Deep Dive Analysis
PayPal USD (PYUSD)
2026-09-13 09:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.00
1.00
52W HIGH
1.00
1.00
DRAWDOWN
-0.3%
-0.3%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 3 Bull / 3 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: golden cross, 50d rising, near 52w high
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, falling 1m & 3m
PYUSD Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 1.00
Low: 0.99
Now: 1.00
Low: 0.99
Now: 1.00
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 46.5 | ADX (14) | 20.3 |
| 50d MA | 1.00 | 200d MA | 1.00 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 1.00 | Resistance | 1.00 |
| ATR Volatility | 0.05%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| PYUSD | -0.0% | -0.0% | -0.0% | -0.0% |
| BTC | -1.0% | +20.7% | -4.9% | -18.0% |
| ETH | +1.8% | +38.9% | +6.3% | -22.2% |
| SOL | +5.2% | +30.6% | +16.3% | -27.2% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
14,762
RETURN
-1.6%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-1.6%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| PYUSD | -1.6% | +0.0% | -1.6% | 100 | 0% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (PYUSD)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -0.0% | 15,004 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +0.0% | 15,001 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +0.0% | 15,001 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -0.0% | 15,000 |
PYUSD Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 1.00 (-0.1%) |
| Target 1 | 1.00 (0.0%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (0.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-17 | BUY | 1.00 | |
| 2026-08-22 | SELL | 1.00 | -0.0% |
| 2026-08-24 | BUY | 1.00 | |
| 2026-08-28 | SELL | 1.00 | -0.0% |
| 2026-08-29 | BUY | 1.00 | |
| 2026-08-30 | SELL | 1.00 | -0.0% |
| 2026-09-03 | BUY | 1.00 | |
| 2026-09-07 | SELL | 1.00 | -0.0% |
| 2026-09-08 | BUY | 1.00 | |
| 2026-09-09 | SELL | 1.00 | -0.0% |
| 2026-09-11 | BUY | 1.00 | |
| 2026-09-12 | SELL | 1.00 | -0.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-13 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
100 backtest trades on a stablecoin and a 0% win rate is the funniest thing ive read all week. the algo somehow lost money on a peg lmao
To be fair, the -1.6% strategy return vs 0.0% buy and hold is the real takeaway from that log. Churning a peg 100 times just bleeds fees. HOLD is the only sane call here.
Agreed on the fee bleed. 100 round trips on a dollar peg to end at 14,762 is just a donation to the exchange with extra steps.
238 dollars in round-trip fees to learn a peg doesnt move. cheapest tuition in crypto honestly
stop loss 0.1% below peg on a coin that printed 1.00 all year. genius risk management right there
100 trades, 0% win rate on a coin that is literally pegged to a dollar, and the backtest only lost 1.6%. whoever ran a 50d/200d crossover on PYUSD owes me an explanation lol
reply to the backtest guy: its basically a fee drag simulator. 15k to 14,762 is just costs slowly eating a peg
the 50/200 cross on a coin that printed 1.00 all year is peak algo content. it sat through 100 trades waiting for a depeg that never came lol
The crossover framing is a bit odd for a stablecoin, but as a depeg monitor it works. ADX at 20.3 and ATR of 0.05% daily means the peg is boring, which for PYUSD is the whole point.
HOLD rating on a stablecoin is comedy. the only two options are it stays at 1.00 or something is very wrong
0.05% daily ATR and people still want trading signals on this. the most bullish thing PYUSD can do is stay boring at 1.00
boring at 1.00 is the product working as designed. giving it a topping stage label is the comedy part of the review
staying boring at 1.00 is the product tho. nobody holds a paypal dollar for excitement
boring is the product until paypal changes the yield terms. 1.00 today says nothing about what the issuer decides the dollar is worth holding tomorrow
HOLD verdict while BTC did +20.7% and ETH +38.9% over 3 months. The opportunity cost is the real story, not the peg.
opportunity cost cuts both ways. those BTC and ETH gains came with 30% drawdowns too, some of us are fine parking 15k at 1.00 while the peg just does its job
fair point on drawdowns, but a savings account at least pays yield. parking 15k in a plain stablecoin with zero interest is volunteering for the fee bleed
opportunity cost sure, but the log itself shows 14,762 after 100 round trips. 1.6 percent burned for zero signal, a savings account beats churning the peg
savings account doesnt charge gas fees to teach you nothing either. 100 round trips to rediscover the number 1.00, legendary dedication to the scientific method
ADX 20.3 printed on a dollar coin might be the most pointless indicator of the year. the peg held, thats the entire review, close the chart
and the 52w high literally being 1.00 in the header is the funniest data point. chart porn for a coin that refuses to chart
adx 20.3 on a stablecoin is content farm filler, you said it cleaner than i could lol
100 trades to confirm a peg holds is the most expensive sanity check in finance. respect for finishing it and publishing the number anyway
14,762 after 100 round trips is the entire review in one number. PYUSD is for settling invoices, the trading side should have logged off around trade ten.
14,762 ending balance after 100 round trips is such a clean datapoint. every stablecoin trading tutorial should be legally required to open with that chart