Deep Dive Analysis
Figure Heloc (FIGR_HELOC)
2026-09-29 10:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.00
1.00
52W HIGH
1.06
1.06
DRAWDOWN
-5.6%
-5.6%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · MEDIUM Conviction · 2 Bull / 6 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: 50d rising, within 10% of high
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, MACD-, vol 3.77x on down day, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.55)
FIGR_HELOC Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 1.00
Low: 0.23
Now: 1.00
Low: 0.23
Now: 1.00
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 45.9 | ADX (14) | 6.2 |
| 50d MA | 1.02 | 200d MA | 1.02 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 1.00 | Resistance | 1.06 |
| ATR Volatility | 1.67%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| FIGR_HELOC | -3.2% | +0.1% | -1.7% | +0.1% |
| BTC | +7.3% | +31.7% | +8.5% | -5.9% |
| ETH | +9.5% | +41.8% | +27.7% | -8.6% |
| SOL | +15.8% | +62.3% | +37.2% | -7.6% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
8,916
RETURN
-40.6%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-41.4%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| FIGR_HELOC | -40.6% | -3.0% | -41.4% | 33 | 18% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (FIGR_HELOC)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +0.1% | 14,546 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -2.5% | 14,622 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -2.1% | 14,682 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -2.2% | 14,663 |
FIGR_HELOC Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.97 (-3.3%) |
| Target 1 | 1.00 (-0.2%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (-0.2%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-11 | BUY | 1.04 | |
| 2026-09-12 | SELL | 1.03 | -0.3% |
| 2026-09-14 | BUY | 1.02 | |
| 2026-09-15 | SELL | 1.03 | +1.3% |
| 2026-09-17 | BUY | 1.03 | |
| 2026-09-18 | SELL | 1.03 | +0.1% |
| 2026-09-19 | BUY | 1.03 | |
| 2026-09-20 | SELL | 1.00 | -3.0% |
| 2026-09-24 | BUY | 1.03 | |
| 2026-09-25 | SELL | 1.03 | -0.1% |
| 2026-09-27 | BUY | 1.06 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SELL | 1.00 | -5.8% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-29 10:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
within 10% of the high and they still call it Stage 3 topping. been burned by that exact setup twice this year, glad the system is saying avoid
2 bull vs 6 bear factors is pretty decisive. The 50d rising is doing a lot of heavy lifting for the bull case here.
^ yeah but -5.6% drawdown from 1.06 is barely anything for a topping signal. id want to see it break below the 50d before calling it dead
price is already below the 50d at 1.02 tho, so thats the first checkbox done. ADX at 6.2 means the trend has no strength but that cuts both ways
ADX 6.2 on a topping call is a weird combo, no trend strength but distribution volume. id wait for the 1.00 support to actually crack first
@Sanna waiting for 1.00 to crack is the move but by then youre exiting into whoever bought the 3.77x volume. the polite handout already happened
below the 50d at 1.02 with ADX at 6.2 is still just drift tho. no trend strength means this can chop around 1.00 for weeks before the signal pays
the bull case dies the moment you scroll to the backtest. strategy down 40.6% over 2 years on this thing, ill pass on the topping pattern debate
18 percent win rate across 33 trades is the stat that ends the debate for me. system bled 40 percent while buy and hold only lost 3
the 40.6 percent backtest carnage is the whole review honestly. pattern calls mean nothing when the system bleeds like that over two years
40.6 percent over two years and the sell signal is somehow still the contested part lol. the backtest section decided this before the chart did
the system bleeding 40.6% over two years is the review tbh. whoever backtested this SELL call should publish the long side too, id love to see that damage
40.6% over two years is brutal but thats what you get running a static SELL on a mean-reverting token. the 1.00 peg is the whole thesis here, trend signals are decoration
the backtest is brutal but its a 1.00 heloc token, whats even the upside case here. SELL feels like the only honest output for this thing
exactly, a tokenized heloc book sitting at par with OBV rolling over, there is no long thesis to publish. 15k is more patience than this thing deserves
the 50d rising is borrowed momentum from the whole securitized product complex tbh. once the figure issuance tape cools it rolls over with everything else
npl_curve nails it, FIGR_HELOC does not trade in a vacuum. figure prints more issuance, this drifts to 1.03 and the drawdown thesis quietly dies
issuance prints are what matter, agreed. but at a 1.00 peg every SELL is a coin flip with carry costs attached
3.77x volume on a down day and OBV rolling over, thats textbook distribution around the 1.00 support. someone is handing bags out politely
a heloc token pinned at 1.00 with 1.67 percent daily ATR is a savings account with extra steps. the SELL is pure opportunity cost, BTC did 31.7 in a month while this did 0.1
OBV rolling over on 3.77x volume is one thing but ADX at 6.2 means this can bleed sideways for weeks before anyone calls it. topping without trend strength is the slow version of getting rekt
this. ADX at 6 means the SELL mostly collects dust while it chops sideways. id want the 15k in something with actual range before paying for this call
ADX at 6.2 means the SELL could take months to actually pay out. I would rather have the signal early than wait for trend strength on a 1.00 token.
the drawdown math is doing all the work here. -5.6% from a 1.06 high on a token that basically never moves, whoever is distributing had to be loud about it
15k deployed against a token with a 1.06 52w high. the position sizing section must be doing some heavy lifting