Deep Dive Analysis
Sui (SUI)
2026-10-01 15:00 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.15
1.15
52W HIGH
3.63
3.63
DRAWDOWN
-68.4%
-68.4%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 8 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, 50d rising, MACD+, RSI healthy (64.9), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 29.3), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.46)
Bearish factors: death cross, far below high
SUI Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 1.52
Low: 0.65
Now: 1.15
Low: 0.65
Now: 1.15
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 64.9 | ADX (14) | 29.3 |
| 50d MA | 0.83 | 200d MA | 0.85 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.69 | Resistance | 1.26 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.03%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| SUI | +57.7% | +65.8% | +7.7% | -24.4% |
| BTC | +9.7% | +29.8% | +9.6% | -6.1% |
| ETH | +10.3% | +40.2% | +27.1% | -8.9% |
| SOL | +18.9% | +57.6% | +37.0% | -7.9% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
48,141
RETURN
+37.5%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-9.6%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| SUI | +37.5% | +24.2% | -9.6% | 21 | 57% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (SUI)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -24.4% | 43,479 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +40.5% | 49,192 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +45.1% | 50,785 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +44.7% | 50,655 |
SUI Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.93 (-18.6%) |
| Target 1 | 1.00 (-12.8%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (-12.8%) |
| Entry quality | Extended (R:R 0.65) |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-20 | BUY | 0.86 | |
| 2026-09-21 | SELL | 0.90 | +4.7% |
| 2026-09-23 | BUY | 1.02 | |
| 2026-09-24 | SELL | 0.96 | -6.1% |
| 2026-09-25 | BUY | 1.01 | |
| 2026-09-26 | SELL | 1.19 | +17.8% |
| 2026-09-27 | BUY | 1.16 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SELL | 1.26 | +8.5% |
| 2026-09-29 | BUY | 1.17 | |
| 2026-09-30 | SELL | 1.15 | -1.3% |
| 2026-10-01 | BUY | 1.16 | |
| 2026-10-01 | SELL | 1.15 | -1.3% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-01 15:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
backtest +37.5% with max dd under 10% is genuinely solid for a 2y sim. death cross flag is the only thing keeping me from aping the full 5,250
^ the death cross matters less when the 50d is already rising and price sits above both MAs. i bought the 0.86 breakout myself
same, caught the 1.16 to 1.26 leg. that 17.8% day in the trade log carried the whole backtest basically
the death cross on sui printed while price was already recovering, it lags hard on this one. the 0.65 r:r deserves the worry, not the cross
sui at 1.15 after peaking 3.63 and the BUY plan lists targets at 1.00, below entry. typo or cope?
the 1.00 target is the template defaulting when there is no real resistance level. R:R 0.65 is the actual red flag in that plan
R:R 0.65 at an extended entry means you already paid for the move. waiting for a retest of the 0.83 50d before any tranche
same plan but ill be honest, if sui keeps grinding on ADX 29 the 0.83 retest never comes and you watch from the sideline. split the difference, half tranche now
half tranche now, half at 0.83 is just DCA with extra steps. which is fine, the 45.1 vs -24.4 stat is basically begging you to do it
retest gang. though with ADX at 29.3 the trend may not give you 0.83 back, first tranche small here and add on the retest if it comes. 1.15 with RSI 64.9 isnt stretched for this move
cope. when the ATH is 3.63 and price is 1.15 the engine just defaults to 1.00 for targets. the R:R 0.65 print is the most honest part of that plan
The DCA table matters more than the signal. 6 buys returned 45.1% while lump sum lost 24.4%. Deploying all 5,250 at once is just gambling on your entry date
exactly, lump sum -24.4% vs 6 buys at +45.1% on the same signal. entry timing is doing all the work, the BUY label is almost decorative
the 45.1% on 6 buys vs -24.4% lump sum stat should be printed at the top of every one of these deploy plans tbh
R:R 0.65 with targets defaulted to 1.00 below entry is the engine waving a white flag. trim the signal all you want, the math says wait for the retest
sui at 1.15 is 68 percent under the 3.63 high and the engine still calls it stage 2. as long as the 200d holds im not touching my stack
68 percent off ath with the 200d rising is exactly when stage 2 calls print. waiting for confirmation at 1.40 means paying the confirmation premium and liking it
whole thread arguing retest vs ape while the table says 6 buys beat lump sum by almost 70 points. the engine is telling you to stop being a hero with the 5,250
the 70 point gap is the whole lesson yet half this thread still wants one heroic fill at 0.83. split it six ways like the backtest did and stop auditioning for a top tick
six fills like the backtest, and set the alerts anyway. the 45.1 percent dca number only works if you actually take all six, not the first two
the targets below entry thing happened because the engine anchored to the 3.63 peak and gave up. 0.83 retest or i pass, simple as that
the 1.00 default feels less like giving up and more like the engine admitting it has no edge when price is 68 percent off ATH. first honest number in the whole report
0.83 or nothing is how you end up chasing 1.40 three weeks later when the retest never comes. ADX 29.3 does not usually hand out second entries
a compromise exists, quarter now, quarter at 0.83, quarter on an adx 35 breakout. the 45.1% dca stat literally rewards refusing to bet on one level
quarter now quarter at 0.83 quarter on breakout is just admitting you have no edge on timing. the dca table already proved entry timing does all the work, split it six ways like the backtest did
quarter now quarter at 0.83 quarter on the adx breakout is fine, just cap it there. three quarters deployed leaves dry powder if 0.65 breaks instead