Deep Dive Analysis
Jupiter (JUP)
2026-09-10 15:00 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.00
0.00
52W HIGH
0.56
0.56
DRAWDOWN
-99.9%
-99.9%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 5 Bull / 4 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, 50d rising, RSI healthy (51.7), vol 6.21x on up day
Bearish factors: death cross, far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 64.8), distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.58)
JUP Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 51.7 | ADX (14) | 64.8 |
| 50d MA | 0.00 | 200d MA | 0.00 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.00 | Resistance | 0.00 |
| ATR Volatility | 44.37%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| JUP | -3.0% | +30.1% | +8.5% | -53.4% |
| BTC | +5.9% | +22.4% | -1.7% | -14.0% |
| ETH | +5.0% | +40.0% | +5.4% | -21.9% |
| SOL | +14.2% | +28.3% | +18.8% | -24.2% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
0
RETURN
-100.0%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-100.0%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| JUP | -100.0% | -48.9% | -100.0% | 51 | 33% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (JUP)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -53.4% | 10,680 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -9.1% | 31,832 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +407.4% | 177,598 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +322.5% | 147,862 |
JUP Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.00 (-94.7%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-23 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-24 | SELL | 0.00 | +2.3% |
| 2026-08-25 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-26 | SELL | 0.00 | +1.7% |
| 2026-08-27 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-28 | SELL | 0.00 | -6.2% |
| 2026-08-29 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-30 | SELL | 0.00 | +1.3% |
| 2026-08-31 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-09-05 | SELL | 0.00 | -97.6% |
| 2026-09-06 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| END | SELL | 0.00 | -2.7% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-10 15:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
backtest went to literally zero, -100%, and the system still prints BUY with HIGH conviction. wild stuff
look at the DCA table though. 6 buys returned +407% while lump sum lost half. entry style is doing all the heavy lifting here
a BUY with a death cross and ADX 64.8 sitting in the bearish column. the model is fighting itself lol
The 6.21x volume on an up day is the tell though. One heavy green candle like that can undo a death cross pretty fast.
stop loss at -94.7% on a coin with 44% daily ATR. thats not a stop thats a suggestion lol
a stop below 94 percent loss with 44 percent daily atr means it only triggers on a rug. which, given the -100 percent backtest, is apparently the plan
5,250 position in 3 tranches on something 99.9% off its 0.56 high. conservative portfolio my foot
to be fair the 3 tranche structure is the only reason the backtest survived. lump sum went to literally zero, dca returned 407 percent. sizing is the whole game here
OBV distribution, death cross and ADX 64.8 on the bear side, and this still reads BUY. Ill wait for price to prove the 200d holds first
high conviction BUY where the bear column holds the death cross, ADX 64.8 and OBV distribution. the model is basically betting the 6.21x volume candle flips the trend in one shot