Deep Dive Analysis
Flare (FLR)
2026-09-17 10:30 UTC · Elena Kowalski · 12,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.01
0.01
52W HIGH
0.04
0.04
DRAWDOWN
-83.5%
-83.5%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 1 Bull / 7 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: strong bull trend (ADX 36.3)
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, RSI weak (44.9), falling 1m & 3m, far below high
FLR Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.01
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.01
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.01
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 44.9 | ADX (14) | 36.3 |
| 50d MA | 0.01 | 200d MA | 0.01 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.01 | Resistance | 0.01 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.48%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| FLR | -6.0% | -5.2% | -22.9% | -44.4% |
| BTC | -4.8% | +19.7% | -5.3% | -15.6% |
| ETH | -2.9% | +30.8% | +4.7% | -21.0% |
| SOL | -8.5% | +32.8% | +7.3% | -26.4% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 12,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
8,000
RETURN
-33.3%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-35.9%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| FLR | -33.3% | -52.3% | -35.9% | 47 | 38% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (FLR)
If you had deployed 12,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -44.4% | 3,187 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -38.9% | 7,334 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -39.2% | 7,297 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -35.1% | 7,787 |
FLR Deployment Plan — 12,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Elena Kowalski (Aggressive / Contrarian / Deep-Value). If you’re managing a 12,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,000 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.01 (-9.0%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Aggressive / Contrarian / Deep-Value.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-02 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-03 | SELL | 0.01 | +3.4% |
| 2026-09-04 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-05 | SELL | 0.01 | +0.0% |
| 2026-09-06 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-07 | SELL | 0.01 | -2.1% |
| 2026-09-08 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-09 | SELL | 0.01 | -2.0% |
| 2026-09-12 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-13 | SELL | 0.01 | -1.6% |
| 2026-09-14 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-15 | SELL | 0.01 | -5.1% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-17 10:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
the single bull factor is ADX 36.3, meaning the trend is strong. the trend is straight down. thanks system, very reassuring
ADX 36.3 on a downtrend is the most honest line in the whole factor table. the system basically told on itself
83.5% drawdown from the high and the system still says AVOID. that takes discipline. i held flr all through 2022 wishing i had rules like this
the 38% win rate is wild. system lost a third of the portfolio and that is STILL better than buy and hold losing half. stats here are brutal
38% win rate scalps beating hold by 19 points is the most backtest flavored stat ive ever seen. show me the slippage on those entries
ran similar scalps on flr pairs last month, slippage ate about a third of the edge on market orders. limit entries only or dont bother
0.01 now, 0.04 for the 52w high. that is a 4x just to visit the old top. even the SELL label feels generous for flr
flr at 0.01 with 7 bear factors vs 1 bull. that aint a dip thats a falling knife convention
falling knife convention lmao. 50d falling + death cross + RSI 44.9, literally nothing here to catch
knives pay rent when ATR is 4.5% a day tho. those scalps in the trade log only won 38% of the time and still beat holding by 19 points