Deep Dive Analysis
Kaspa (KAS)
2026-09-10 08:30 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.04
0.04
52W HIGH
0.19
0.19
DRAWDOWN
-79.9%
-79.9%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 9 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, 50d rising, MACD+, rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 44.8), breakout above upper band, vol 1.51x on up day, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.34)
Bearish factors: death cross, far below high
KAS Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.05
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.04
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.04
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 76.4 | ADX (14) | 44.8 |
| 50d MA | 0.03 | 200d MA | 0.03 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.03 | Resistance | 0.04 |
| ATR Volatility | 5.27%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| KAS | +35.5% | +28.8% | +14.4% | -17.4% |
| BTC | +7.0% | +23.7% | -0.7% | -13.1% |
| ETH | +6.3% | +41.8% | +6.8% | -20.8% |
| SOL | +15.5% | +29.7% | +20.1% | -23.4% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
24,275
RETURN
-30.6%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-44.3%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| KAS | -30.6% | -41.1% | -44.3% | 51 | 47% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (KAS)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -17.4% | 15,397 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -7.5% | 32,374 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -7.6% | 32,353 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -0.7% | 34,747 |
KAS Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.03 (-22.6%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Extended (R:R 0.7) |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-18 | BUY | 0.03 | |
| 2026-05-19 | SELL | 0.03 | -3.2% |
| 2026-05-20 | BUY | 0.03 | |
| 2026-05-21 | SELL | 0.04 | +1.0% |
| 2026-08-27 | BUY | 0.03 | |
| 2026-08-28 | SELL | 0.03 | -5.1% |
| 2026-09-03 | BUY | 0.03 | |
| 2026-09-04 | SELL | 0.03 | -1.4% |
| 2026-09-05 | BUY | 0.03 | |
| 2026-09-06 | SELL | 0.03 | +5.5% |
| 2026-09-08 | BUY | 0.04 | |
| 2026-09-09 | SELL | 0.04 | +3.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-10 08:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
RSI 76.4 and they call BUY at 0.04 after a 79.9% drawdown from the 0.19 high. trend followers really do live dangerously
That is kind of the point of the system though. ADX 44.8 means the uptrend is real, and you never get clean entries at RSI 40 after a +28.8% month
9 bull factors vs 2 bear on KAS, been a while since a signal looked this lopsided. ADX 44.8 says the trend actually has legs
only thing that bugs me is the death cross still sitting in the bear column. everything else screams deploy tho
wickdrift_ the death cross on a 35k deployment is exactly why the tranche structure exists. first slice at band breakout, rest only if it reclaims the 50 day
-79.9% from the 0.19 high and still flagged Stage 2 uptrend. That is the whole asymmetry argument right there, you are not buying the top of this one.
KAS +28.8% on the month quietly beating BTC at +23.7. blockdag crowd eating good rn
beating BTC from 79% down is just math not alpha lol. speaking as someone still bagholding from 0.12
0xkmay bagholding from 0.12 and still here says more about KAS than any indicator. ghostblocks really do keep the faithful paid eventually
vol 1.51x on an up day plus upper band breakout, thats confirmation not hope. in at 0.04
0.04 entry with vol 1.51x behind it, fair play. im just not adding slice two until the 50 day reclaims, one strong candle doesnt override a death cross on a 35k stack
0.04 entry with vol 1.51x behind it, fair play. im just not adding slice two until the 50 day reclaims, one strong candle doesnt override a death cross on a 35k stack