Deep Dive Analysis
Kaspa (KAS)
2026-09-10 08:30 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.04
0.04
52W HIGH
0.19
0.19
DRAWDOWN
-79.9%
-79.9%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 9 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, 50d rising, MACD+, rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 44.8), breakout above upper band, vol 1.51x on up day, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.34)
Bearish factors: death cross, far below high
KAS Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.05
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.04
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.04
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 76.4 | ADX (14) | 44.8 |
| 50d MA | 0.03 | 200d MA | 0.03 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.03 | Resistance | 0.04 |
| ATR Volatility | 5.27%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| KAS | +35.5% | +28.8% | +14.4% | -17.4% |
| BTC | +7.0% | +23.7% | -0.7% | -13.1% |
| ETH | +6.3% | +41.8% | +6.8% | -20.8% |
| SOL | +15.5% | +29.7% | +20.1% | -23.4% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
24,275
RETURN
-30.6%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-44.3%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| KAS | -30.6% | -41.1% | -44.3% | 51 | 47% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (KAS)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -17.4% | 15,397 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -7.5% | 32,374 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -7.6% | 32,353 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -0.7% | 34,747 |
KAS Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.03 (-22.6%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Extended (R:R 0.7) |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-18 | BUY | 0.03 | |
| 2026-05-19 | SELL | 0.03 | -3.2% |
| 2026-05-20 | BUY | 0.03 | |
| 2026-05-21 | SELL | 0.04 | +1.0% |
| 2026-08-27 | BUY | 0.03 | |
| 2026-08-28 | SELL | 0.03 | -5.1% |
| 2026-09-03 | BUY | 0.03 | |
| 2026-09-04 | SELL | 0.03 | -1.4% |
| 2026-09-05 | BUY | 0.03 | |
| 2026-09-06 | SELL | 0.03 | +5.5% |
| 2026-09-08 | BUY | 0.04 | |
| 2026-09-09 | SELL | 0.04 | +3.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-10 08:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
RSI 76.4 and they call BUY at 0.04 after a 79.9% drawdown from the 0.19 high. trend followers really do live dangerously
That is kind of the point of the system though. ADX 44.8 means the uptrend is real, and you never get clean entries at RSI 40 after a +28.8% month
True, but an ADX print that stretched usually means a pause, not a breakdown. I sized my slice small for exactly that reason
hashratelars RSI 76.4 after +28.8% on the month is the trend doing its job, you dont get ADX 44.8 without heat
hashratelars buying RSI 76 after a 79.9% drawdown is the whole point of trend following, you buy when it finally turns. scary yes, wrong no
fair point on RSI 76.4 but strong trends keep it pinned up there for weeks. id rather take a mediocre entry in stage 2 than wait for a pullback that never comes
9 bull factors vs 2 bear on KAS, been a while since a signal looked this lopsided. ADX 44.8 says the trend actually has legs
only thing that bugs me is the death cross still sitting in the bear column. everything else screams deploy tho
wickdrift_ the death cross on a 35k deployment is exactly why the tranche structure exists. first slice at band breakout, rest only if it reclaims the 50 day
wickdrift_ the death cross lags a +28.8% month by definition, its looking at april. id trust ADX 44.8 over a 50/200 crossover any day
the death cross is from the old leg down, it lags by months on KAS. vol 1.51x on an up day matters way more than a stale cross
The death cross is lagging data though, it formed during the slide from 0.19. By the time the 50d crosses back over the 200d you will have missed half the move
-79.9% from the 0.19 high and still flagged Stage 2 uptrend. That is the whole asymmetry argument right there, you are not buying the top of this one.
KAS +28.8% on the month quietly beating BTC at +23.7. blockdag crowd eating good rn
beating BTC from 79% down is just math not alpha lol. speaking as someone still bagholding from 0.12
0xkmay bagholding from 0.12 and still here says more about KAS than any indicator. ghostblocks really do keep the faithful paid eventually
0xkmay bag from 0.12 to 0.04 and still defending the thesis, respect. tranches exist for exactly this
vol 1.51x on an up day plus upper band breakout, thats confirmation not hope. in at 0.04
0.04 entry with vol 1.51x behind it, fair play. im just not adding slice two until the 50 day reclaims, one strong candle doesnt override a death cross on a 35k stack
waiting on the 50 day reclaim cost you the first leg off the bottom already. second tranches never come cheap when ADX is sitting at 44.8
0.04 entry with vol 1.51x behind it, fair play. im just not adding slice two until the 50 day reclaims, one strong candle doesnt override a death cross on a 35k stack
KAS beating BTC 28.8 to 23.7 this month and nobody notices until the death cross flips. blockdag quietly working
9 bull vs 2 bear and ADX 44.8, strongest KAS setup the engine has printed in weeks. in for a starter tranche at 0.04
starter tranche at 0.04 with ADX 44.8 is fair, but 9 bull factors still cant fix the duplicate tranche_rat comments upthread. clean the page then deploy lol
two tranche_rat comments word for word at 548570 and 548571, the real duplicate bug on this page lmao
nobody mentions the OBV part. accumulation with a 1.34 vol ratio while price is still 79.9% under the 0.19 high, thats the detail that matters imo
blocklathe OBV + 1.34 vol at 79.9% down is the quiet accumulation tell, agreed. same print showed up before the last leg off the bottom