Deep Dive Analysis
Shiba Inu (SHIB)
2026-09-19 10:30 UTC · Aisha Okonkwo · 10,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.00
0.00
52W HIGH
0.00
0.00
DRAWDOWN
-0%
-0%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 6 Bull / 1 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: 50d rising, MACD bull cross, RSI healthy (60.7), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 80.8), vol 1.25x on up day
Bearish factors: far below high
SHIB Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 60.7 | ADX (14) | 80.8 |
| 50d MA | 0.00 | 200d MA | 0.00 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.00 | Resistance | 0.00 |
| ATR Volatility | 5.97%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| SHIB | +8.8% | +36.0% | -22.3% | -32.0% |
| BTC | +3.9% | +25.4% | -0.6% | -10.5% |
| ETH | +7.6% | +42.0% | +13.0% | -15.2% |
| SOL | +6.1% | +48.5% | +15.1% | -19.6% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 10,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
3,384
RETURN
-66.2%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-66.2%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| SHIB | -66.2% | -50.5% | -66.2% | 48 | 6% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (SHIB)
If you had deployed 10,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -32.0% | 4,185 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -20.2% | 7,976 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -18.7% | 8,127 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -14.7% | 8,527 |
SHIB Deployment Plan — 10,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Aisha Okonkwo (Yield / Staking Focused). If you’re managing a 10,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 2,500 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.00 (nan%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (nan%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (nan%) |
| Entry quality | Unknown (R:R None) |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Yield / Staking Focused.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-04 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-09-05 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-09-06 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-09-07 | SELL | 0.00 | -16.7% |
| 2026-09-08 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-09-09 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-09-10 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-09-11 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-09-12 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-09-13 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-09-19 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| END | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-19 10:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
backtest says -66.2% over 2 years and the verdict is still HOLD because ADX 80.8. trend following a meme coin is comedy
strong ADX just means the +36% 3 month run already happened. you are reading the headline after the punchline
tbf the hold verdict is riding the +8.8% 1m momentum while everything else bleeds. the -66.2% 2y backtest is a different regime entirely, the engine is not blind to that gap
the comedy is the point. ADX 80.8 measures trend strength, a strong downtrend scores the same as a strong uptrend. direction matters more than the number
lmao the trend following backtest lost 66% while plain buy and hold only lost 50% on SHIB. 48 trades, 6% win rate. incredible work all around
^ 6% win rate is wild. at that point just set the money on fire, fewer fees. also +8.8% on 1m while -32% on 1y is textbook dead cat territory
48 trades at 6% is basically 3 winners. one lucky long and the whole stats table means nothing
48 trades to lose 66% is honestly efficient. and the system still prints HOLD because the indicators say uptrend, the indicators are the product here, the returns arent
ADX at 80.8 and a Stage 2 uptrend tag, yet the verdict is wait. Six bullish factors against one bearish. Either the system trusts its filters or it does not.
DCA 12 buys landing at -14.7% vs lump sum -32% is the quietest brutal table ive seen all week. averaging into a -22% 6 month trend, brave
12 buys landing at -14.7% vs -32% lump still feels bad until you remember SHIB once did a 40x in a month. sizing discipline beats timing on memes, always has
+8.8% on the month while -32% on the year is the most meme coin sentence ever written. hold i guess lol