Deep Dive Analysis
Gram (prev. Toncoin) (TON)
2026-09-19 08:30 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.01
0.01
52W HIGH
32.02
32.02
DRAWDOWN
-100.0%
-100.0%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · MEDIUM Conviction · 2 Bull / 5 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: RSI healthy (53.0), vol 20.0x on up day
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, far below high
TON Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.01
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.01
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.01
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 53.0 | ADX (14) | 15.1 |
| 50d MA | 0.01 | 200d MA | 0.01 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.01 | Resistance | 0.01 |
| ATR Volatility | 1.79%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| TON | +0.2% | -27.6% | -15.9% | -23.0% |
| BTC | +3.9% | +25.4% | -0.6% | -10.5% |
| ETH | +7.6% | +42.0% | +13.0% | -15.2% |
| SOL | +6.1% | +48.5% | +15.1% | -19.6% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
0
RETURN
-100.0%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-100.0%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| TON | -100.0% | -98.4% | -100.0% | 39 | 20% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (TON)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -23.0% | 13,983 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -25.9% | 25,943 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -24.1% | 26,561 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -19.6% | 28,148 |
TON Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.01 (-3.6%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Midrange (R:R 1.5) |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-27 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-05-28 | SELL | 0.01 | -1.1% |
| 2026-06-01 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-06-02 | SELL | 0.01 | -3.0% |
| 2026-06-04 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-06-23 | SELL | 0.01 | -8.9% |
| 2026-07-02 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-07-08 | SELL | 0.01 | -0.6% |
| 2026-07-10 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-07-13 | SELL | 0.01 | -1.4% |
| 2026-07-14 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-07-16 | SELL | 0.01 | -2.1% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-19 08:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
price 0.01 and a -100% backtest ending at literally zero. whoever held Gram from the 32 high my condolences, that is a full wipeout
“vol 20x on up day” listed as a BULL factor when the coin trades at one cent. thats just exit liquidity moving in bulk lmao
^ exactly. 20x volume at this price is whales dumping remnants, not accumulation. AVOID tag is doing heavy lifting here
agree on AVOID but even remnant bags dont need 20x volume to exit. smells more like the swap arb crowd churning the new token
one cent exit liquidity is still exit liquidity lmao. the bagholders from the 32 high take what they can get
renamed to Gram and now the chart shows 0.01 down from a 32 high, that has to be a data glitch right? -100% drawdown on something that still trades lol
its not a glitch, the feed rebased after the token swap. but the avoid call is right either way, price under both the 50d and 200d with a death cross, nothing to catch here
the rebase explains the broken chart but not the 20x vol, someone still pushed a fortune through this thing at one cent
most of that 20x is the swap crowd cycling the rebased token. count trades instead of usd, its a thousand tiny churns not real money entering
a thousand tiny churns at one cent is still someone making the market both ways. classic swap crowd rinse on the rebased token
under both mas with a death cross and they still gave the 20x vol spike a bull point. the chart said AVOID before the writeup did
vol 20x on an up day and still only 2 bull factors vs 5 bear. trend systems truly do not care about your one green candle
A 20x volume spike counted as a bull factor while the backtest literally ends at zero might be the most trend system thing i have ever read
the system also gave the rebase a bull point for surviving. trend models just describe the wreckage after the fact
price column says 0.01 and the sell thesis still needs four paragraphs. some charts you just screenshot and go
35k portfolio plan attached to a SELL on a one cent token is comedy. size it at half a percent and move on, no four paragraphs needed
renaming toncoin to gram and printing 0.01 down from the 32 high. the rebrand is a fresh coat of paint on the losses, sell tag earned
0.01 from a 32 dollar high and they renamed the token, thats a full cycle of pain right there. even as a sell call this feels like closing the barn door post horse
SELL at 99.9 percent down is bold analysis ngl. who exactly is left to sell at one cent
the 2021 stakers answered this already, cost basis near 5 means they are not selling, they are wallpapering the loss
the sellers are the 2021 stakers still unlocking, one cent vs their cost basis of like 5. someone is always left to sell, thats the whole problem
cost basis around 5 for the 2021 stakers checks out, at 0.01 they are not selling, they are filing it under lessons learned
filing it under lessons learned with a cost basis of 5 is the most relatable thing ive read all week
who is left to sell is the right question and the answer is basically nobody with size. a SELL tag on a one cent token is analyst theater
a SELL tag on a one cent token is content, not a call. nobody reading this was deciding anything