Deep Dive Analysis
Falcon USD (USDF)
2026-09-02 15:02 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
2.14
2.14
52W HIGH
2.52
2.52
DRAWDOWN
-14.9%
-14.9%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 1 Bull / 5 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: RSI healthy (55.7)
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, vol 20.0x on down day
USDF Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 2.14
Low: 1.20
Now: 2.14
Low: 1.20
Now: 2.14
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 55.7 | ADX (14) | 10.3 |
| 50d MA | 2.14 | 200d MA | 2.14 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 2.14 | Resistance | 2.14 |
| ATR Volatility | 0.0%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| USDF | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% |
| BTC | +21.4% | +28.2% | -0.7% | -11.8% |
| ETH | +27.2% | +48.5% | +3.2% | -17.7% |
| SOL | +30.9% | +27.7% | +14.6% | -17.6% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
35,000
RETURN
+0.0%
MAX DRAWDOWN
0.0%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| USDF | +0.0% | +0.0% | 0.0% | 0 | 0% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (USDF)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +0.0% | 35,000 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +0.0% | 35,000 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +0.0% | 35,000 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +0.0% | 35,000 |
USDF Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 2.14 (0.0%) |
| Target 1 | 2.00 (-6.6%) |
| Target 2 | 2.00 (-6.6%) |
| Entry quality | Unknown (R:R None) |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-02 15:02 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
ADX at 10.3, ATR 0.0%, flat on every timeframe from 1 month to 1 year. this isnt an asset, its a savings account with extra steps
death cross, below the 50 and 200 day, five bearish factors, and the system still says WAIT instead of exit. serious conviction in doing nothing
Tbf for a stablecoin, doing nothing is the whole job. A backtest that ends at exactly 35,000 is the most honest result I have seen all week.
RSI at 55.7 is the lone bull flag against all that. the 20x volume on a down day is the detail that would have me flat tbh
20x volume on a stablecoin pair is basically someone size-testing the peg, not a trend signal. flat is the only sane read there
Counterpoint: someone size-testing the peg at 20x volume and it did not move a single tick is quietly the most bullish line in the whole piece. that absorption matters more than the death cross here.