The Bitcoin Standard Author Saifedean Ammous Says Most Bitcoin Treasury Copycats Cannot Beat Saylor Strategy

The economist who wrote “The Bitcoin Standard” just delivered an uncomfortable message to the wave of companies copying Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin playbook: most of them probably can’t compete, and if you want Bitcoin exposure, holding the coin directly is still the cleaner bet.

By Marcus Johnson | October 5, 2026

The Hook: Saifedean Ammous Doubts the Copycats

Bitcoin treasury companies — businesses built primarily around buying and holding Bitcoin — have multiplied over the past two years. But Saifedean Ammous, the economist whose book “The Bitcoin Standard” became required reading for Bitcoiners, says he is not buying what most of them are selling.

“I don’t see a compelling case for going to another Bitcoin treasury company other than Michael Saylor’s Strategy,” Ammous said on the latest episode of Cointelegraph’s Proof of Thesis, published October 2, 2026.

For regular investors, this matters because these treasury stocks are often marketed as a convenient way to get Bitcoin exposure through a regular brokerage account. If the economist most associated with Bitcoin scholarship is skeptical, it is worth understanding why — especially with Bitcoin trading around 85,412 USD at the time of writing, according to the batch-wide CoinGecko snapshot from October 4.

The Numbers: Why Strategy Is in a League of Its Own

Strategy, the company formerly known as MicroStrategy, holds the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin treasury. According to its Monday 8-K filing cited by Cointelegraph, the company holds 847,666 BTC acquired for 63.95 billion USD. On top of that, it reported a 5.02 billion USD cash reserve earmarked for preferred stock dividends and debt interest payments.

• 847,666 BTC — Strategy’s total holdings, per its 8-K filing
• 63.95 billion USD — the total cost of acquiring that Bitcoin
• 5.02 billion USD — cash reserve covering preferred dividends and interest
• 12 percent — the annual dividend rate on Strategy’s STRC preferred stock after a summer raise

Ammous’s core argument is about scale creating a virtuous cycle. Strategy’s larger Bitcoin holdings let it borrow at lower rates than smaller treasury rivals can. Cheaper financing means the company can survive downturns that would crush a smaller player carrying similar leverage. Think of it like a big-box retailer that buys inventory in bulk — the bigger buyer simply gets better terms, and the little guys pay full price.

The Core Conflict: Summer Stress Tested the Model

It is easy to forget how much pressure Strategy was under just a few months ago. Over the summer, Bitcoin fell below 60,000 USD, and the company’s STRC preferred stock traded far below its 100 USD target price, as Cointelegraph reported.

Management responded aggressively. Strategy raised STRC’s annual dividend rate to 12 percent, repurchased shares, built up its cash reserve, and even sold some Bitcoin to help fund dividends and buybacks — before resuming its accumulation streak.

Ammous said those earlier drawdowns never brought the company close to liquidation. “Even a much bigger Bitcoin drawdown is going to leave them in a decent situation because they have enough cash on hand to make their payments,” he explained.

That cash buffer is exactly what he doubts the copycats possess. A smaller treasury company with weaker financing and a thinner cash cushion faces the same Bitcoin volatility with fewer tools to absorb it.

What This Means for Your Portfolio

Ammous’s advice splits into two very different groups. For operating businesses with positive cash flow, he thinks parking surplus cash — money not needed for daily, weekly or monthly operations — in Bitcoin as a long-term reserve is sensible. “I think pretty much every business should be doing this,” he said.

But for individual investors, he drew a sharp line. He cautioned that investing in Strategy carries real risks, and said he personally favors holding Bitcoin directly over owning any treasury company’s stock.

The practical takeaway for a regular investor: a treasury stock is not a Bitcoin substitute. It adds company-specific risks — leverage, dividend obligations, management decisions — on top of Bitcoin’s own volatility. When you buy the coin itself, the only thing that can hurt you is the price. When you buy a leveraged treasury vehicle, the price can stay flat and the company can still get into trouble.

The Verdict: Bottom In, and a 2030 Guess He Won’t Bet On

Ammous also shared a market outlook. He believes Bitcoin has probably already bottomed, though he is not dogmatic about it. “We may bottom again, we may witness another crash that takes us down,” he warned.

Looking further out, he expects Bitcoin’s current cycle to peak around 2029, with prices predominantly rising until then. Asked for a 2030 price estimate, he offered roughly 200,000 USD — a figure based on the Bitcoin power-law model, chosen near the lower end of the range he cited — before immediately adding, “I wouldn’t bet on it.”

He also noted that smaller drawdowns over time could make Bitcoin more attractive to large asset managers, as memories of past brutal bear markets fade.

The bottom line: the man who wrote the book on Bitcoin’s monetary thesis thinks the treasury trend is real for businesses with spare cash, but for everyday investors, the simplest route — owning Bitcoin directly — remains the one he trusts most.

The cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.