Bitcoin is limping toward the end of its worst month in 2023, with prices stuck below $26,000 following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. The leading cryptocurrency has shed 11% in August, and with September — historically its weakest month — just days away, traders are bracing for further downside pressure.
TL;DR
- Bitcoin hovers near $26,000 after Powell warned inflation remains “too high” at Jackson Hole
- August has been the worst month for BTC in 2023 with 11% losses
- BTC/USD briefly wick to $25,880 — multi-day lows
- Whale accumulation absent, order books show thin bid liquidity
- September historically unfavorable for Bitcoin; traders eye $25,000 and $22,000 support levels
Powell’s Hawkish Tone Weighs on Risk Assets
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a sobering message at the Kansas City Fed’s annual Jackson Hole gathering on August 25, warning that inflation in the United States remains “too high” and signaling a willingness to keep interest rates elevated for longer than markets had anticipated. The “higher for longer” mantra rattled investors across risk asset classes, from equities to cryptocurrencies.
For Bitcoin, already struggling to maintain the $26,000 level following a sharp sell-off earlier in the month, Powell’s remarks provided no relief. The cryptocurrency had staged a brief recovery attempt in the days leading up to Jackson Hole, but the renewed hawkishness quickly extinguished any bullish momentum.
The Reuters analysis of the speech noted that Powell’s cautious tone fanned investor concern about the broader economy, with implications extending well beyond crypto. Peter Schiff, a longtime Bitcoin critic, publicly criticized the Fed Chair for his handling of monetary policy in the aftermath of the address.
Bitcoin’s Technical Picture Deteriorates
Bitcoin’s weekly candle closed with another loss, and the new week opened with immediate downside. BTC/USD wicked to $25,880 — marking multi-day lows — before consolidating slightly above $26,000, according to data from TradingView. The pair has been trapped in a narrow range, with neither bulls nor bears able to establish decisive control.
Popular trader Skew described the weekend price action as “max pain,” noting that shorts continued to stack into the new week. “Expecting some kind of move around US Futures open and into Monday EU session,” Skew wrote, highlighting the compressed volatility that often precedes larger directional moves.
Keith Alan, co-founder of monitoring resource Material Indicators, offered a bearish assessment of the order book dynamics. “Whales aren’t buying yet, and neither am I,” he stated alongside Binance BTC/USD order book data showing a conspicuous absence of bid liquidity. The chart revealed only modest interest at the $25,500 level, with little in the way of meaningful support below.
September Looms as Historical Headwind
Adding to the bearish sentiment is the calendar itself. September has traditionally been Bitcoin’s worst-performing month, and the approaching monthly close for August — already the worst month of 2023 — has traders on high alert for potential volatility spikes.
Trader Crypto Tony outlined two scenarios he’s watching: either Bitcoin drops to test $25,000 lows and then reverses higher, or it manages to flip the current range and push back above key resistance. The first scenario aligns with growing expectations of a “September crash” that could take BTC as low as $22,000, a level that would represent a roughly 15% decline from late August prices.
The fear is compounded by the fact that the August sell-off has already eroded significant support. Bitcoin’s 11% monthly loss has wiped out the gains from the early summer rally that briefly pushed prices above $31,000, leaving the market in a vulnerable technical position heading into the fall.
Macroeconomic Calendar Offers Limited Catalysts
The coming week’s macroeconomic calendar is relatively light, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index data serving as the primary highlight. PCE is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, and any upside surprise could reinforce Powell’s hawkish narrative and further pressure Bitcoin and other risk assets.
Beyond PCE, the crypto-specific event calendar is also quiet, with no major protocol upgrades, ETF decisions, or regulatory deadlines in the immediate pipeline. This absence of catalysts means that Bitcoin’s price action will likely continue to be driven by broader macro sentiment and technical factors rather than crypto-native developments.
Meanwhile, the broader cryptocurrency market has largely tracked Bitcoin’s weakness, with Ethereum (ETH) also posting losses near $1,657. Toncoin (TON) has been a notable outlier, posting gains while most of the market declined.
