Deep Dive Analysis
Zcash (ZEC)
2026-09-29 16:00 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1387.64
1387.64
52W HIGH
1683.55
1683.55
DRAWDOWN
-17.6%
-17.6%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 8 Bull / 1 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, RSI healthy (53.4), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 56.3), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.18)
Bearish factors: MACD-
ZEC Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 355.10
Low: 24.51
Now: 1387.64
Low: 24.51
Now: 1387.64
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 53.4 | ADX (14) | 56.3 |
| 50d MA | 1026.13 | 200d MA | 580.58 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 789.07 | Resistance | 1683.55 |
| ATR Volatility | 8.76%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| ZEC | +17.9% | +198.1% | +109.0% | +290.8% |
| BTC | +6.7% | +31.1% | +8.0% | -6.3% |
| ETH | +9.1% | +41.2% | +27.2% | -9.0% |
| SOL | +16.3% | +63.1% | +37.9% | -7.1% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
304,006
RETURN
+1926.7%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-56.7%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| ZEC | +1926.7% | +4419.1% | -56.7% | 56 | 50% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (ZEC)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +290.8% | 279,528 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +658.0% | 113,707 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +521.9% | 93,285 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +396.5% | 74,468 |
ZEC Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 1144.51 (-17.5%) |
| Target 1 | 1692.00 (21.9%) |
| Target 2 | 1874.00 (35.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-07-15 | BUY | 570.28 | |
| 2026-07-28 | SELL | 465.44 | -18.4% |
| 2026-08-02 | BUY | 488.58 | |
| 2026-08-11 | SELL | 481.11 | -1.5% |
| 2026-08-12 | BUY | 489.77 | |
| 2026-08-15 | SELL | 487.45 | -0.5% |
| 2026-08-17 | BUY | 514.27 | |
| 2026-08-21 | SELL | 732.77 | +42.5% |
| 2026-08-25 | BUY | 767.95 | |
| 2026-09-06 | SELL | 1228.03 | +59.9% |
| 2026-09-10 | BUY | 1078.02 | |
| END | SELL | 1387.64 | +28.7% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-29 16:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
RSI 53 after a year like that is the weird part. most trends this old are screaming overbought, zec just quietly rides the 200d
zec went 355 to 1387 in a year and somehow nobody i know actually holds it. ADX 56.3 on this trend is wild
backtest says +1926% on 15k but the DCA table barely cracked 6x. tells you most of the edge is just being in during the trend
the 6x dca table being the honest number is why i ignore sims. a plain 50/200 crossover would have caught most of that 355 to 1387 run anyway
6x on DCA in a market that went 4x is basically beta with extra steps. the sim flatters the signal
same, i know exactly zero zec holders irl. ADX 56 trends dont care tho, late is still late to the party
that Sep 6 sell at 1228 then rebuy at 1078 four days later is doing a lot of heavy lifting in the simulation. real people freeze at exactly those points
8 bull factors and 1 bear and they still call it a signal and not a victory lap lol. ADX 56 on ZEC is genuinely strong tho, trend followers eat well in setups like this
RSI at 53 with price this far up the trend is the part that gets me. Usually by now its overheated. Holding my nose and adding on the dips like the plan says
OBV rising plus vol ratio 1.18 is the quiet confirmation here imo. most people will only look at the golden cross and miss the accumulation part
OBV can sit flat for weeks while price chops tho. vol ratio 1.18 is fine but with ATR at 8.76% a day im keeping each entry tranche tiny on ZEC
adding on dips when one daily candle can move you 9% is brave lol. staged entries is the right call, i bought my first slice at 1100 and still flinched
first slice at 1100 and still flinched lol. ATR near 9% a day means even a staged entry plan feels like a coin flip on timing
the 2 year backtest on 15k with the 50d/200d crossover looks clean until a death cross hands back a third of it. hard to argue with +198% in 3 months on ZEC either way, the 200d at 580 is miles below
the DCA table being the honest number is my takeaway too. anyone sizing a 15k zec position off the +1926 percent sim is gonna learn about slippage the expensive way