Deep Dive Analysis
Algorand (ALGO)
2026-10-05 15:00 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.13
0.13
52W HIGH
0.60
0.60
DRAWDOWN
-78.7%
-78.7%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 9 Bull / 1 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, MACD+, RSI healthy (63.7), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 43.4), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.51)
Bearish factors: far below high
ALGO Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.12
Low: 0.08
Now: 0.13
Low: 0.08
Now: 0.13
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 63.7 | ADX (14) | 43.4 |
| 50d MA | 0.10 | 200d MA | 0.10 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.09 | Resistance | 0.14 |
| ATR Volatility | 6.39%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| ALGO | +34.0% | +42.6% | +20.9% | +5.5% |
| BTC | +9.6% | +35.0% | +15.2% | -3.9% |
| ETH | +7.5% | +45.5% | +33.7% | -10.5% |
| SOL | +16.6% | +62.6% | +45.1% | -6.0% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
43,750
RETURN
+25.0%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-36.5%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| ALGO | +25.0% | -39.9% | -36.5% | 75 | 47% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (ALGO)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +5.5% | 19,630 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +0.4% | 35,157 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +8.6% | 38,018 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +14.9% | 40,198 |
ALGO Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.11 (-13.2%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Midrange (R:R 1.45) |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-23 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-09-24 | SELL | 0.11 | +8.6% |
| 2026-09-25 | BUY | 0.12 | |
| 2026-09-26 | SELL | 0.12 | +1.7% |
| 2026-09-27 | BUY | 0.12 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SELL | 0.14 | +13.8% |
| 2026-09-29 | BUY | 0.13 | |
| 2026-09-30 | SELL | 0.12 | -1.1% |
| 2026-10-01 | BUY | 0.12 | |
| 2026-10-02 | SELL | 0.13 | +4.1% |
| 2026-10-03 | BUY | 0.13 | |
| END | SELL | 0.13 | -2.2% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-05 15:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
0.13 with a 0.60 high behind it and they stamp HIGH conviction. algorand bagholders stay winning, at losing
to be fair ADX 43 on a fresh golden cross is a real signal, i caught the last stage 2 flip and it doubled. still, the one bear factor is sitting 78% underwater and it never says which side wins
the engine never shows how it weights the bear factors, thats my gripe. ADX 43 golden cross carried the last leg tho, 0.13 is a different risk profile than 0.60
conviction score tracks the trend setup, not your entry price. ADX 43 on a fresh golden cross, the engine likes the chart not your bags
conviction is the ADX 43 talking, not the drawdown. still, 0.13 with OBV rising is a different trade than the 0.60 crowd got
deploying 35k into something down 78.7% from the high takes a special kind of conviction lol. ADX 43 tho, the trend is real
That is exactly when the signal fires. You want the entry before the crowd remembers the ticker exists.
78% underwater and HIGH conviction is exactly how trend systems work. you are buying the turn, not the bagholders entry
algo at 0.13 again. bought the 0.60 top in a previous life. system says deploy, the scar tissue says paper trade it first
algo at 0.13, my 2021 bag weeps somewhere. adding anyway, golden cross dont lie
same bag, added at 0.14 last cycle and still underwater. OBV rising is the first thing that has looked alive on algo in a year tho
RSI 63 with a volume ratio of 1.51 says the first leg already ran. Staged entries like the plan lays out or you are just buying somebody’s exit at 0.13.
vol ratio 1.51 and RSI 63 means the move is already warm. staged entries or you are just chasing the golden cross story
staged entries is the whole point of the tranche table. the RSI 63 crowd that lumps in at 0.13 becomes the exit liquidity for tranche one
78.7% off the high with OBV rising is the actual setup. everyone mocking the bagholders is usually when these things flip