Why This Matters
Bitcoin’s struggle at $26,000 represents more than just a short-term price fluctuation — it reflects a fundamental tension between the cryptocurrency’s maturation as a macro asset and the persistent headwinds created by the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. Powell’s Jackson Hole speech made clear that the central bank remains focused on fighting inflation, even at the cost of economic growth and risk asset performance.
For Bitcoin investors, the confluence of a historically weak seasonal period, deteriorating technical indicators, and a hawkish Fed creates a challenging environment. The $25,000 level has emerged as a critical near-term support, with a break below potentially opening the door to the $22,000 region that some analysts have projected.
However, it’s worth noting that Bitcoin has repeatedly confounded bearish consensus throughout its history. The absence of whale buying at current levels could equally mean that large holders are waiting for a clearer signal before stepping in — and any positive macro surprise, such as softer-than-expected PCE data, could trigger a sharp relief rally.
For now, the market remains in a holding pattern, watching the data and waiting for the next directional catalyst. With the August monthly close just days away, the stage is set for what could be a pivotal week in determining Bitcoin’s trajectory through the remainder of 2023.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk. Always conduct your own research and consider your financial situation before making investment decisions.
11% down in August and now September which is historically the worst month for BTC. $22K support is the line in the sand
september 2023 was brutal. $22K held but barely. the whale accumulation started right at that support level though
whale accumulation completely absent and thin bid liquidity on order books. this is not a healthy consolidation, it is a slow bleed
exchange supply hitting 6 year low is the only bullish signal here. someone is accumulating while everyone else panics
exchange supply at 6 year low while price dumps is the most bullish divergence. someone with size is stacking quietly
Grigore D. exchange supply at 6 year low while price dumps. someone with real size was stacking the whole time powell was talking
Fatima K. whale accumulation absent and thin books. that was the setup for the September wick to 25K. anyone who was watching depth charts knew the support was paper
slow bleed is generous. order books were paper thin. any sizeable market sell would have cascaded through $25K in minutes
Diego F. paper thin books was exactly right. one market sell through 25K and the cascade would have been brutal. whales knew the support was theater
thin bid liquidity at 25K means any market sell cascades fast. the order books were literally paper at that point
Diego F. thin books at 25k with Powell still saying inflation is too high. 11 percent august drawdown and september is usually worse
too high he says. CPI was 3.2% and trending down but the fed refuses to declare victory. crypto is just collateral damage in their inflation fight
3.2% CPI and powell still pumping the hawkish narrative. the fed needed crypto weak to push their higher for longer story
powell_put_ CPI at 3.2% with core still sticky and Powell says too high. dude was never gonna pivot in August, September was always the real decision point
Powell saying inflation is too high at Jackson Hole while BTC bled 11% in August. macro still runs the show no matter how many halving narratives people push
jackson_hole_ and then October happened. BTC pumped from $27K to $35K in a month. September weakness is real but its a buying opportunity more often than not
whale accumulation absent and thin bid liquidity. everyone was watching the chart but the order book told the real story. distribution not accumulation
Powell saying inflation too high at Jackson Hole while CPI was already cooling was pure theater. markets dumped on words not data
whale accumulation being absent during the $25,880 wick was the real signal. smart money wasnt interested at those levels
Reinout D. exactly. order books showed zero bid support and whales ghosted. that told you everything about where $25K support actually stood
exchange supply at a 6 year low while price bleeds. someone with real size was quietly accumulating the whole time
exchange supply at 6 year lows was the signal nobody traded on. everyone was watching Powells mouth instead of on chain data
CPI at 3.2 percent and Powell still hawkish. the fed needed risk assets weak to keep their higher for longer story alive
Tobias R. CPI at 3.2pct and Powell still saying too high. the fed needed risk assets weak to justify their rate path. crypto was just collateral damage in the inflation messaging war
exchange supply at 6 year lows and price still bleeding. that divergence was the strongest buy signal of 2023 and most people missed it because Powell was scary
whales absent and thin bids at 25k. classic setup for a cascade. anyone long here was gambling