Deep Dive Analysis
Kaspa (KAS)
2026-09-15 16:01 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.03
0.03
52W HIGH
0.19
0.19
DRAWDOWN
-82.4%
-82.4%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 8 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, 50d rising, MACD+, RSI healthy (55.9), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 46.1), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.18)
Bearish factors: death cross, far below high
KAS Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.05
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.03
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.03
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 55.9 | ADX (14) | 46.1 |
| 50d MA | 0.03 | 200d MA | 0.03 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.03 | Resistance | 0.04 |
| ATR Volatility | 6.4%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| KAS | +20.5% | +16.6% | -5.8% | -31.8% |
| BTC | -3.4% | +16.9% | -5.1% | -16.9% |
| ETH | -1.4% | +27.5% | +5.2% | -23.9% |
| SOL | +2.4% | +27.2% | +11.9% | -27.4% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
9,520
RETURN
-36.5%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-44.3%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| KAS | -36.5% | -48.7% | -44.3% | 54 | 46% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (KAS)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -31.8% | 5,794 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -23.1% | 11,541 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -17.4% | 12,396 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -10.0% | 13,493 |
KAS Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.03 (-12.8%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-03 | BUY | 0.03 | |
| 2026-09-04 | SELL | 0.03 | -1.4% |
| 2026-09-05 | BUY | 0.03 | |
| 2026-09-06 | SELL | 0.03 | +5.5% |
| 2026-09-08 | BUY | 0.04 | |
| 2026-09-09 | SELL | 0.04 | +3.0% |
| 2026-09-10 | BUY | 0.04 | |
| 2026-09-11 | SELL | 0.04 | +1.4% |
| 2026-09-12 | BUY | 0.04 | |
| 2026-09-13 | SELL | 0.03 | -5.5% |
| 2026-09-14 | BUY | 0.03 | |
| 2026-09-15 | SELL | 0.03 | -4.5% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-15 16:01 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
25% of a 15k portfolio into KAS with a stop at -12.8%? thats bolder than my whole risk budget lol. blockdag guy still runs hot though
25% allocation with a -12.8% stop is like 3% book risk, honestly fine. sizing looks bold but the math is not insane
25% of 15k is like 4k exposure on a coin that does 8% days. brave, but the stop discipline is the actual edge here
4k on a coin that does 8% days is only scary the first time. The backtest table convinced me more than the signal did, lump sum got shredded in the same data.
The DCA backtest numbers are the real story here. 12 buys averaged to -10% vs lump sum getting shredded. Most people skip that table and just ape.
^ hard agree on the DCA part. entry quality pullback is doing a lot of heavy lifting on this BUY call tho, ADX better hold
the lump sum shredding in that table is exactly why i stopped aping entries. averaging to -10 percent is ugly math but it beats catching the knife once
that DCA table works because 12 staggered entries is basically a synthetic limit order ladder. nothing magic, position sizing with extra steps. still beats the guy aping the full 15k at the first green candle
twelve entries across weeks for a 4k position on a coin that does 8 percent days. the ladder is emotional armor more than edge
ghostdag cheerleading aside, buying an 82 percent drawdown with ADX at 46 is a legit trend signal. just keep that stop honest, KAS has burned brave people before
82% drawdown and it still prints a BUY, trend systems are brave lol. ADX 46 is no joke tho
thats the whole point of trend following, you buy strength not bottoms. the death cross factor is lagging data anyway
RSI 55.9 plus OBV accumulation is the only reason id trust this signal. 0.04 resistance is the real test
0.04 has been a wall for months imo, needs real volume to break it
volume is the whole question. OBV leans up but every test of 0.04 this year died at the exact same spot
Every 0.04 test also came with OBV flat. This one has accumulation underneath it, that is the difference people keep missing.
same spot yes, but never with ADX 46 behind it. volume is still the question tho, agreed there
OBV says accumulation is already happening under that wall. if 0.04 breaks on real volume this moves violent fast
OBV only means accumulation if the wallets behind it are fresh. KAS is small enough that three exchange wallets doing cold storage moves paint the same green. i want the 0.04 break with real volume before trusting any of it
fair point on the OBV, three cold wallet shuffles paint the same green on a coin this size. the 0.04 break with real volume is the only tradeable tell here
a BUY signal 82 percent down is just math noticing the downtrend ended. ADX 46 says trend strength, it says nothing about 0.04 rejecting price five times in a row. stops earn this trade, entries do not
exactly, ADX 46 with five rejections at 0.04 means the stop IS the trade. the 25% sizing looks spicy till you notice the -12.8% stop is doing all the risk management
stops earn the trade, exactly. the lump sum backtest column is the whole argument and people still skip straight to the BUY tag
everyone dunking on the death cross like its news. its a lagging indicator on a coin that already gave you -82%, the trend flip is the information here
0.03 against a 52w high of 0.19 and the engine calls BUY because trend turned. thats literally the trend following pitch, you buy ugly recoveries