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
etfs cut both ways though. inflows were record all august, one hike and those flows reverse faster than they came in
66 percent hike odds priced and btc still holding 77k. either the market doesnt believe the odds or its already in the price. both cant stay true after sept 16
a hike with spot etfs live is genuinely uncharted. the 2015-2018 tightening gutted risk assets and there wasnt a single etf holding btc back then
and now etfs give retail a one click exit. the 2017 style dump took weeks of exchange outages, this one clears in an afternoon
record august inflows means record overhang ready to hit the bid the second the fed actually hikes. etfs are an exit ramp too
warsh’s jackson hole speech moved the odds from 35 to 66 percent in basically two weeks. market isnt pricing a hike, its pricing panic
35 to 66 in two weeks isnt panic, its front running whatever the fed is leaking. someone always knows first
35 to 66 before any official confirmation tells you everything. someone always knows first and its never us
^ this. barr saying ‘decisive’ and polymarket hitting 72 pct is the fed basically announcing it. question is how much is already in the price
25 basis points is nothing. its the balance sheet and the language that matter. everyone staring at the dot plot is missing the actual trade