BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin has every ingredient needed to reach 1 million USD by 2030 — yet the famous crypto trader is putting his own money into Ethereum right now, because he believes ETH could triple or quintuple “pretty quickly” while Bitcoin grinds higher.
By Sarah Park | September 3, 2026
The Hook: A Bullish Call With a Twist
In the latest episode of Cointelegraph’s Trade Secrets, Hayes laid out his case for a seven-figure Bitcoin over the next four years. His recipe: the collapse of the AI bubble, what he calls “massive” money printing by governments, and potential yield curve control in the United States — a tool the Treasury could use to cap borrowing costs, which historically pushes investors toward hard assets.
For regular investors, the message is striking: one of the most famous names in crypto trading is publicly saying the worst may already be over. “We have the ingredients. The time is now,” Hayes said, adding that he believes 58,000 USD was probably the bottom for Bitcoin and that the market is now set up for what he calls a “grind higher” rally. Bitcoin is currently trading around 77,000 USD, up roughly 22 percent over the past 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap data cited by Cointelegraph.
The Core Conflict: 1 Million USD or ‘Mathematically Impossible’?
Hayes is not without critics — and they are credible ones. Just weeks earlier, Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, told the same show that Bitcoin reaching 1 million USD by 2030 is “mathematically impossible.” His argument: the enormous capital inflows that pushed Bitcoin to today’s price over 15 years suggest it cannot attract the trillions of dollars in new money that a 1 million USD price tag would require within just four years.
Think of it like this: pushing a price higher gets harder as the total value grows. Moving Bitcoin from 77,000 USD to 1 million USD means adding trillions in new investment — a sum larger than most national stock markets. Thielen says the math does not work. Hayes says money printing changes the math entirely. Ordinary investors should understand that both men are making forecasts, not stating facts.
Why Hayes Is Buying Ethereum Instead
Here is the twist that matters for your portfolio. Despite his bullish Bitcoin call, Hayes says his number one pick right now is Ethereum. His reasoning is simple: Ethereum is, in his words, “the one megacap crypto that has not eclipsed its 2021 all-time high.” It has been beaten down, forgotten by traders, and — in his view — is overdue for a surge.
Ethereum currently trades around 2,391 USD. Hayes believes it “could do 3x to 5x pretty quickly” — meaning a potential rise toward a range of roughly 7,000 to 12,000 USD if his thesis plays out. That is a forecast, not a guarantee, and Hayes has been wrong before. But his logic follows a classic investing principle: the best risk-reward often sits in quality assets that everyone has given up on, not in the ones already making headlines.
Hayes Turns Cold on Hyperliquid — and on Trump’s Crypto Powers
Hayes also cooled on Hyperliquid, the decentralized trading platform he once favored. “Everybody knows that Hyperliquid is here,” he said, arguing that massive expectations are now priced in and the outsized returns of the past are unlikely to repeat. He said his family office, Maelstrom, sees better risk-reward elsewhere in the market.
He was equally blunt about politics. Despite being pardoned by President Donald Trump in 2024, Hayes said the president has little influence over crypto prices. “What Trump says or does is irrelevant,” Hayes argued, telling investors to watch the Treasury and the Federal Reserve instead. He also questioned whether Trump would spend the political capital needed to push crypto legislation like the CLARITY Act through Congress.
BitMEX Shuts Down — and Hayes ‘Feels Excellent’ About It
In a closing chapter for crypto history, the exchange Hayes co-founded in 2014, BitMEX, announced it will shut down on September 23 and has urged users to close positions and withdraw funds before the deadline. Rather than mourn it, Hayes says it “feels excellent” to close on his own terms. “We landed the plane,” he said, noting that running a mid-sized crypto exchange today is “a mug’s game” unless you have the scale of a Binance or OKX, given the crushing costs of security and infrastructure.
The Verdict: What This Means for You
If you own Bitcoin, the takeaway is that a well-known trader believes the bottom is in and the long-term trend remains up — driven by macro forces like money printing, not by headlines or tweets. If you own Ethereum, the more interesting signal is that Hayes sees ETH as the better risk-reward bet today, precisely because it has underperformed and been ignored.
But treat both claims with healthy skepticism. The 1 million USD target is disputed by serious analysts, and a “3x to 5x” Ethereum call is a speculative opinion from a man whose job is making bold bets. The sensible move for regular investors is the usual one: no single forecast should drive your decisions, position sizes should survive being wrong, and volatility is the price of admission to this market.
The cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
hayes saying 1M btc by 2030 then putting his own money in ETH instead tells you everything. talk your book but hedged lmao
he literally said ETH can 3x to 5x while btc just grinds higher. why would he buy the slow one, its just basic risk reward
basic risk reward sure, but eth still has to break out first. its been the slow one for two years running, hayes is front running his own thesis
hedged is the generous read. the 1M headline farms the engagement, the ETH bag collects the actual returns. classic hayes
thielen is right on the math. 77k to 1M is a 13x, that is trillions in new inflow in four years. money printer can dream
fair, but hayes called 58k as the bottom and we are at 77k already. dude is early way more often than he is late
Thielen is not even being harsh, just literal. 77k to 1M needs trillions of inflow and yield curve control is still only a maybe
and the 13x assumes zero drawdowns on the way. four years of printing without one 40% clip would be a genuine first
Hayes says BTC to 1M by 2030 but puts his own money into ETH. That mismatch tells you more than the headline does.
58k was probably the bottom he says lol. everyone is a genius three weeks into the bounce
annoying part is he has called bottoms before. the yield curve control argument actually makes sense if the treasury goes there
thielen says trillions in inflows are impossible, hayes says money printing changes the math. one of these men will be very wrong by 2030