Bitcoin is holding firm near the $69,000 mark on November 4, 2024, as the cryptocurrency world holds its collective breath ahead of one of the most consequential U.S. presidential elections in modern memory. With voters heading to the polls in less than 24 hours, the leading digital asset is trading in a tight range, reflecting both the uncertainty and the anticipation gripping global markets.
TL;DR
- Bitcoin trades near $69,000 on November 4, with analysts predicting a high around $71,500 and support near $69,000
- The U.S. presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is the dominant narrative driving crypto markets
- Historical data suggests Bitcoin rallies after elections regardless of the winner, according to CoinDesk analysis
- Forbes analysts predict Bitcoin could reach $80,000–$90,000 within two months if Trump wins
- The Federal Reserve’s upcoming FOMC meeting adds another layer of potential volatility this week
Election Eve Tension Defines the Session
The atmosphere across cryptocurrency markets on this Monday morning is electric. Bitcoin has spent the past 24 hours consolidating just below the critical $70,000 resistance level, with trading volume picking up as both retail and institutional players position themselves for what could be a defining week. The coin touched an intraday high near $71,000 before settling back into the $68,500–$69,500 range, a pattern that reflects the cautious optimism permeating the space.
What makes this election cycle uniquely significant for Bitcoin is the stark contrast between the two candidates’ positions on cryptocurrency. Donald Trump has actively courted the crypto vote, pledging to make America the crypto capital of the planet and promising lighter regulation. Kamala Harris, while not overtly hostile, represents an administration that has taken a more cautious regulatory approach through the SEC and other agencies.
Historical Patterns Favor Post-Election Rallies
CoinDesk analyst James Van Straten published analysis on November 4 showing that Bitcoin is likely to rally after the election irrespective of who wins. Historical data from previous election cycles supports this thesis. After the 2020 election, Bitcoin rallied an extraordinary 478% over the following twelve months, climbing from roughly $13,500 to its then-all-time high above $69,000 in November 2021. After the 2016 election, BTC surged from around $700 to nearly $20,000 within a year.
The key insight from Van Straten’s analysis is that Bitcoin appears undervalued compared to previous cycles when measured from either the cycle low or the most recent halving event in April 2024. This suggests that the current consolidation around $69,000 may represent a coiling spring rather than a ceiling.
Analysts See Clear Path to Six Figures
Forbes reported on November 4 that analysts at major financial institutions are mapping out aggressive price targets for Bitcoin. Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani predicted that Bitcoin could reach $80,000 to $90,000 within two months if Trump wins, citing the pro-crypto regulatory environment that would likely follow. Even under a Harris presidency, Chhugani and others see a path to new all-time highs, driven primarily by the structural tailwinds of spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and the post-halving supply squeeze.
The Blockworks Election Eve analysis highlighted that Swan Bitcoin managing director John Haar expects the election’s impact may be short-lived, with broader macroeconomic factors like Federal Reserve monetary policy ultimately determining Bitcoin’s trajectory. The FOMC meeting scheduled for later this week is expected to deliver another 25 basis point rate cut, which would further support risk assets like Bitcoin.
Market Structure Shows Institutional Conviction
Beneath the headline price action, on-chain metrics paint a picture of growing institutional conviction. Bitcoin ETF inflows have remained consistently positive throughout October and into November, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) continuing to absorb the lion’s share of new capital. The steady accumulation pattern suggests that large players are building positions ahead of what they expect to be a sustained move higher.
The options market is also flashing bullish signals. Open interest in Bitcoin call options with strike prices above $80,000 and $100,000 has surged in recent weeks, indicating that sophisticated traders are positioning for significant upside. The put-call skew has shifted firmly in favor of calls, a reflection of the market’s directional bias heading into election week.
Why This Matters
November 4, 2024, stands as a pivotal moment in Bitcoin’s history. The convergence of the U.S. presidential election, a Federal Reserve rate decision, and the post-halving supply dynamics create a unique catalyst-rich environment. Whether the next 48 hours bring a Trump victory and an immediate surge past all-time highs, or a Harris win with a more measured market response, the structural case for Bitcoin’s continued appreciation remains compelling. The $69,000 level may soon be remembered as a launching pad rather than a ceiling.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
holding at 69k on election eve is more bullish than people think. market is calm before the storm
holding at 69k on election eve is the calm before a 20% move in either direction. whichever way it breaks
vol_buyer_ 20% move ended up being up not down. the IV crush after election night punished put buyers hard
holding at 69K on election eve with IV crushed. the calm before a 20% move. vol sellers got destroyed that week
election_night_ IV was crushed because nobody wanted to hold options through the election. premium was basically free. if you bought straddles on Nov 4 you printed when BTC moved 10% in 3 days after Trump won
election_night_ the IV crush was brutal. puts were basically free and anyone who bought them on election morning made 40x. the vol compression was the tell
iv_crushed_ the put buyers who got 40x were the real winners that week. nobody talks about how cheap downside protection was right before the move
two binary events in one week and vol sellers still got caught offsides. the IV crush thesis only works if you correctly predict the direction
turned out to be a 15% move up in a week. the compression at 69K was accumulation not distribution
69k on election eve with forbes calling 80-90k on a trump win. turned out they were right but nobody believed it at the time
forbes calling 80-90k if trump wins. considering btc was at 69k that would be a 15-30% move in two months
Chen Yu forbes 80-90K call was conservative. BTC went from 69K to 100K in like 5 weeks after election night
poll_position forbes 80-90K call was conservative in hindsight. BTC went from 69K to 75K in like 8 hours after trump won. options market was completely wrong about direction
Chen Yu Forbes calling 80-90K if trump wins was conservative. BTC was at 69K and moved 15% in the first week after election night
tight range between 69k support and 71.5k resistance while the entire country was voting. btc waiting for the result like everyone else
looking back the 69K consolidation was the most obvious accumulation pattern. BTC barely flinched with two binary events in the same week
Kenji O. easy to say in hindsight. at the time half of CT was calling for a dump to 60K if Harris won. the compression could have broken either way
FOMC plus election in the same week and BTC compressed at 69K. anyone who has seen IV crush before knew a massive move was coming. turned out to be straight up
article mentions Forbes prediction of $80K-90K if Trump won. BTC hit $76K within a week and $93K by December. that call aged incredibly well
Forbes_target_ 76K in a week was just the start. hit 93K by december and 109K by inauguration. anyone who sold the 69K compression got rekt
delta_hedge_rat 69K compression to 109K by inauguration. anyone who sold vol that week got absolutely destroyed on both delta and vega
wan_chrome_ the gamma squeeze from dealers hedging short vol positions added fuel. wasnt just delta, the options market amplified the breakout
FOMC meeting the same week as the election and BTC barely moved. that kind of low vol compression usually precedes a violent breakout in one direction
Mira P. two binary events in the same week and BTC chose to compress. thats accumulation behavior. smart money was loading while retail was buying options
the FOMC being the same week as the election and BTC only compressing tighter was the strongest accumulation signal ive ever seen on the daily chart
Tomislav K. IV was crushed to single digits on election eve and nobody thought a 15% move was coming. vol sellers got carried out