Deep Dive Analysis
Hedera (HBAR)
2026-09-13 08:30 UTC · Marcus Reid · 30,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.08
0.08
52W HIGH
0.40
0.40
DRAWDOWN
-81.2%
-81.2%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 3 Bull / 4 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, 50d rising, strong bull trend (ADX 34.7)
Bearish factors: price < 200d, death cross, MACD-, far below high
HBAR Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.13
Low: 0.04
Now: 0.08
Low: 0.04
Now: 0.08
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 49.1 | ADX (14) | 34.7 |
| 50d MA | 0.07 | 200d MA | 0.08 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.06 | Resistance | 0.09 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.86%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| HBAR | -5.9% | +11.3% | -16.7% | -42.9% |
| BTC | -1.0% | +20.7% | -4.9% | -18.0% |
| ETH | +1.8% | +38.9% | +6.3% | -22.2% |
| SOL | +5.2% | +30.6% | +16.3% | -27.2% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 30,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
31,779
RETURN
+5.9%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-31.5%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| HBAR | +5.9% | -55.8% | -31.5% | 44 | 41% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (HBAR)
If you had deployed 30,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -42.9% | 9,361 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -33.6% | 19,930 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -31.5% | 20,553 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -25.8% | 22,262 |
HBAR Deployment Plan — 30,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Marcus Reid (Long-term HODLer). If you’re managing a 30,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 4,500 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.07 (-7.7%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 8 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Long-term HODLer.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-03 | BUY | 0.08 | |
| 2026-09-04 | SELL | 0.08 | -1.2% |
| 2026-09-05 | BUY | 0.08 | |
| 2026-09-06 | SELL | 0.08 | +1.7% |
| 2026-09-07 | BUY | 0.08 | |
| 2026-09-08 | SELL | 0.08 | -3.5% |
| 2026-09-09 | BUY | 0.08 | |
| 2026-09-10 | SELL | 0.07 | -2.3% |
| 2026-09-11 | BUY | 0.07 | |
| 2026-09-12 | SELL | 0.07 | +0.4% |
| 2026-09-13 | BUY | 0.08 | |
| END | SELL | 0.08 | +0.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-13 08:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
-81% from the 0.40 high and still stage 3 topping, my 2021 bags send their regards
-81% and still holding, respect. my HBAR bags from the 0.28 area have learned to live there
bags from the 0.28 gang checking in. at this point the 0.09 break is more group therapy goal than trade setup
A 2 year backtest that returns 5.9% total is basically a savings account with extra steps. Respect for publishing it anyway.
hard agree with Grete, though tbf the max drawdown matters more than the return here. what was it, like 15%?
a savings account that also hands you a 15 percent drawdown on the way to 5.9 total. the backtest is honest if nothing else
5.9 percent total over the whole window is the part nobody quotes. my savings account did 4 without ever being down 15 on the way, the honest backtest is doing a lot of heavy lifting here
except the savings account never hands the 5.9 back on a green week either. sideways with optionality beats flat forever, thats the whole HOLD case
the 5.9% over two years cuts both ways though. savings account never hands you the 0.09 break either, and thats the whole reason the alert squad exists. optionality is worth the 15% drawdown toll
close through both was my bar too. took the 0.09 ping in march and it faded inside a week, third time might be the charm
5.9 over two years with a 15 drawdown is an index fund that also texts you at 3am. the WAIT verdict is doing everyone a favor
an index fund that texts you at 3am is also one you can exit on a sunday night. try that with the savings account
ADX 34.7 on a strong trend while price sits under the 200d at 0.08 is a weird combo. waiting for the 0.09 break before touching this again.
the 0.09 level has already rejected price twice this month. if the ADX trend is that strong maybe it breaks this week, but im not fronting it
third rejection at 0.09 and people still fronting it. the 200d is right above, let it close through both before deploying a single tranche
5.9% over a 2 year backtest and the verdict is WAIT. the dashboard is basically telling you theres no edge here
no edge is still information. park the 30k elsewhere and set an alert at 0.09, chasing council press releases has burned hbar folks since 2021
the 0.09 alert squad grows by the day. adx says trend, order books say patience, and the council keeps adding names that dont move price
alert at 0.09 is exactly it. took the same trade on algorand last year, council press releases did nothing, the break did everything
parking the 30k and setting the 0.09 alert is the only actionable comment in this whole thread. alerts are free, hbar patience is not
HOLD on HBAR feels right. Governing Council keeps adding real enterprises but price still 40% off that 0.40 high. Patience seems warranted here.
The 30k portfolio breakdown is useful but I would weight the deployment over weeks, not days. HBAR has a habit of chopping sideways after council news fades.
@Liv fair point, staggered entries saved me on my last HBAR tranche. Caught a 9% dip just waiting two weeks.
Council keeps adding enterprises and the token still sits at 0.08. HOLD feels generous, this is more of a wait and see until volume actually shows up
agreed, 10 council members and counting but order books still thinner than the press releases. 0.09 or nothing
0.08 against a 0.40 high while the governing council keeps adding names. fundamentals accrue, token price refuses to care, classic hbar