Deep Dive Analysis
Quant (QNT)
2026-10-04 15:00 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
260.05
260.05
52W HIGH
357.00
357.00
DRAWDOWN
-27.2%
-27.2%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 9 Bull / 0 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, MACD+, RSI healthy (71.6), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 58.6), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 2.44)
QNT Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 74.57
Low: 54.01
Now: 260.05
Low: 54.01
Now: 260.05
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 71.6 | ADX (14) | 58.6 |
| 50d MA | 97.97 | 200d MA | 76.47 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 58.89 | Resistance | 357.00 |
| ATR Volatility | 13.27%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| QNT | +312.6% | +330.4% | +245.1% | +248.8% |
| BTC | +11.0% | +34.3% | +12.5% | -3.4% |
| ETH | +8.9% | +43.3% | +30.3% | -7.8% |
| SOL | +22.8% | +65.9% | +45.8% | -1.8% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
31,744
RETURN
-9.3%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-48.8%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| QNT | -9.3% | +276.1% | -48.8% | 69 | 46% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (QNT)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +248.8% | 89,101 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +229.6% | 115,351 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +238.4% | 118,454 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +258.8% | 125,584 |
QNT Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 133.05 (-48.8%) |
| Target 1 | 364.00 (40.0%) |
| Target 2 | 433.00 (66.5%) |
| Entry quality | Extended (R:R 0.82) |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-12 | BUY | 63.88 | |
| 2026-09-13 | SELL | 63.02 | -1.3% |
| 2026-09-14 | BUY | 64.52 | |
| 2026-09-15 | SELL | 61.17 | -5.2% |
| 2026-09-18 | BUY | 63.26 | |
| 2026-09-19 | SELL | 65.64 | +3.8% |
| 2026-09-20 | BUY | 64.18 | |
| 2026-09-21 | SELL | 66.97 | +4.4% |
| 2026-09-22 | BUY | 73.74 | |
| 2026-09-23 | SELL | 70.63 | -4.2% |
| 2026-10-01 | BUY | 244.53 | |
| END | SELL | 260.05 | +6.3% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-04 15:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
the 2yr backtest on QNT did -9.3% while buy and hold did +276% and the verdict is still BUY at high conviction. trend following is a rough religion
thats kinda the point tho, the system sells every death cross so it eats whipsaw in chop and only wins big when trends run. ADX 58.6 says this one is running
meanwhile the DCA table quietly shows 12 buys turned 35k into 125k. nobody debates entries when the 1y chart looks like that
the backtest reality check nobody wants to hear. the system needs trends to run or it bleeds, and QNT spent half the year chopping sideways
the system eating -9.3 percent over 2 years while buy and hold did +276 is the honest ad for trend following. you pay for drawdown insurance in bull years
thats the deal with trend systems, you rent drawdown insurance and it looks dumb in bull years. problem is most people reading BUY at RSI 71.6 wont sit through the next -9 percent quarter
exactly, -9.3 percent over 2 years is the tuition for drawdown insurance. question is whether ADX 58 is the trend that pays for the last four chop quarters
^ this. and their own DCA table shows the boring 12 buys did the heavy lifting anyway. id skip the signal and just average in
backtest_ghost the system also sidestepped the drawdowns that buy and hold ate along the way. a 2yr window that ends in a bull quarter flatters holding, both things can be true
fair, but a 2yr window with basically one bull quarter in it is thin evidence either way. the DCA table quietly turning 35k into 125k tells its own story
RSI at 71.6 and it still says DEPLOY with high conviction. trend following i guess, but that zone is exactly where my last three entries chilled for weeks before anything happened
the OBV accumulation plus 2.44 volume ratio is the part that matters imo. momentum entries at high RSI keep working until the tape thins out, then they get ugly fast
the entry table flags Extended with R:R 0.82 so the model knows its late. its a bet that momentum pays for the bad ratio, sometimes it does
RSI 71.6, entry flagged Extended with R:R 0.82 and a stop at -48.8%? the signal might be right but the entry here is rough, id wait for a pullback toward the 50d
a stop that wide on a 35k deploy is basically no stop. one gap down and youre eating half the drawdown before the exit even triggers
R:R of 0.82 at RSI 71.6 is the system demanding you chase. waiting for the 50d tag costs some upside but keeps the stop sane
kvasir_qnt waiting for a 50d tag on qnt with ADX at 58.6 is how you end up buying 310 instead of 260. staged entries beat the perfect entry in a trend this strong
staged entries into ADX 58 makes sense. chasing 260 with a stop at -48.8 percent is just an unhedged lottery ticket with extra steps
9 bull factors, 0 bear. when a scorecard reads that clean i start wondering what the model is not allowed to say. ADX 58.6 is genuinely strong though
Been holding QNT since the Overledger days of 2021 so no change for me. Dropping 35k on one signal feels bold but the golden cross and rising 50d do line up
overledger keeps quietly stacking CBDC pilot work, more than most 2017 tokens can claim. still would not chase an entry flagged extended at RSI 71
Sigrid Holm the CBDC pilot pipeline is the reason QNT even survives trendless years. would still rather buy the 50d tag than an RSI 71 entry, extended is extended
a -48.8% stop on a 35k deployment is wild. youre risking like 17k just to find out if the ADX 58 trend is real lol
staged entries plus the DCA table quietly turning 35k into 125k is the honest read. buy and hold did the work, the signal side is entertainment
drawdown_dima the DCA table turning 35k into 125k is doing the quiet work the signal column cannot. honest trend Following analysis admits the base case is just holding
a 48.8 percent max drawdown next to a 0.82 risk reward means the system itself is telling you the stop is decorative. staged thirds or nothing on this one