Deep Dive Analysis
Flare (FLR)
2026-09-11 08:30 UTC · Marcus Reid · 30,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.01
0.01
52W HIGH
0.04
0.04
DRAWDOWN
-83.5%
-83.5%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 2 Bull / 7 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: 50d rising, strong bull trend (ADX 38.3)
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, MACD-, falling 1m & 3m, far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.76)
FLR Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.01
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.01
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.01
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 45.3 | ADX (14) | 38.3 |
| 50d MA | 0.01 | 200d MA | 0.01 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.01 | Resistance | 0.01 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.67%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| FLR | -16.3% | -4.6% | -15.6% | -43.1% |
| BTC | -1.2% | +20.6% | -1.5% | -14.6% |
| ETH | -1.6% | +37.8% | +6.6% | -20.9% |
| SOL | +6.6% | +27.9% | +19.0% | -25.1% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 30,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
21,420
RETURN
-28.6%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-31.4%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| FLR | -28.6% | -54.2% | -31.4% | 45 | 40% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (FLR)
If you had deployed 30,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -43.1% | 8,362 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -42.2% | 17,354 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -39.1% | 18,280 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -34.0% | 19,791 |
FLR Deployment Plan — 30,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Marcus Reid (Long-term HODLer). If you’re managing a 30,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 4,500 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.01 (-9.4%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 8 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Long-term HODLer.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-27 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-08-28 | SELL | 0.01 | -5.3% |
| 2026-08-31 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-01 | SELL | 0.01 | -5.6% |
| 2026-09-02 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-03 | SELL | 0.01 | +3.4% |
| 2026-09-04 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-05 | SELL | 0.01 | +0.0% |
| 2026-09-06 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-07 | SELL | 0.01 | -2.1% |
| 2026-09-08 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-09 | SELL | 0.01 | -2.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-11 08:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
-83.5% drawdown and still stage 3 topping, brutal. been dcaing flr since 0.02, this article just ends me lol
dca since 0.02 and its 0.01 now… at some point averaging down is just marrying the bag. the 52w high of 0.04 isnt coming back to bail you out
Both profit targets print 0.00 at -100%, that has to be a data bug. Hard to trust the rest of the deployment plan when Target 1 and Target 2 show zeros. The ADX and drawdown numbers look fine though.
not a bug imo, the -100% targets are the model being honest with you. on a SELL plan the upside targets just arent there, 0.00 is the system saying dont bother longing this
same zero targets caught my eye. also a stop at -9.4% on a coin that regularly moves 5% a day means youre out on pure noise within a week
2 bull vs 7 bear factors, ADX 38.3 on a downtrend. This reads like a system that is correctly telling people to stay out. The trade log backs it up with 4 losing round trips this month.
@Marek Falk the whipsaw entries in august (-5.3%, -5.6% back to back) are exactly why i stopped trading the 50/200 crossover on low float alts. atr of 4.67% a day eats every signal
look at that backtest log lol. buy, sell -5.3%, buy, sell -5.6%, one lucky +3.4% and its called a system. 45 trades at 40% win rate is just paying fees to chop yourself up
^ the whipsaw is brutal but it still ended -28.6% while buy and hold did -54.2%. on something that fell from 0.04 to 0.01 even a mediocre system beats just sitting there
40% win rate is fine actually if the winners run, but on a -28.6% vs -54.2% comparison the system earns its keep. agreeing with the SELL while disagreeing with the math hate
FLR down 43% on the year while ETH is only -21% and SOL -25%. AVOID label feels generous tbh