Deep Dive Analysis
Pump.fun (PUMP)
2026-10-03 16:00 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.01
0.01
52W HIGH
0.01
0.01
DRAWDOWN
-15.9%
-15.9%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 9 Bull / 0 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, MACD+, RSI healthy (64.6), rising 1m & 3m, vol 1.25x on up day, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.54)
PUMP Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.01
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.01
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 64.6 | ADX (14) | 21.4 |
| 50d MA | 0.00 | 200d MA | 0.00 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.00 | Resistance | 0.01 |
| ATR Volatility | 5.04%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| PUMP | +52.3% | +172.3% | +222.1% | +134.3% |
| BTC | +9.7% | +35.1% | +9.7% | -2.0% |
| ETH | +6.1% | +45.4% | +27.0% | -4.8% |
| SOL | +17.6% | +66.5% | +40.7% | +0.7% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
43,009
RETURN
+186.7%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-31.3%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| PUMP | +186.7% | +211.9% | -31.3% | 19 | 68% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (PUMP)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +134.3% | 46,780 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +184.0% | 42,597 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +202.6% | 45,389 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +198.5% | 44,782 |
PUMP Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.00 (-23.2%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Extended (R:R 0.65) |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-07 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-08 | SELL | 0.00 | -5.2% |
| 2026-08-09 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-10 | SELL | 0.00 | +11.1% |
| 2026-08-11 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-12 | SELL | 0.00 | -1.9% |
| 2026-08-13 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-14 | SELL | 0.00 | +5.6% |
| 2026-08-15 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-23 | SELL | 0.01 | +74.9% |
| 2026-08-26 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| END | SELL | 0.01 | +27.9% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-03 16:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
9 bull factors, 0 bear, rsi at 64.6 and a -15.9% drawdown already on the board. system says deploy, i say size it like the trend can flip tomorrow
rsi 64.6 is exactly where my last healthy entry became exit liquidity lmao. still apeing a starter position tho
rsi 64.6 with -15.9% already on the books, the starter tranche is doing a lot of therapy work here
rsi 64.6 burned you because you full sized it. a starter tranche at that rsi is fine, its the 15k all in that gets you rekt
starter tranche at rsi 64.6 is doing heavy lifting when the whole thesis needs memicoin season hot through q4. one cold week on sol and 9 bull factors age fast
64.6 is not even overheated for this one, pump spent most of september above 60 while grinding up. tranche logic still fine
the sol dependency is the real missing risk factor. nine bull factors and zero of them ask what happens when solana goes cold for a month
the sol dependency framing is right but the obv ratio is also just sol volume in a costume. pump never has its own bid when solana goes cold for a month
this. 9 bull factors dont mean much on a token whose whole thesis rides on memecoin season staying hot. starter position and dca if obv keeps climbing is the play
sizing discipline is the right read. 9 bull factors to 0 bear on something that already drew down 15.9% smells like the model only counts green candles. i’d stagger entries under that golden cross instead of trusting the ratio
sizing take is right but nobody is quoting the adx. 21.4 is technically a weak trend, below the classic 25 line. nine bull factors and the regime gate is barely open lol
adx 21.4 crossed above 20 from below which is when trends actually start, its the comeback line not the weak line. still not full sizing a 0.01 token with -15.9% already on the board
comeback line framing is generous. adx under 25 on a memecoin means the trend hasnt decided yet, starter tranche until it clears 25
adx is lagging by construction though, it crossed 20 after a chunk of the move. by the time it reads 30 you are handing someone exit liquidity
adx 21.4 barely clearing 20 on a memecoin is the regime gate creaking open, not the all clear the deploy banner implies. wait for it to hold above 25 first
the -15.9% drawdown is the tell for me. system counts 9 bull factors, i count one chart that already round tripped once. half size feels right
half size on a token that did +222% vs btc +9.7% last year feels cautious, but the round trip point stands. quarter size and add on the retest, splitting the difference
Price holding above the 50d and 200d with a fresh golden cross, I understand the buy signal. My hesitation is that OBV volume ratio of 1.54 still looks thin for a full 15k deployment.
obv climbing with 1.25x volume on an up day isnt thin, thats accumulation. its literally the 9th bull factor listed
counting the bull factors is the cope. the model surely found 9-0 on charts that went the other way too
obv ratio 1.54 on the week too, more than one up day of accumulation. but fair point on memecoin season, pump fun volumes go quiet the second sol does
Nine bull factors and the biggest one nobody prices is that PUMP is a 0.01 token whose bid evaporates with Solana volume. Quarter size at most until OBV holds on a red week.
+222% against BTC at 9.7% and the model still wants the full 15k on a 0.01 token. Quarter size until OBV proves itself on a red week, not only green ones.
9 bull factors to 0 reads like a thesis written after the chart. same models were dead silent before the +222 percent year
-15.9 percent already on the board for a 0.01 token. the golden cross buys you nothing if one red sol week shaves a decimal place off the price