Deep Dive Analysis
Spiko EU T-Bills Money Market Fund (EUTBL)
2026-10-04 10:30 UTC · Aisha Okonkwo · 10,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.19
1.19
52W HIGH
1.26
1.26
DRAWDOWN
-5.0%
-5.0%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 2 Bull / 7 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: golden cross, within 10% of high
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (19.4), falling 1m & 3m, strong bear trend (ADX 44.9)
EUTBL Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 1.23
Low: 1.19
Now: 1.19
Low: 1.19
Now: 1.19
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 19.4 | ADX (14) | 44.9 |
| 50d MA | 1.22 | 200d MA | 1.22 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 1.19 | Resistance | 1.23 |
| ATR Volatility | 0.16%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| EUTBL | -2.7% | -2.1% | -2.3% | -2.9% |
| BTC | +10.8% | +34.1% | +12.3% | -3.5% |
| ETH | +9.1% | +43.5% | +30.4% | -7.7% |
| SOL | +22.0% | +64.8% | +44.8% | -2.5% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 10,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
9,929
RETURN
-0.7%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-1.1%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| EUTBL | -0.7% | -2.9% | -1.1% | 21 | 38% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (EUTBL)
If you had deployed 10,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -2.9% | 9,709 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -2.4% | 9,762 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -2.2% | 9,781 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -2.2% | 9,784 |
EUTBL Deployment Plan — 10,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Aisha Okonkwo (Yield / Staking Focused). If you’re managing a 10,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 2,500 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 1.19 (-0.3%) |
| Target 1 | 1.00 (-16.2%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (-16.2%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Yield / Staking Focused.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-26 | BUY | 1.23 | |
| 2026-08-27 | SELL | 1.23 | -0.1% |
| 2026-08-28 | BUY | 1.23 | |
| 2026-08-29 | SELL | 1.23 | -0.6% |
| 2026-08-30 | BUY | 1.23 | |
| 2026-08-31 | SELL | 1.23 | +0.0% |
| 2026-09-01 | BUY | 1.23 | |
| 2026-09-02 | SELL | 1.23 | -0.2% |
| 2026-09-03 | BUY | 1.23 | |
| 2026-09-04 | SELL | 1.23 | +0.4% |
| 2026-09-05 | BUY | 1.23 | |
| 2026-09-15 | SELL | 1.22 | -0.5% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-04 10:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
SELL call on a money market product because it dipped slightly off peg is a weird frame. the underlying is still EU T-bills, question is whether Spiko redemptions hold up under stress
fair point on the frame, but the peg wobble IS the redemption question in real time. if redemptions were seamless the token wouldnt sit below nav at all
this. 1.19 against a 1.26 high on euro t bills is the whole story. if redemptions worked the peg would too
RSI 19.4 on a tokenized T-bill fund is wild. normally id say oversold bounce incoming but with ADX at 44.9 thats a strong trend, catching knives in a money market product makes no sense
the RSI 19.4 reading is mostly redemption flow noise tbh. a 3 month T-bill fund has near zero fundamental drift so the oscillator is just measuring people exiting, not a trend worth trading
mostly noise sure, but ADX 44.9 means the noise has been one directional for weeks. that is flow leaving, not churn
one directional for weeks and people still call it noise. when a t bill token trends harder than my alts i stop calling it noise and start asking redemption questions
same spot as you. redemptions supposedly clear t plus 2 yet the discount kept widening anyway. either the queue is longer than they admit or someone big simply stopped trying
right, ADX 44.9 on a T-bill fund is the part that gets me. strong trend signals on something built to sit still means redemption flows are lumpy, id just wait for the peg to settle
Agreed. No reason to catch it mid exit. Direct bills pay the same yield with zero peg risk, let the chart show flows settling first.
oversold readings on a money market product lol. the only signal that matters is whether redemptions clear at nav, RSI 19 is flow noise
@tbill_trecky exactly, people treating EUTBL like a dip buy. its supposed to be the boring safe part of the portfolio lol
exactly lol. people calling a 1.19 entry on t bills a dip. its not a dip if the thing was never supposed to move
1.19 against a 1.26 high and ADX 45 on t bills, the trend is people heading for the exits. direct bills until the peg behaves again
Agreed with the SELL. If I want EU T-bill exposure I can just buy the bills directly, no need to take token price risk on top of it.
except most people with a 10k portfolio cant buy short Bunds at auction directly. EUTBL at least gets you the T-bill yield without a minimum ticket. the peg wobble is its own issue tho
the direct access point is fair but spiko is not the only tokenized bill in town. plenty of alternatives redeem at nav without the 5% drawdown, that part is a spiko problem
this. competitors hold their peg while eutbl sits 5% off the high, redemption friction is a spiko problem, the tokenized bill structure itself is fine
which competitors are actually holding peg though? every tokenized bill i checked trades some discount, eutbl is just the worst of it
names would help, i checked three competitors, one held peg and two drifted a few bips. eutbl sitting 5 percent off is not the same sport
I checked a few last week, most sat within 20 to 30 bips of nav and none were 5 percent off. That gap is the market quoting redemption risk, not extra yield.
competitors within 30 bips while eutbl sits 5 percent off is the cleanest tell. the market priced redemption risk before any report did
appreciate someone actually checking the peers. 5 percent off nav while others sit 30 bips away means the market is naming which fund it trusts
RSI 19 on a 3 month bill fund should be a screenshot in every tokenization pitch deck. the wrapper is riskier than the assets, full stop
forwarding the RSI 19 chart to our allocator deck reviewer. if a screenshot of t bill momentum indicators does not kill the tokenization slide, nothing will
5 percent off nav on 3 month bills is a gap you cannot earn back from a full year of bill yield at current rates. fund can be perfectly solvent and the sell still makes sense, the discount is the compensation