Bitcoin Rally Running on Fumes: Why Cryptoquant Founder Says Spot Buyers Are Disappearing

Bitcoin has clawed back more than 13 percent from its early July lows near 57,750 USD, but one of the most closely watched data analysts in the crypto industry is sounding a warning: the rebound is being held up by futures traders, not by the kind of real, coin-buying demand that has powered every major bitcoin rally in history.

By Sarah Park | July 24, 2026

The Hook: A Warning from Inside the Data

Ki Young Ju, the founder and chief executive of on-chain analytics firm Cryptoquant, posted on July 23 that bitcoin spot demand is weakening while futures demand remains net positive but significantly lower than during the rebound seen three months ago. His analysis points to a market where leveraged betting is providing a floor under the price, but the actual buying of bitcoin by investors who intend to hold it has gone quiet.

For regular investors, this is the difference between a rally built on borrowed money and one built on conviction. Understanding that distinction could be the key to deciding what to do next.

On-Chain Evidence: The Numbers Behind the Warning

Bitcoin traded between approximately 65,300 USD and 66,360 USD over the 24 hours ending on the morning of July 23, 2026, according to market data from Bitcoin.com. The price slipped from a close near 66,100 USD on July 22 to around 65,568 USD, a decline of about 0.61 percent on the day.

The pullback came after a strong multi-week recovery. Bitcoin bottomed near 57,750 USD earlier in July before rebounding more than 13 percent. But the nature of that recovery is what has analysts like Ki Young Ju concerned.

The Cryptoquant chart shared by Ju tracks 30-day cumulative demand growth in bitcoin terms. It shows futures positioning far below the levels seen during the March through May rebound, when futures demand peaked near 250,000 BTC on a 30-day basis. Spot demand, represented by gray bars on the chart, has stayed mostly negative or flat since June, even as bitcoin bounced off its July lows.

In plain English: the people buying bitcoin futures contracts — essentially bets on future price movements — are still in the game. But the people buying actual bitcoin to hold in wallets have largely stepped back.

The Core Conflict: Why Spot Demand Matters More Than Futures

To understand why this distinction is so important, think of the bitcoin market as a house. Futures trading is like the paint and decorations — it can make things look good in the short term, but it does not change the structure. Spot demand is the foundation. When real buyers purchase actual bitcoin and move it off exchanges, they reduce the available supply and create lasting upward pressure on the price.

When futures demand drives the market without corresponding spot buying, the rally becomes fragile. Futures traders use leverage, which means they are borrowing money to放大 their positions. If the price moves against them, they face margin calls and forced liquidations that can trigger sharp sell-offs. This is exactly what happened during the volatility event known as Volmageddon in February 2018, and it is what analysts worry about when they see futures-driven rallies.

Ki Young Ju’s warning suggests that the current rebound from 57,750 USD may be more vulnerable than it looks. Without strong spot buyers stepping in to anchor the price, any negative surprise — a regulatory decision, a macroeconomic shock, or a large liquidation event — could send bitcoin back toward its recent lows.

Market Implications: ETF Inflows Offer a Silver Lining

There is some good news hiding in the data. Spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds continued pulling in money even as the price softened. Net inflows reached approximately 203 million USD on July 21, led by BlackRock’s IBIT fund at roughly 164 million USD, followed by another 69 million USD on July 22, according to data compiled by Bitcoin.com. The seven-session inflow streak is now approaching a cumulative 1 billion USD.

ETF inflows matter because they represent genuine investment demand from institutional and retail buyers who are using regulated financial products to gain exposure to bitcoin. These buyers are typically holding for the long term, not trading in and out on a daily basis. Their steady accumulation provides a counterweight to the weak spot demand that Cryptoquant flagged.

Long-term holder supply — coins that have sat unmoved in wallets for extended periods — also reached a fresh all-time high in recent on-chain data. This means that longtime bitcoin owners are not selling despite the price decline from October’s peak above 126,000 USD. In fact, they are adding to their positions.

The tension between these two forces — weakening short-term spot demand and strengthening long-term holder conviction — is what makes the current market so difficult to read.

The Fed Looms Over Everything

The next major catalyst for bitcoin prices is the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision scheduled for July 28 and 29. Higher interest rates tend to weigh on risk assets like bitcoin because they make safe alternatives like government bonds more attractive. The 10-year Treasury yield recently rose to around 4.70 percent, reflecting trader uncertainty about what the Fed will do.

Geopolitical tensions are adding another layer of pressure. Reports of attacks on oil tankers in the Red Sea tied to Iran-backed groups pushed crude oil prices up nearly 5 percent toward 91 USD a barrel. Higher energy costs feed inflation concerns, which could keep the Fed in a hawkish mood longer than markets want.

Bitcoin’s dip to 65,568 USD on July 23 tracked broader weakness across risk assets. The Nasdaq 100 fell approximately 0.75 percent, pressured by disappointing tech earnings and rising AI spending concerns. When traditional markets turn cautious, bitcoin often follows.

Key Price Levels to Watch

• Resistance — the ceiling where sellers tend to step in — has held firm in the 66,500 USD to 66,800 USD range across recent sessions. Bitcoin has tested this zone multiple times without breaking through. A decisive close above 67,000 USD would signal that buyers are regaining control.
• Support — the floor where buyers tend to emerge — sits in the 65,300 USD to 65,400 USD area. Below that, the 64,000 USD level becomes critical. A break below 64,000 USD could trigger deeper profit-taking.
• Bitcoin remains about 48 percent below its all-time high above 126,000 USD set in October 2025. The road back requires sustained spot buying, not just futures-driven momentum.

The Verdict: What Should Investors Do?

Ki Young Ju’s analysis is not a sell signal. It is a caution light. The fact that long-term holders are accumulating and ETF inflows continue suggests that the structural case for bitcoin remains intact. But the lack of fresh spot demand means that the short-term path is uncertain, and a pullback is possible.

For investors who already hold bitcoin, the data supports patience. The all-time high in long-term holder supply means that experienced market participants are not panicking. For those considering a new position, the current consolidation zone between 64,000 USD and 67,000 USD may offer a reasonable entry point — but only with an understanding that volatility in both directions is likely.

The key question is whether spot demand returns before futures traders lose patience. If it does, the rally resumes. If it does not, the floor under bitcoin may be thinner than it looks.

The cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry risk; always do your own research.