Deep Dive Analysis
PayPal USD (PYUSD)
2026-09-13 09:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.00
1.00
52W HIGH
1.00
1.00
DRAWDOWN
-0.3%
-0.3%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 3 Bull / 3 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: golden cross, 50d rising, near 52w high
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, falling 1m & 3m
PYUSD Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 1.00
Low: 0.99
Now: 1.00
Low: 0.99
Now: 1.00
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 46.5 | ADX (14) | 20.3 |
| 50d MA | 1.00 | 200d MA | 1.00 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 1.00 | Resistance | 1.00 |
| ATR Volatility | 0.05%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| PYUSD | -0.0% | -0.0% | -0.0% | -0.0% |
| BTC | -1.0% | +20.7% | -4.9% | -18.0% |
| ETH | +1.8% | +38.9% | +6.3% | -22.2% |
| SOL | +5.2% | +30.6% | +16.3% | -27.2% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
14,762
RETURN
-1.6%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-1.6%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| PYUSD | -1.6% | +0.0% | -1.6% | 100 | 0% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (PYUSD)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -0.0% | 15,004 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +0.0% | 15,001 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +0.0% | 15,001 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -0.0% | 15,000 |
PYUSD Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 1.00 (-0.1%) |
| Target 1 | 1.00 (0.0%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (0.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-17 | BUY | 1.00 | |
| 2026-08-22 | SELL | 1.00 | -0.0% |
| 2026-08-24 | BUY | 1.00 | |
| 2026-08-28 | SELL | 1.00 | -0.0% |
| 2026-08-29 | BUY | 1.00 | |
| 2026-08-30 | SELL | 1.00 | -0.0% |
| 2026-09-03 | BUY | 1.00 | |
| 2026-09-07 | SELL | 1.00 | -0.0% |
| 2026-09-08 | BUY | 1.00 | |
| 2026-09-09 | SELL | 1.00 | -0.0% |
| 2026-09-11 | BUY | 1.00 | |
| 2026-09-12 | SELL | 1.00 | -0.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-13 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
100 backtest trades on a stablecoin and a 0% win rate is the funniest thing ive read all week. the algo somehow lost money on a peg lmao
To be fair, the -1.6% strategy return vs 0.0% buy and hold is the real takeaway from that log. Churning a peg 100 times just bleeds fees. HOLD is the only sane call here.
Agreed on the fee bleed. 100 round trips on a dollar peg to end at 14,762 is just a donation to the exchange with extra steps.
stop loss 0.1% below peg on a coin that printed 1.00 all year. genius risk management right there
100 trades, 0% win rate on a coin that is literally pegged to a dollar, and the backtest only lost 1.6%. whoever ran a 50d/200d crossover on PYUSD owes me an explanation lol
reply to the backtest guy: its basically a fee drag simulator. 15k to 14,762 is just costs slowly eating a peg
The crossover framing is a bit odd for a stablecoin, but as a depeg monitor it works. ADX at 20.3 and ATR of 0.05% daily means the peg is boring, which for PYUSD is the whole point.
0.05% daily ATR and people still want trading signals on this. the most bullish thing PYUSD can do is stay boring at 1.00
HOLD verdict while BTC did +20.7% and ETH +38.9% over 3 months. The opportunity cost is the real story, not the peg.
opportunity cost cuts both ways. those BTC and ETH gains came with 30% drawdowns too, some of us are fine parking 15k at 1.00 while the peg just does its job