Deep Dive Analysis
Hedera (HBAR)
2026-10-08 16:00 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.09
0.09
52W HIGH
0.40
0.40
DRAWDOWN
-77.7%
-77.7%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 7 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 52.4), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.66)
Bearish factors: MACD-, far below high
HBAR Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.10
Low: 0.04
Now: 0.09
Low: 0.04
Now: 0.09
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 46.2 | ADX (14) | 52.4 |
| 50d MA | 0.09 | 200d MA | 0.08 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.07 | Resistance | 0.13 |
| ATR Volatility | 7.71%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| HBAR | +19.6% | +30.9% | -6.0% | -9.4% |
| BTC | +8.2% | +28.6% | +12.0% | -1.8% |
| ETH | +3.4% | +33.0% | +25.3% | -6.4% |
| SOL | +10.7% | +54.9% | +36.2% | -4.2% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
21,113
RETURN
+40.8%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-31.5%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| HBAR | +40.8% | -53.4% | -31.5% | 53 | 45% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (HBAR)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -9.4% | 6,278 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -14.1% | 12,878 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -9.3% | 13,603 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -8.6% | 13,715 |
HBAR Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.08 (-15.4%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-23 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-09-24 | SELL | 0.09 | +2.9% |
| 2026-09-25 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-09-26 | SELL | 0.09 | -2.0% |
| 2026-09-27 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SELL | 0.12 | +27.1% |
| 2026-09-29 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-09-30 | SELL | 0.10 | +2.3% |
| 2026-10-01 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-10-02 | SELL | 0.10 | -0.2% |
| 2026-10-03 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| END | SELL | 0.09 | -12.5% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-08 16:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
ADX 52.4 with price still 77% off the high, thats the only stat here that matters imo. trend signal on HBAR finally worth a look
A 40.8% backtest return sounds nice until you see the -31.5% max drawdown. Most people would have tapped out long before the strategy recovered.
^ this. ran similar MA crossover stuff on alts in 2024, the drawdowns on the death cross exits brutalize you. RSI filter helps tho
resistance at 0.13 basically 40% upside from 0.09, vs support only 0.07. risk reward not bad if the uptrend holds tbh
77% down from the 0.40 high and this prints a HIGH conviction buy? the ADX 52 trend is real, i give you that, but 0.13 resistance has been a wall before
stop at 0.08 is -15.4% on a coin with 7.7% daily ATR. two bad candles and you’re out lol. tight risk for a ‘strong bull trend’
tight stop with that ATR worries me too. id widen to under 0.078 and size down, getting chopped out at 0.08 on noise is the usual outcome here
^ 0.13 was the wall in the spring bounce too. needs a volume push or its another rejection, but adx 52 at least says the trend can try
the backtest table is the honest part here. lump sum got destroyed while DCA with 12 buys is only down 8.6%. that tells you everything about buying a downtrend bounce
An 8.6% loss on DCA versus a backtest that got cut in half tells me the signal is a timing tool, not a hold tool. Scaling in under 0.10 with a 0.13 target still works.