Deep Dive Analysis
Flare (FLR)
2026-09-23 09:30 UTC · Elena Kowalski · 12,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.01
0.01
52W HIGH
0.04
0.04
DRAWDOWN
-80.4%
-80.4%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 10 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, 50d rising, MACD+, RSI healthy (68.2), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 38.9), breakout above upper band, vol 1.98x on up day, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.24)
Bearish factors: death cross, far below high
FLR Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.01
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.01
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.01
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 68.2 | ADX (14) | 38.9 |
| 50d MA | 0.01 | 200d MA | 0.01 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.01 | Resistance | 0.01 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.18%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| FLR | +12.7% | +10.6% | -19.9% | -34.7% |
| BTC | +11.4% | +29.6% | +6.3% | -11.1% |
| ETH | +13.6% | +42.5% | +20.5% | -18.1% |
| SOL | +18.0% | +51.1% | +28.1% | -19.6% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 12,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
8,864
RETURN
-26.1%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-35.9%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| FLR | -26.1% | -50.2% | -35.9% | 50 | 40% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (FLR)
If you had deployed 12,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -34.7% | 3,615 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -26.2% | 8,862 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -22.9% | 9,258 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -19.8% | 9,621 |
FLR Deployment Plan — 12,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Elena Kowalski (Aggressive / Contrarian / Deep-Value). If you’re managing a 12,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,000 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.01 (-14.1%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Extended (R:R 0.89) |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Aggressive / Contrarian / Deep-Value.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-08 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-09 | SELL | 0.01 | -2.0% |
| 2026-09-12 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-13 | SELL | 0.01 | -1.6% |
| 2026-09-14 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-15 | SELL | 0.01 | -5.1% |
| 2026-09-17 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-18 | SELL | 0.01 | +3.2% |
| 2026-09-19 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-20 | SELL | 0.01 | -0.8% |
| 2026-09-21 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-23 | SELL | 0.01 | +8.1% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-23 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
12,000 becomes 8,864 in their own two year backtest and the verdict is still BUY at HIGH conviction lol. at least they published the number i guess
The -26% backtest includes the death cross exits dragging through chop. The live signal is the 10 bull vs 2 bear factors with ADX at 38.9, that trend strength is real
been holding since the FTSO airdrop days, an 80% drawdown with price above both the 50d and 200d is the most FLR thing ever. vol 1.98x on an up day tho, someone is finally buying
RSI at 68.2 and they still call it healthy? usually that window is where the pullback starts, not where i deploy 12k
RSI at 68.2 and they still call it healthy? usually that window is where the pullback starts, not where i deploy 12k
RSI at 68.2 is already stretched. I bought Flare in 2023 and watched it do nothing for a year. Stage 2 uptrend or not, I want a pullback toward support first
waiting for a pullback in a Stage 2 breakout with 2x volume is how you end up chasing at the top instead lol
FLR is down 34.7% on the year while ETH and SOL are green, and the takeaway is BUY. Bold.
the OBV accumulation + 1.98x volume on the breakout day is the part that matters imo, ADX 38.9 is a real trend not chop
fair, but death cross still active under all of that. mixed signals at best