Deep Dive Analysis
Kaspa (KAS)
2026-09-15 16:01 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.03
0.03
52W HIGH
0.19
0.19
DRAWDOWN
-82.4%
-82.4%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 8 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, 50d rising, MACD+, RSI healthy (55.9), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 46.1), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.18)
Bearish factors: death cross, far below high
KAS Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.05
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.03
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.03
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 55.9 | ADX (14) | 46.1 |
| 50d MA | 0.03 | 200d MA | 0.03 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.03 | Resistance | 0.04 |
| ATR Volatility | 6.4%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| KAS | +20.5% | +16.6% | -5.8% | -31.8% |
| BTC | -3.4% | +16.9% | -5.1% | -16.9% |
| ETH | -1.4% | +27.5% | +5.2% | -23.9% |
| SOL | +2.4% | +27.2% | +11.9% | -27.4% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
9,520
RETURN
-36.5%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-44.3%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| KAS | -36.5% | -48.7% | -44.3% | 54 | 46% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (KAS)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -31.8% | 5,794 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -23.1% | 11,541 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -17.4% | 12,396 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -10.0% | 13,493 |
KAS Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.03 (-12.8%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-03 | BUY | 0.03 | |
| 2026-09-04 | SELL | 0.03 | -1.4% |
| 2026-09-05 | BUY | 0.03 | |
| 2026-09-06 | SELL | 0.03 | +5.5% |
| 2026-09-08 | BUY | 0.04 | |
| 2026-09-09 | SELL | 0.04 | +3.0% |
| 2026-09-10 | BUY | 0.04 | |
| 2026-09-11 | SELL | 0.04 | +1.4% |
| 2026-09-12 | BUY | 0.04 | |
| 2026-09-13 | SELL | 0.03 | -5.5% |
| 2026-09-14 | BUY | 0.03 | |
| 2026-09-15 | SELL | 0.03 | -4.5% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-15 16:01 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
25% of a 15k portfolio into KAS with a stop at -12.8%? thats bolder than my whole risk budget lol. blockdag guy still runs hot though
25% allocation with a -12.8% stop is like 3% book risk, honestly fine. sizing looks bold but the math is not insane
The DCA backtest numbers are the real story here. 12 buys averaged to -10% vs lump sum getting shredded. Most people skip that table and just ape.
^ hard agree on the DCA part. entry quality pullback is doing a lot of heavy lifting on this BUY call tho, ADX better hold
82% drawdown and it still prints a BUY, trend systems are brave lol. ADX 46 is no joke tho
thats the whole point of trend following, you buy strength not bottoms. the death cross factor is lagging data anyway
RSI 55.9 plus OBV accumulation is the only reason id trust this signal. 0.04 resistance is the real test
0.04 has been a wall for months imo, needs real volume to break it
volume is the whole question. OBV leans up but every test of 0.04 this year died at the exact same spot
OBV says accumulation is already happening under that wall. if 0.04 breaks on real volume this moves violent fast