Deep Dive Analysis
Gram (prev. Toncoin) (GRAM)
2026-09-30 17:02 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.51
1.51
52W HIGH
1.84
1.84
DRAWDOWN
-17.7%
-17.7%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 10 Bull / 0 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, MACD+, RSI healthy (56.4), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 26.0), vol 1.36x on up day, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.78)
GRAM Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 1.51
Low: 0.00
Now: 1.51
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 56.4 | ADX (14) | 26.0 |
| 50d MA | 1.40 | 200d MA | 0.82 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 1.29 | Resistance | 1.71 |
| ATR Volatility | 5.17%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| GRAM | +10.1% | +7.6% | +81055.6% | +58266.9% |
| BTC | +7.0% | +31.0% | +10.9% | -6.4% |
| ETH | +8.6% | +40.3% | +29.7% | -9.2% |
| SOL | +16.9% | +61.4% | +40.9% | -7.4% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
4,405
RETURN
-70.6%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-76.6%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| GRAM | -70.6% | +36129.2% | -76.6% | 35 | 26% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (GRAM)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +58266.9% | 7,214,123 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +41702.1% | 6,270,311 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +50131.3% | 7,534,688 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +45714.2% | 6,872,124 |
GRAM Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 1.35 (-10.3%) |
| Target 1 | 2.00 (32.4%) |
| Target 2 | 2.00 (32.4%) |
| Entry quality | Midrange (R:R 1.5) |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-01-20 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-01-21 | SELL | 0.00 | -1.2% |
| 2026-04-16 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-04-17 | SELL | 0.00 | -18.7% |
| 2026-04-25 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-04-26 | SELL | 0.00 | -27.4% |
| 2026-04-30 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-05-01 | SELL | 0.00 | -7.1% |
| 2026-06-30 | BUY | 1.50 | |
| 2026-07-27 | SELL | 1.46 | -3.0% |
| 2026-09-21 | BUY | 1.45 | |
| END | SELL | 1.51 | +4.4% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-30 17:02 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Gram at 1.51, roughly 18 percent off the 1.84 high, and Novak still slaps a BUY with a 15k stack. Respect the conviction, not sure I share it
the rebrand from toncoin to gram still confuses everyone. half the apps i use still show the old ticker
Still shows TON on two of my exchange watchlists. The rebrand did the chart no favors either, liquidity thinned out after the switch
the staking rewards section is the only part that matters tbh, everything else is vibes
10 bull factors, 0 bear, and then the 2yr backtest shows 4405 from 15000. trend following on GRAM is a patience tax lmao
Same story on most thin alts. The signal itself is fine, the whipsaws between trends are what bleeds the account dry.
4405 out of 15000 over a two year backtest and it still gets a buy rating. the staking yield has to cover a lot of whipsaw to make that work
29 percent hit rate on the backtest and a buy rating is a coin flip with a subscription fee. the staking section carries the entire writeup again
1.84 high down to 1.51 with every moving average pointing down, and the sheet says 10 bull factors, zero bear. these deployment writeups are fan fiction with a position size
ten bull factors zero bear on a chart where every moving average points down is not analysis, its a loyalty program