Deep Dive Analysis
Hedera (HBAR)
2026-09-13 09:30 UTC · Elena Kowalski · 12,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.08
0.08
52W HIGH
0.40
0.40
DRAWDOWN
-81.2%
-81.2%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 3 Bull / 4 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, 50d rising, strong bull trend (ADX 34.7)
Bearish factors: price < 200d, death cross, MACD-, far below high
HBAR Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.13
Low: 0.04
Now: 0.08
Low: 0.04
Now: 0.08
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 49.1 | ADX (14) | 34.7 |
| 50d MA | 0.07 | 200d MA | 0.08 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.06 | Resistance | 0.09 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.86%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| HBAR | -5.9% | +11.3% | -16.7% | -42.9% |
| BTC | -1.0% | +20.7% | -4.9% | -18.0% |
| ETH | +1.8% | +38.9% | +6.3% | -22.2% |
| SOL | +5.2% | +30.6% | +16.3% | -27.2% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 12,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
12,712
RETURN
+5.9%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-31.5%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| HBAR | +5.9% | -55.8% | -31.5% | 44 | 41% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (HBAR)
If you had deployed 12,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -42.9% | 3,744 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -33.6% | 7,972 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -31.5% | 8,221 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -25.8% | 8,905 |
HBAR Deployment Plan — 12,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Elena Kowalski (Aggressive / Contrarian / Deep-Value). If you’re managing a 12,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,000 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.07 (-7.7%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Aggressive / Contrarian / Deep-Value.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-03 | BUY | 0.08 | |
| 2026-09-04 | SELL | 0.08 | -1.2% |
| 2026-09-05 | BUY | 0.08 | |
| 2026-09-06 | SELL | 0.08 | +1.7% |
| 2026-09-07 | BUY | 0.08 | |
| 2026-09-08 | SELL | 0.08 | -3.5% |
| 2026-09-09 | BUY | 0.08 | |
| 2026-09-10 | SELL | 0.07 | -2.3% |
| 2026-09-11 | BUY | 0.07 | |
| 2026-09-12 | SELL | 0.07 | +0.4% |
| 2026-09-13 | BUY | 0.08 | |
| END | SELL | 0.08 | +0.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-13 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
ADX at 34.7 screaming strong trend while price sits under the 200d and a death cross is still active. That is exactly the kind of setup where HOLD is the only sane call. Nice to see the system not forcing a bias.
Replying to spreadzeta_: same contradiction caught my eye. 50d rising with price above it is the only real bull leg here, everything else says the trend structure is broken.
right, ADX at 34.7 under an active death cross usually means the trend is strong DOWN, not strong. RSI parked at 49 is the market shrugging
yeah that ADX 34.7 + RSI 49 combo is the part nobody flags. strong trend readings usually drag RSI to an extreme, not the middle. Says the downtrend is orderly more than anything, holding my small bag and thats that
this. ADX reads strength in both directions and people only quote it when it flatters the bag. trend is down, that is the whole read
exactly, ADX 34.7 with RSI parked at 49 is orderly bleeding, not accumulation. an honest HOLD at 0.08 against a 0.40 high is just damage control for the 12k plan
exactly, adx 34.7 saying strong trend while price sits under a death cross is the most quoted-out-of-context number in ta
adx 34.7 under a death cross is my favorite genre of ta. strong trend, wrong direction lol
3 bull factors vs 4 bear on a LOW conviction read for the 12,000 portfolio. Appreciate the honesty here, most HBAR posts would spin this bullish regardless of the chart.
Torbn Vei agreed, the factor split is refreshing. Would love a follow up if HBAR reclaims the 200d, that flips the whole bear column.
would read that follow up. a 200d reclaim with council deployments actually shipping would flip more than the chart. until then 3 bull vs 4 bear is the honest scoreboard
a 200d reclaim changes everything but the council deployments are the part i keep waiting on. charts fix faster than roadmaps
flatpeg_ waiting on council deployments, been waiting since 2023 my guy. the governing council ships slides, the 200d does the rest
lmao council decks. the 200d reclaim is the only signal here that does not require a keynote
3 bull vs 4 bear and stage 3 still buying is the honest scoreboard. the 200d reclaim flips the chart long before any council deck flips the roadmap
The fourth bear factor barely gets mentioned, price at 0.08 against a 0.40 high is an 80% hole. Honest HOLD beats another hopium entry plan for the 12k portfolio.
agreed on the honesty. next writeup should spell out what actually flips the bear column though, right now the rising 50d is the only leg standing
81 percent underwater from 0.40 and the verdict is still HOLD because the plan says so. at some point HOLD is just a polite word for stuck
polite word for stuck is exactly it. been averaging since 0.20 and the only thing that moved is my cost basis closer to the exit sign
the gap is the story here. council keeps shipping enterprise announcements while the chart says 80 percent drawdown from 0.40. LOW conviction HOLD is the correct read
council news stopped moving hbar two years ago. ibm could announce a pilot tomorrow and the chart would still be bleeding at 0.08
0.08 against a 0.40 high and stage 3 of the deployment plan still buys. at least LOW conviction is the honest label, most HBAR writeups would call this a discount
holding the 12k at 0.08 with 4 bear factors is basically a polite sell. would respect a smaller test position more
Aune Rii said it already, 4 bear factors and a HOLD is a sell with a polite hat on. 0.08 versus the 0.40 high says everything
4 bear factors and a LOW conviction HOLD is the system admitting the chart disagrees with the roadmap. refreshingly honest for an HBAR piece