Deep Dive Analysis
Figure Heloc (FIGR_HELOC)
2026-09-29 10:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.00
1.00
52W HIGH
1.06
1.06
DRAWDOWN
-5.6%
-5.6%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · MEDIUM Conviction · 2 Bull / 6 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: 50d rising, within 10% of high
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, MACD-, vol 3.77x on down day, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.55)
FIGR_HELOC Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 1.00
Low: 0.23
Now: 1.00
Low: 0.23
Now: 1.00
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 45.9 | ADX (14) | 6.2 |
| 50d MA | 1.02 | 200d MA | 1.02 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 1.00 | Resistance | 1.06 |
| ATR Volatility | 1.67%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| FIGR_HELOC | -3.2% | +0.1% | -1.7% | +0.1% |
| BTC | +7.3% | +31.7% | +8.5% | -5.9% |
| ETH | +9.5% | +41.8% | +27.7% | -8.6% |
| SOL | +15.8% | +62.3% | +37.2% | -7.6% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
8,916
RETURN
-40.6%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-41.4%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| FIGR_HELOC | -40.6% | -3.0% | -41.4% | 33 | 18% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (FIGR_HELOC)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +0.1% | 14,546 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -2.5% | 14,622 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -2.1% | 14,682 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -2.2% | 14,663 |
FIGR_HELOC Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.97 (-3.3%) |
| Target 1 | 1.00 (-0.2%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (-0.2%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-11 | BUY | 1.04 | |
| 2026-09-12 | SELL | 1.03 | -0.3% |
| 2026-09-14 | BUY | 1.02 | |
| 2026-09-15 | SELL | 1.03 | +1.3% |
| 2026-09-17 | BUY | 1.03 | |
| 2026-09-18 | SELL | 1.03 | +0.1% |
| 2026-09-19 | BUY | 1.03 | |
| 2026-09-20 | SELL | 1.00 | -3.0% |
| 2026-09-24 | BUY | 1.03 | |
| 2026-09-25 | SELL | 1.03 | -0.1% |
| 2026-09-27 | BUY | 1.06 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SELL | 1.00 | -5.8% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-29 10:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
within 10% of the high and they still call it Stage 3 topping. been burned by that exact setup twice this year, glad the system is saying avoid
2 bull vs 6 bear factors is pretty decisive. The 50d rising is doing a lot of heavy lifting for the bull case here.
^ yeah but -5.6% drawdown from 1.06 is barely anything for a topping signal. id want to see it break below the 50d before calling it dead
price is already below the 50d at 1.02 tho, so thats the first checkbox done. ADX at 6.2 means the trend has no strength but that cuts both ways
the bull case dies the moment you scroll to the backtest. strategy down 40.6% over 2 years on this thing, ill pass on the topping pattern debate
3.77x volume on a down day and OBV rolling over, thats textbook distribution around the 1.00 support. someone is handing bags out politely