick” at the moment is Ethereum. His argument is simple: Ethereum is the one major cryptocurrency that has still not broken above its 2021 all-time high, making it the most beaten-down large asset in the market.

“Everybody hates it,” Hayes said. “It’s the one megacap crypto that has not eclipsed its 2021 all-time high.” He pointed out that Ethereum is the base layer for decentralized finance — the plumbing that thousands of lending, trading and stablecoin applications run on — and that it is long overdue for a surge. Ethereum trades near 2,400 USD at the time of writing.

• Ethereum is his top pick — Hayes estimates it “could do 3x to 5x pretty quickly” from current levels.
• The setup is contrarian — widespread pessimism means expectations are low, which historically leaves room for upside surprises.
• It follows Bitcoin — Hayes noted Ethereum already jumped around 20 percent in a recent Bitcoin-led rally, suggesting it moves hard when momentum returns.

The Core Conflict: Cooling on Hyperliquid and Doubts About Trump

Hayes also walked back his enthusiasm for Hyperliquid, the decentralized trading platform whose HYPE token has been one of the market’s strongest performers. “I don’t think there’s that type of asymmetry in the price right now,” he said, explaining that Hyperliquid is no longer an under-the-radar story outperforming expectations — the market now has “massive expectations” priced in.

He was equally blunt about politics. US President Donald Trump recently said the administration is working to bring Hyperliquid into the United States, but Hayes — who was pardoned by Trump in 2024 — said presidential statements have little effect on crypto prices. “What Trump says or does is irrelevant,” Hayes argued. “Read the Treasury, read the Fed, read the monetary authorities.” In other words: follow the money supply, not the headlines.

Hayes also questioned whether Trump would spend the political capital needed to push crypto legislation such as the CLARITY Act through Congress, suggesting the average voter simply does not care about the bill.

Market Implications: The BitMEX Chapter Closes

The interview also touched on a symbolic moment for the industry: BitMEX, the exchange Hayes co-founded in 2014, is shutting down on September 23 and has urged users to close positions and withdraw funds before the deadline. Hayes says it “feels excellent” to close the chapter on his own terms. “We shut it down because we wanted to shut it down, not because we got hacked,” he said. “We landed the plane on our own terms.”

He added that running a crypto exchange today is “really a mug’s game” unless you have the scale of a Binance or an OKX, because the costs of security and technology infrastructure have become enormous.

The Verdict: What This Means for You

Hayes is making a classic contrarian trade: the loudest gains, in his view, sit in the asset everyone has given up on — Ethereum — rather than in Bitcoin or the trendy tokens that have already run. If his macro thesis about money printing and rate suppression plays out, he expects rising liquidity to lift the whole market, with Ethereum offering the best risk-reward of the large caps.

It is worth remembering that Hayes said 58,000 USD was “probably” the bottom — even he hedges. Million-dollar Bitcoin predictions are opinions, not certainties, and a rival analyst, 10x Research head of research Markus Thielen, recently argued on the same program that reaching 1 million USD by 2030 is “mathematically impossible” because the required trillions in inflows are unlikely to materialize. Regular investors should treat this as one informed voice in a loud debate, size their positions carefully, and never invest more than they can afford to lose.

The cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.