Deep Dive Analysis
Figure Heloc (FIGR_HELOC)
2026-09-29 10:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.00
1.00
52W HIGH
1.06
1.06
DRAWDOWN
-5.6%
-5.6%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · MEDIUM Conviction · 2 Bull / 6 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: 50d rising, within 10% of high
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, MACD-, vol 3.77x on down day, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.55)
FIGR_HELOC Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 1.00
Low: 0.23
Now: 1.00
Low: 0.23
Now: 1.00
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 45.9 | ADX (14) | 6.2 |
| 50d MA | 1.02 | 200d MA | 1.02 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 1.00 | Resistance | 1.06 |
| ATR Volatility | 1.67%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| FIGR_HELOC | -3.2% | +0.1% | -1.7% | +0.1% |
| BTC | +7.3% | +31.7% | +8.5% | -5.9% |
| ETH | +9.5% | +41.8% | +27.7% | -8.6% |
| SOL | +15.8% | +62.3% | +37.2% | -7.6% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
8,916
RETURN
-40.6%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-41.4%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| FIGR_HELOC | -40.6% | -3.0% | -41.4% | 33 | 18% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (FIGR_HELOC)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +0.1% | 14,546 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -2.5% | 14,622 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -2.1% | 14,682 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -2.2% | 14,663 |
FIGR_HELOC Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.97 (-3.3%) |
| Target 1 | 1.00 (-0.2%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (-0.2%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-11 | BUY | 1.04 | |
| 2026-09-12 | SELL | 1.03 | -0.3% |
| 2026-09-14 | BUY | 1.02 | |
| 2026-09-15 | SELL | 1.03 | +1.3% |
| 2026-09-17 | BUY | 1.03 | |
| 2026-09-18 | SELL | 1.03 | +0.1% |
| 2026-09-19 | BUY | 1.03 | |
| 2026-09-20 | SELL | 1.00 | -3.0% |
| 2026-09-24 | BUY | 1.03 | |
| 2026-09-25 | SELL | 1.03 | -0.1% |
| 2026-09-27 | BUY | 1.06 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SELL | 1.00 | -5.8% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-29 10:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
within 10% of the high and they still call it Stage 3 topping. been burned by that exact setup twice this year, glad the system is saying avoid
2 bull vs 6 bear factors is pretty decisive. The 50d rising is doing a lot of heavy lifting for the bull case here.
^ yeah but -5.6% drawdown from 1.06 is barely anything for a topping signal. id want to see it break below the 50d before calling it dead