Deep Dive Analysis
Aave (AAVE)
2026-08-10 09:36 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
91.43
91.43
52W HIGH
399.07
399.07
DRAWDOWN
-77.1%
-77.1%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 3 Bull / 5 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, 50d rising, rising 1m & 3m
Bearish factors: price < 200d, death cross, MACD-, far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.82)
AAVE Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 190.04
Low: 58.05
Now: 91.43
Low: 58.05
Now: 91.43
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 49.0 | ADX (14) | 13.7 |
| 50d MA | 91.27 | 200d MA | 98.86 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 87.52 | Resistance | 102.30 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.23%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| AAVE | +1.8% | +44.3% | -6.8% | -51.9% |
| BTC | +0.0% | +3.4% | -4.2% | -28.6% |
| ETH | +1.2% | +14.0% | -9.9% | -35.7% |
| SOL | -1.1% | +15.2% | -5.3% | -44.5% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
13,524
RETURN
-9.8%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-38.9%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| AAVE | -9.8% | -54.7% | -38.9% | 50 | 36% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (AAVE)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -51.9% | 4,666 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -39.3% | 9,099 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -26.6% | 11,005 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -29.0% | 10,655 |
AAVE Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 83.70 (-8.5%) |
| Target 1 | 101.00 (10.5%) |
| Target 2 | 107.00 (17.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-07-30 | BUY | 99.44 | |
| 2026-07-31 | SELL | 93.68 | -5.8% |
| 2026-08-01 | BUY | 90.52 | |
| 2026-08-02 | SELL | 92.00 | +1.6% |
| 2026-08-03 | BUY | 92.28 | |
| 2026-08-04 | SELL | 90.41 | -2.0% |
| 2026-08-05 | BUY | 89.74 | |
| 2026-08-06 | SELL | 89.59 | -0.2% |
| 2026-08-08 | BUY | 91.23 | |
| 2026-08-09 | SELL | 90.55 | -0.7% |
| 2026-08-10 | BUY | 91.43 | |
| END | SELL | 91.43 | +0.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-08-10 09:36 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
77% drawdown from the high and still calling it a HOLD? the copium is unreal. AAVE had a nice run but lending protocols are dead money until rates cycle
backtest shows -9.8% with 50 trades and 36% win rate. thats a lot of chopping for basically matching the entry price. fees would eat most of that
^ 36% win rate is rough but the strategy still beat buy and hold by 45 points. thats the whole point of trend following, you cut losers fast
77% drawdown from the highs and they still rate it HOLD? the strategy backtest literally lost money over 2 years. id be scaling out not waiting
^ 36% win rate on 50 trades is rough. your system needs to hit at least 45% to survive slippage long term
the DCA 12 buys column is interesting tho. -26.6% vs lump sum -51.9%. timing still matters even in a bear trend