Deep Dive Analysis
Flare (FLR)
2026-09-11 08:30 UTC · Marcus Reid · 30,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.01
0.01
52W HIGH
0.04
0.04
DRAWDOWN
-83.5%
-83.5%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 2 Bull / 7 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: 50d rising, strong bull trend (ADX 38.3)
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, MACD-, falling 1m & 3m, far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.76)
FLR Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.01
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.01
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.01
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 45.3 | ADX (14) | 38.3 |
| 50d MA | 0.01 | 200d MA | 0.01 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.01 | Resistance | 0.01 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.67%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| FLR | -16.3% | -4.6% | -15.6% | -43.1% |
| BTC | -1.2% | +20.6% | -1.5% | -14.6% |
| ETH | -1.6% | +37.8% | +6.6% | -20.9% |
| SOL | +6.6% | +27.9% | +19.0% | -25.1% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 30,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
21,420
RETURN
-28.6%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-31.4%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| FLR | -28.6% | -54.2% | -31.4% | 45 | 40% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (FLR)
If you had deployed 30,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -43.1% | 8,362 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -42.2% | 17,354 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -39.1% | 18,280 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -34.0% | 19,791 |
FLR Deployment Plan — 30,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Marcus Reid (Long-term HODLer). If you’re managing a 30,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 4,500 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.01 (-9.4%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 8 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Long-term HODLer.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-27 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-08-28 | SELL | 0.01 | -5.3% |
| 2026-08-31 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-01 | SELL | 0.01 | -5.6% |
| 2026-09-02 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-03 | SELL | 0.01 | +3.4% |
| 2026-09-04 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-05 | SELL | 0.01 | +0.0% |
| 2026-09-06 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-07 | SELL | 0.01 | -2.1% |
| 2026-09-08 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-09 | SELL | 0.01 | -2.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-11 08:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
-83.5% drawdown and still stage 3 topping, brutal. been dcaing flr since 0.02, this article just ends me lol
dca since 0.02 and its 0.01 now… at some point averaging down is just marrying the bag. the 52w high of 0.04 isnt coming back to bail you out
the airdrop farmers carried flr for years and even they moved on. 0.01 with a 52w high of 0.04 is just gravity
Both profit targets print 0.00 at -100%, that has to be a data bug. Hard to trust the rest of the deployment plan when Target 1 and Target 2 show zeros. The ADX and drawdown numbers look fine though.
not a bug imo, the -100% targets are the model being honest with you. on a SELL plan the upside targets just arent there, 0.00 is the system saying dont bother longing this
same zero targets caught my eye. also a stop at -9.4% on a coin that regularly moves 5% a day means youre out on pure noise within a week
Not a bug in my reading. On a SELL plan the upside targets print zero because the long case was rejected outright. The ADX 38.3 downtrend reading checks out fine.
2 bull vs 7 bear factors, ADX 38.3 on a downtrend. This reads like a system that is correctly telling people to stay out. The trade log backs it up with 4 losing round trips this month.
@Marek Falk the whipsaw entries in august (-5.3%, -5.6% back to back) are exactly why i stopped trading the 50/200 crossover on low float alts. atr of 4.67% a day eats every signal
look at that backtest log lol. buy, sell -5.3%, buy, sell -5.6%, one lucky +3.4% and its called a system. 45 trades at 40% win rate is just paying fees to chop yourself up
^ the whipsaw is brutal but it still ended -28.6% while buy and hold did -54.2%. on something that fell from 0.04 to 0.01 even a mediocre system beats just sitting there
40% win rate is fine actually if the winners run, but on a -28.6% vs -54.2% comparison the system earns its keep. agreeing with the SELL while disagreeing with the math hate
45 trades at a 40 percent win rate on a 4.67 percent daily atr, the chop was always gonna eat itself alive. fees plus spread on flr pairs finish the job
flr at a 4.67 daily atr was never a signal market. the SELL plan losing 28.6 anyway while buy and hold bled 54 tells the whole story
45 trades to lose 28.6 while buy and hold lost 54.2. mediocre system in a brutal market and somehow still the right call to fade every bounce
somehow still the right call is the least celebrated win in systematic trading. nobody retweets losing 28 when holding would have lost 54
Relative performance is the only honest scoreboard in a downtrend. Losing less while fading every bounce is still a skill, even at 0.01.
30k portfolio and even the SELL plan lost 28.6 percent while buy and hold lost 54.2. that comparison is sobering, trimmed my flare bag at 0.015 and stopped pretending the airdrop recovers
FLR down 43% on the year while ETH is only -21% and SOL -25%. AVOID label feels generous tbh
2 bull factors against 7 bear and the verdict still SELL at 0.01. sometimes the model tells you the obvious thing and its still worth printing
system down 28.6, buy and hold down 54.2, and people still call the SELL plan a failure lol. relative pain is the only metric that matters in a downtrend
-28.6 against -54.2 is the entire pitch for systematic selling on an atr 4.67 coin. flr makes buy and hold look like a strategy for donating money slowly
donating money slowly is the most accurate flr description ive read all year. the airdrop crowd learned it in 2023 the hard way