Deep Dive Analysis
Jupiter (JUP)
2026-09-10 15:00 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.00
0.00
52W HIGH
0.56
0.56
DRAWDOWN
-99.9%
-99.9%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 5 Bull / 4 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, 50d rising, RSI healthy (51.7), vol 6.21x on up day
Bearish factors: death cross, far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 64.8), distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.58)
JUP Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 51.7 | ADX (14) | 64.8 |
| 50d MA | 0.00 | 200d MA | 0.00 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.00 | Resistance | 0.00 |
| ATR Volatility | 44.37%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| JUP | -3.0% | +30.1% | +8.5% | -53.4% |
| BTC | +5.9% | +22.4% | -1.7% | -14.0% |
| ETH | +5.0% | +40.0% | +5.4% | -21.9% |
| SOL | +14.2% | +28.3% | +18.8% | -24.2% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
0
RETURN
-100.0%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-100.0%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| JUP | -100.0% | -48.9% | -100.0% | 51 | 33% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (JUP)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -53.4% | 10,680 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -9.1% | 31,832 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +407.4% | 177,598 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +322.5% | 147,862 |
JUP Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.00 (-94.7%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-23 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-24 | SELL | 0.00 | +2.3% |
| 2026-08-25 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-26 | SELL | 0.00 | +1.7% |
| 2026-08-27 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-28 | SELL | 0.00 | -6.2% |
| 2026-08-29 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-30 | SELL | 0.00 | +1.3% |
| 2026-08-31 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-09-05 | SELL | 0.00 | -97.6% |
| 2026-09-06 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| END | SELL | 0.00 | -2.7% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-10 15:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
backtest went to literally zero, -100%, and the system still prints BUY with HIGH conviction. wild stuff
look at the DCA table though. 6 buys returned +407% while lump sum lost half. entry style is doing all the heavy lifting here
model watched the backtest go to literally zero and kept conviction at HIGH. a human would at least flinch down to MODERATE out of shame
honestly the funniest detail. backtest says minus 100 percent and the conviction slider stays pegged at HIGH, no human survives that meeting
a BUY with a death cross and ADX 64.8 sitting in the bearish column. the model is fighting itself lol
The 6.21x volume on an up day is the tell though. One heavy green candle like that can undo a death cross pretty fast.
stop loss at -94.7% on a coin with 44% daily ATR. thats not a stop thats a suggestion lol
a suggestion lol, accurate. 44 percent daily ATR would wick through any honest stop in an afternoon
the stop exists so the report can print a risk management section. nobody trading 44 percent daily atr gets saved by -94.7
not fighting itself, the 6.21x volume candle IS the signal it wants. one of those on JUP rewrites every moving average inside a week
a stop below 94 percent loss with 44 percent daily atr means it only triggers on a rug. which, given the -100 percent backtest, is apparently the plan
5,250 position in 3 tranches on something 99.9% off its 0.56 high. conservative portfolio my foot
^ tranching into something 99.9 percent off the high is averaging down with extra steps, no matter what the backtest says
to be fair the 3 tranche structure is the only reason the backtest survived. lump sum went to literally zero, dca returned 407 percent. sizing is the whole game here
the DCA table is doing the math but calling +407% off a -99.9% base a win is survivorship in a lab coat lol
the 407 percent dca figure is doing magic tricks with a -99.9 base. tranching saved the backtest, it never made the trade good
right, the 407 percent only exists because tranches kept averaging into the collapse. same table reads minus 80 with slightly worse entry dates
OBV distribution, death cross and ADX 64.8 on the bear side, and this still reads BUY. Ill wait for price to prove the 200d holds first
BUY on a death cross with OBV distribution reads like the model got paid per verdict. ADX 64.8 trend strength in the bear column alone should downgrade this to watch
high conviction BUY where the bear column holds the death cross, ADX 64.8 and OBV distribution. the model is basically betting the 6.21x volume candle flips the trend in one shot
0.56 to basically zero and the verdict is HIGH conviction BUY on a death cross. the 6.21x candle better show up fast because ADX 64.8 says the downtrend has fuel
HIGH conviction on a minus 100 backtest should trip a circuit breaker inside the model itself, not just in the comment section
a circuit breaker would defeat the whole trend following premise though. the model waits for that 6.21x volume candle because one of those rewrites every moving average off a -99.9 base
the whole verdict hangs on that one 6.21x candle printing. until it does this is a watchlist coin wearing a buy sticker
a stop sitting 94 percent underwater only exists so the pdf can have a risk management section. ADX 64.8 against the entry is just comedy