TL;DR
- $9.26 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expired on April 26, 2024 — 96,172 BTC contracts and 987,000 ETH contracts
- Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows accelerated through late April, denting institutional sentiment
- Bitcoin closed April down approximately 10% after seven consecutive months of gains
- Glassnode data reveals 7% of Bitcoin supply locked in the $60,000–$65,000 range
- US tax season, government BTC sales, and geopolitical tensions compounded selling pressure
The cryptocurrency market navigated one of its most eventful weeks of 2024 on April 26, as a staggering $9.26 billion in notional value across Bitcoin and Ethereum options expired. The expiry event — encompassing 96,172 BTC contracts and 987,000 ETH contracts — arrived at a precarious moment for the broader digital asset ecosystem, with spot Bitcoin ETF outflows accelerating and macroeconomic headwinds intensifying.
Massive Options Expiry Tests Market Resilience
The April 26 options expiry represented one of the largest Deribit settlement events of the year. With Bitcoin hovering around $63,755 and Ethereum trading near $3,130, the expiry placed immense pressure on derivatives markets already grappling with elevated volatility in the weeks following the halving. Analysts noted that the so-called “max pain” price for Bitcoin options sat below the spot price, creating a gravitational pull that contributed to downward pressure throughout the final week of April.
The timing proved particularly challenging. Only days after the fourth Bitcoin halving reduced block rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC, miners faced compressed margins while options market makers adjusted their hedge books. The convergence of these two events — the post-halving adjustment period and the massive quarterly options expiry — created a unique stress test for Bitcoin’s market structure.
ETF Outflows Signal Institutional Caution
Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which had been the dominant narrative throughout the first quarter of 2024, experienced a noticeable shift in momentum during the second half of April. After drawing nearly $2 billion in cumulative inflows during the month’s early weeks, the trend reversed sharply. Multiple consecutive days of net outflows from major ETF products — including those from BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale — raised questions about whether institutional appetite was temporarily saturated.
The outflows coincided with broader risk-off sentiment across traditional markets. Rising US consumer price index readings reinforced fears that the Federal Reserve would maintain higher interest rates for longer, reducing the appeal of risk assets including Bitcoin. The persistent inflation narrative weighed heavily on crypto markets throughout April, contributing to negative funding rates in perpetual futures markets.
Supply Distribution Reveals Critical Support Zone
On-chain data from Glassnode’s URPD (Unrealized Realized Price Distribution) metric offered a revealing picture of Bitcoin’s supply dynamics heading into late April. Approximately 7% of the total Bitcoin supply — roughly 1.37 million BTC — was concentrated in the $60,000 to $65,000 price range as of April 26. This accumulation zone, built over weeks of sideways price action, represents a significant chunk of Bitcoin’s 19.69 million circulating supply.
Bitcoin had maintained a price above $60,000 since February 28, briefly dipping below the level only twice — on March 5 and during a short window between April 17 and April 19. The concentration of supply in this range suggests that a decisive break below $60,000 could trigger significant unrealized losses and cascading selling pressure. Conversely, the lack of substantial supply below $60,000, as identified by CryptoSlate’s analysis, means the market has thin liquidity cushions in the event of a sharper correction.
Macro Pressures Mount on Multiple Fronts
Bitcoin’s 10% decline in April — its first monthly loss after seven consecutive months of gains — stemmed from a confluence of factors. The US tax season forced many American investors to liquidate long positions to meet annual tax obligations, creating sustained selling pressure throughout the month. The US government compounded this by selling 1,999 BTC in early April, adding to the available supply.
Gold’s remarkable rally posed an additional challenge. The precious metal surged 15% over three months, reaching levels not seen since the onset of the coronavirus crisis. Some capital appeared to rotate from Bitcoin into gold as traditional safe-haven demand intensified amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The combination of inflation fears, geopolitical uncertainty, and regulatory ambiguity created a perfect storm that tested Bitcoin’s reputation as digital gold.
