Bitcoin just delivered its most stubborn bullish on-chain signal of the year — and one of Wall Street’s best-known crypto analysts still isn’t convinced.
By Sarah Park | September 9, 2026
The Hook: Three Straight Weeks of Profitable Spending
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near 79,300 USD on Wednesday, up roughly 1.1% over the past 24 hours, and one of the market’s most trusted on-chain gauges is quietly telling a story that challenges the bear-market narrative dominating headlines. According to data from analytics platform CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has now stayed above its breakeven level of 1 for three full weeks — since August 19 — marking its longest bullish streak of 2026.
In plain English, SOPR measures whether coins moving on the blockchain are being sold at a profit or a loss compared to the last time they moved. Think of it like a used-car market report: are sellers cashing out their vehicles for more than they paid, or dumping them at a loss? When SOPR is above 1, most sellers are in profit. Right now, the metric reads 1.002 — a slim but meaningful margin that means the average coin being spent is changing hands at a gain.
On-Chain Evidence: A Pattern That Looks Like Early Bull Markets
The streak matters because of what SOPR typically does in different market phases. In bear markets, rallies back into profit tend to get sold into — holders use strength to exit. In bull markets, short dips below breakeven become buy-the-dip opportunities, and profitability persists. The current structure is starting to resemble those early bull-market recoveries, according to on-chain analytics suite Checkonchain, which shared the observation with followers on X over the weekend.
- SOPR above 1 since August 19 — the longest uninterrupted bullish stretch of 2026, per CryptoQuant.
- Current reading of 1.002 — coins being spent are, on average, moving at a modest profit.
- Short-term holder breakdown — wallets holding for up to six months are showing profitability patterns that echo past recovery phases, per Checkonchain.
- August’s 25% upside — the rally that started the streak remains the reference point analysts are debating.
The Core Conflict: Ki Young Ju Says the Bear Is Over — David Puell Disagrees
Here is where the story gets interesting for regular investors: the experts are split. In late August, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju declared the bear market effectively “over,” citing the firm’s proprietary Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator. If he’s right, the SOPR streak is an early confirmation that a new upward cycle is taking shape.
But David Puell, the ARK Invest portfolio manager who created the widely followed Puell Multiple indicator, urged caution in a September 4 interview with CryptoQuant. Asked how Bitcoin’s 25% August gain might play out through the fourth quarter, Puell said further upside is, in his view, the less likely path. “In our view, as of now, we leave it as a downside risk,” he said — meaning he still sees the possibility of new macro lows for this cycle.
Crucially, Puell singled out SOPR itself as the test that could change his mind. He wants to see the metric hold above 1 for an extended period, with investors “realizing profits consistently without price going back to a new low.” He also wants Bitcoin to print a series of higher highs and higher lows on weekly charts — a pattern that, as Cointelegraph has reported, has not yet appeared.
Market Implications: Why a Small Number Deserves Big Attention
A reading of 1.002 may sound trivial — it is barely above breakeven. But the duration is the signal. Sustained profitability means sellers are not panicking; they are choosing to take gains, and buyers are absorbing that supply without pushing the market back underwater. That is the behavioral signature of a market where demand is holding up, not one that is capitulating.
For everyday investors, the practical takeaway is about context, not timing. Bitcoin recovering toward the 80,000 USD area — it trades near 79,300 USD at the time of writing — alongside a three-week profit streak is a healthier picture than the same price with sellers underwater. It suggests the recent recovery has been built on coins moving from weaker hands to stronger ones, rather than on forced selling.
The Verdict: Watch the Streak, Not the Headlines
The honest answer is that the data is pointing in two directions at once. On-chain profitability says the market is behaving like the early innings of a recovery. A veteran analyst at one of the largest asset managers in the world says the floor is not yet proven. Both can be true at the same time — early recoveries are, by definition, fragile and contested.
If you own Bitcoin or are considering it, the single most useful thing to watch in the coming weeks is whether SOPR stays above 1. If the streak extends while price builds higher lows, Puell’s own stated conditions for turning bullish would be moving closer to reality. If it breaks back below 1 alongside a price slide, the bear-market warning regains the upper hand. Either way, a slim number above breakeven — sustained for weeks — tells you far more than any single day of price action.
The cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
three weeks of voluntary profit taking near 79k while the bear crowd quotes vibes. last time sopr held this shape mid range it resolved up, but sure lets front run the macro boogeyman again
Three weeks above 1.0 while everyone screams bear market is wild. Last time SOPR held like this we were near a local bottom, not a top. 79.3k holding makes more sense when you look at who is actually spending coins.
BTC grinding around 79.3k while everyone screams bear market. the SOPR streak since Aug 19 is the data nobody quotes because it breaks the doom thesis
one on-chain metric vs the whole macro backdrop tho. Puell’s downside case assumes macro cracks, and SOPR cannot save us from that
macro can crack anything sure, but the Checkonchain STH cost basis at 78.3k is doing real work as support. two datasets pointing one direction
macro cracked twice since aug 19 and sopr still held. at some point the macro excuse has to actually show up in the flows
SOPR at 1.002 is barely above breakeven though. That is a rounding error, calling it a profit streak feels generous. One red week and this whole signal flips.
1.002 is thin, granted. But a rounding error held for 21 straight days is the whole point. Forced sellers would crack it in an afternoon. Duration is the signal here, not magnitude.
1.002 is thin but duration is the tell. three weeks above 1.0 means even weak profits are being spent voluntarily, forced sellers show up below breakeven not above
a rounding error that refuses to die for 21 days is the point. bears needed one forced seller week since aug 19 and got nothing
Fair point on the tight reading, but duration matters more than magnitude here. Three weeks means sellers are not panicking into losses even at these levels. That is the actual signal.
a rounding error held for 21 straight days means nobody was forced to sell at a loss. find me the last bear market where that happened near a local top
the Checkonchain short-term holder cut is the more interesting angle. STH cost basis holding near 78.3k as support is the real tell
macro can crack anything sure, but checkonchain STH cost basis at 78.3k plus sopr holding is two independent datasets pointing one way. the macro thesis needs price to break that level first
Skeptical analyst vs stubborn on-chain data, the classic matchup. I lean with the data on this one. Wall Street kept calling tops all through the last recovery too.
puell builds great models but his downside call needs a level attached. checkonchain STH cost basis around 78.3k is the line, trade it from there