Deep Dive Analysis
Gram (prev. Toncoin) (GRAM)
2026-09-30 17:02 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.51
1.51
52W HIGH
1.84
1.84
DRAWDOWN
-17.7%
-17.7%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 10 Bull / 0 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, MACD+, RSI healthy (56.4), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 26.0), vol 1.36x on up day, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.78)
GRAM Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 1.51
Low: 0.00
Now: 1.51
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 56.4 | ADX (14) | 26.0 |
| 50d MA | 1.40 | 200d MA | 0.82 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 1.29 | Resistance | 1.71 |
| ATR Volatility | 5.17%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| GRAM | +10.1% | +7.6% | +81055.6% | +58266.9% |
| BTC | +7.0% | +31.0% | +10.9% | -6.4% |
| ETH | +8.6% | +40.3% | +29.7% | -9.2% |
| SOL | +16.9% | +61.4% | +40.9% | -7.4% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
4,405
RETURN
-70.6%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-76.6%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| GRAM | -70.6% | +36129.2% | -76.6% | 35 | 26% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (GRAM)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +58266.9% | 7,214,123 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +41702.1% | 6,270,311 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +50131.3% | 7,534,688 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +45714.2% | 6,872,124 |
GRAM Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 1.35 (-10.3%) |
| Target 1 | 2.00 (32.4%) |
| Target 2 | 2.00 (32.4%) |
| Entry quality | Midrange (R:R 1.5) |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-01-20 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-01-21 | SELL | 0.00 | -1.2% |
| 2026-04-16 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-04-17 | SELL | 0.00 | -18.7% |
| 2026-04-25 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-04-26 | SELL | 0.00 | -27.4% |
| 2026-04-30 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-05-01 | SELL | 0.00 | -7.1% |
| 2026-06-30 | BUY | 1.50 | |
| 2026-07-27 | SELL | 1.46 | -3.0% |
| 2026-09-21 | BUY | 1.45 | |
| END | SELL | 1.51 | +4.4% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-30 17:02 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Gram at 1.51, roughly 18 percent off the 1.84 high, and Novak still slaps a BUY with a 15k stack. Respect the conviction, not sure I share it
the rebrand from toncoin to gram still confuses everyone. half the apps i use still show the old ticker
Still shows TON on two of my exchange watchlists. The rebrand did the chart no favors either, liquidity thinned out after the switch
my watchlists still show TON too. two years post rebrand and ticker aliases are the only thing keeping this market straight lol
coingecko still lists it as TON with a footnote. half the liquidity never followed the rename
the footnote era of crypto lmao. two tickers, one chart, zero liquidity clarity
same energy here, my tracker still labels it TON and my tax exporter splits one bag into two assets. rebrands are a compliance nightmare nobody prices in lol
the staking rewards section is the only part that matters tbh, everything else is vibes
10 bull factors, 0 bear, and then the 2yr backtest shows 4405 from 15000. trend following on GRAM is a patience tax lmao
Same story on most thin alts. The signal itself is fine, the whipsaws between trends are what bleeds the account dry.
4405 out of 15000 over a two year backtest and it still gets a buy rating. the staking yield has to cover a lot of whipsaw to make that work
29 percent hit rate on the backtest and a buy rating is a coin flip with a subscription fee. the staking section carries the entire writeup again
a 29 percent hit rate only works when winners run 4x the losers, and every trend on that chart died at the 50dma. subscription fee with extra steps is right
trend systems live on 30 percent hit rates, the kill is trends dying at the 50dma. every gram rally this year died under it
Every rally this year died at the 50dma, so why the BUY now. waiting for a reclaim first costs nothing
trend following on a 1.51 alt is a patience tax with extra steps. the 10/0 factor split is the giveaway, no honest system is that one sided
no honest system is that one sided is exactly it. 10 bull factors on a chart where every moving average points down is a rating that picked its target first
1.84 high down to 1.51 with every moving average pointing down, and the sheet says 10 bull factors, zero bear. these deployment writeups are fan fiction with a position size
ten bull factors zero bear on a chart where every moving average points down is not analysis, its a loyalty program
loyalty program lmao. backtest down 70 percent and still a BUY rating, the rating and the position size are doing different jobs
ten bull factors zero bear on a token down 18 percent this month. whoever wrote that sheet has never met a chart they didnt like
ten bull factors and the sample probably still includes TON candles. the rating sheet is layering guesses on top of a ticker mismatch
1.51 entry on GRAM while half the aggregators still list it under the old ticker. good luck to the backtest
worse, the backtest probably pulled TON candles under the GRAM name. rebrand mid-sample is a data integrity disaster and nobody flags it
BUY rating on a 15k plan while the included backtest printed 4.4k. the disclaimer paragraph is the whole article honestly
A backtest that turns 15000 into 4405 over two years is the most honest paragraph in this writeup. The staking section is doing a lot of sales work on top of that number.