Why This Matters
The convergence of the $9.26 billion options expiry, accelerating ETF outflows, and mounting macroeconomic pressures marks a critical juncture for Bitcoin and the broader DeFi ecosystem. The post-halving period traditionally brings increased volatility, and the supply distribution data suggests the $60,000 level serves as a linchpin for market structure. For DeFi protocols built on Ethereum and other smart contract platforms, the options expiry and associated price movements directly impact collateral ratios, liquidation cascades, and lending market dynamics. How Bitcoin navigates this support zone will likely set the tone for crypto markets heading into the summer months, with implications reaching far beyond spot trading into the interconnected world of decentralized finance.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
9.26 billion in options expiring while etfs are bleeding out, recipe for some serious volatility. glad i went mostly cash last week
going to cash was smart. tax season selling plus govt btc dumps, timing could not have been worse
going to cash was the move. 9.26B options expiry plus ETF outflows plus tax season selling. three bearish signals at once
glassnode data showed 7% of supply at 60-65K and people still bought the bounce. that wall was visible for weeks on the cost basis chart
7% of btc supply locked between 60-65k means that zone is a war zone. anyone trading there is playing with fire
7% of supply between 60-65K is a massive resistance zone. anyone buying there needs to understand they are fighting against a wall of bag holders
glassnode kept showing that 60-65k zone as dense supply. took until august to clear it. anyone calling a top there got humbled fast
7% of supply between 60-65k and people bought the dip there anyway. glassnode literally published the cost basis chart showing that wall and ct ignored it
max pain for BTC was below spot the entire week before expiry. dealers were delta hedging short into the settlement. the dump was basically pre-programmed
^ delta hedging short into settlement, exactly. Also April 26 was two days after the US tax deadline, so the coins that were going to move were already moving. Perfect storm nobody priced
96,172 BTC contracts expiring at max pain 63K while spot was bleeding from ETF outflows. dealers were delta hedging into the expiry all week, basically guaranteed the dump
strikes_kep_ the 7% of supply between 60-65K was the real anchor. options expiry just accelerated the test of that zone. anyone who bought the dip there was fighting millions of underwater bagholders
10% down in april after 7 green months, that is just a normal pullback. etf outflows are temporary
BTC down 10% in april after 7 green months and people acted surprised. largest options expiry of the year plus tax deadline plus ETF bleeding. pick your poison
7 green months then a 10% pullback during options expiry and tax season. literally the most predictable correction possible yet ct called for sub 50k
Dele A. 7 green months into a 10 percent pullback during the largest options expiry of the year plus tax deadline. textbook mean reversion setup
7% of BTC supply locked between 60-65k per glassnode. took months to clear that bagholder zone. anyone calling a top there got humbled when it eventually broke
96K BTC contracts expiring while ETFs were bleeding. market makers were hedging with spot sells the whole week before expiry. coordinated downside pressure
Rhea is right about the coordinated pressure. 9.26B notional expiring while ETFs bled out the same week, market makers were basically handed a free put
Rhea S. 96K BTC contracts expiring while market makers were shorting spot to hedge. the entire week was basically a free put for anyone with size
expiry_watch_ market makers shorting spot to hedge 96K BTC in expiry contracts. the options dealer flow alone explained most of the april dump, not just ETF outflows
deribit_vet_ dealer hedging on 96K BTC contracts basically guaranteed the dump. the options market was doing the fed’s job that week
7 green months into the largest options expiry of the year plus IRS deadline. the april correction was the most telegraphed trade of 2024 and ct still panicked
9.26B options expiry and BTC only closed down 10pct for april. seven green monthly candles before that. the market absorbed the largest deribit settlement of the year without a structural break. that is institutional grade resilience
96,172 btc contracts settling on the same day as 987k eth and somehow the story became etf outflows and not the dealers flattening gamma into it. the tail wagged the dog