Bitcoin is holding firm near the $69,000 mark on November 4, 2024, as the cryptocurrency world holds its collective breath ahead of one of the most consequential U.S. presidential elections in modern memory. With voters heading to the polls in less than 24 hours, the leading digital asset is trading in a tight range, reflecting both the uncertainty and the anticipation gripping global markets.
TL;DR
- Bitcoin trades near $69,000 on November 4, with analysts predicting a high around $71,500 and support near $69,000
- The U.S. presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is the dominant narrative driving crypto markets
- Historical data suggests Bitcoin rallies after elections regardless of the winner, according to CoinDesk analysis
- Forbes analysts predict Bitcoin could reach $80,000–$90,000 within two months if Trump wins
- The Federal Reserve’s upcoming FOMC meeting adds another layer of potential volatility this week
Election Eve Tension Defines the Session
The atmosphere across cryptocurrency markets on this Monday morning is electric. Bitcoin has spent the past 24 hours consolidating just below the critical $70,000 resistance level, with trading volume picking up as both retail and institutional players position themselves for what could be a defining week. The coin touched an intraday high near $71,000 before settling back into the $68,500–$69,500 range, a pattern that reflects the cautious optimism permeating the space.
What makes this election cycle uniquely significant for Bitcoin is the stark contrast between the two candidates’ positions on cryptocurrency. Donald Trump has actively courted the crypto vote, pledging to make America the crypto capital of the planet and promising lighter regulation. Kamala Harris, while not overtly hostile, represents an administration that has taken a more cautious regulatory approach through the SEC and other agencies.
Historical Patterns Favor Post-Election Rallies
CoinDesk analyst James Van Straten published analysis on November 4 showing that Bitcoin is likely to rally after the election irrespective of who wins. Historical data from previous election cycles supports this thesis. After the 2020 election, Bitcoin rallied an extraordinary 478% over the following twelve months, climbing from roughly $13,500 to its then-all-time high above $69,000 in November 2021. After the 2016 election, BTC surged from around $700 to nearly $20,000 within a year.
The key insight from Van Straten’s analysis is that Bitcoin appears undervalued compared to previous cycles when measured from either the cycle low or the most recent halving event in April 2024. This suggests that the current consolidation around $69,000 may represent a coiling spring rather than a ceiling.
Analysts See Clear Path to Six Figures
Forbes reported on November 4 that analysts at major financial institutions are mapping out aggressive price targets for Bitcoin. Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani predicted that Bitcoin could reach $80,000 to $90,000 within two months if Trump wins, citing the pro-crypto regulatory environment that would likely follow. Even under a Harris presidency, Chhugani and others see a path to new all-time highs, driven primarily by the structural tailwinds of spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and the post-halving supply squeeze.
The Blockworks Election Eve analysis highlighted that Swan Bitcoin managing director John Haar expects the election’s impact may be short-lived, with broader macroeconomic factors like Federal Reserve monetary policy ultimately determining Bitcoin’s trajectory. The FOMC meeting scheduled for later this week is expected to deliver another 25 basis point rate cut, which would further support risk assets like Bitcoin.
Market Structure Shows Institutional Conviction
Beneath the headline price action, on-chain metrics paint a picture of growing institutional conviction. Bitcoin ETF inflows have remained consistently positive throughout October and into November, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) continuing to absorb the lion’s share of new capital. The steady accumulation pattern suggests that large players are building positions ahead of what they expect to be a sustained move higher.
The options market is also flashing bullish signals. Open interest in Bitcoin call options with strike prices above $80,000 and $100,000 has surged in recent weeks, indicating that sophisticated traders are positioning for significant upside. The put-call skew has shifted firmly in favor of calls, a reflection of the market’s directional bias heading into election week.
Why This Matters
November 4, 2024, stands as a pivotal moment in Bitcoin’s history. The convergence of the U.S. presidential election, a Federal Reserve rate decision, and the post-halving supply dynamics create a unique catalyst-rich environment. Whether the next 48 hours bring a Trump victory and an immediate surge past all-time highs, or a Harris win with a more measured market response, the structural case for Bitcoin’s continued appreciation remains compelling. The $69,000 level may soon be remembered as a launching pad rather than a ceiling.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
remember this article when BTC was “only” $69K. the Forbes $80-90K Trump-win prediction aged like fine wine in retrospect
the $70K resistance holding on election eve was classic. everyone wanted to position but nobody wanted to be the first to break through
forgotten detail: the FOMC meeting was the same week. double catalyst week with the election AND a rate decision. no wonder vol was compressed
CoinDesk was right about the post-election rally regardless of winner.BTC pumped whether you voted red or blue