This is an automated coin monitor, not investment advice.
Aptos (APT)
USD 0.5808
USD 3.08
-81.2%
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Bullish factors: golden cross
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (37.5), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.5)
Low: USD 0.5179
Now: USD 0.5808
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 37.5 | ADX (14) | 23.0 |
| 50d MA | USD 0.7419 | 200d MA | USD 0.7166 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | USD 0.5653 | Resistance | USD 0.8481 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.07%/day | Model state | Bearish trend |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| APT | -29.2% | -7.5% | -8.8% | -41.9% |
| BTC | -12.0% | -5.6% | +18.2% | +4.3% |
| ETH | -16.1% | -15.9% | +18.1% | +0.1% |
| SOL | -20.7% | -16.6% | +3.0% | -4.5% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation on a notional USD 30,000 starting balance using the model’s 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. The model goes long when price is above a rising 50d MA with RSI 40-75, and goes flat on a death cross or RSI above 82. Hypothetical, before fees and slippage.
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| APT | -1.4% | -38.3% | -22.0% | 22 | 41% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (APT)
Hypothetical result of a notional USD 30,000 placed one year ago under different timing schedules. Simulation only, not a recommendation.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -41.9% | USD 18,517 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -17.4% | USD 24,785 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -10.7% | USD 26,781 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -10.4% | USD 26,881 |
Levels the system watches
Reference levels used by the trend model to classify APT. They describe how the model reads the chart, not what anyone should do.
| Support (recent swing low) | USD 0.5653 |
| Resistance (recent swing high) | USD 0.8481 |
| Trend model’s invalidation level (ATR-based) | USD 0.5335 (-8.1% from current price) |
| ATR (14) | USD 0.0236 (4.07%/day) |
| Price location vs trend (model label) | Pullback |
The invalidation level is where the model would stop treating the current trend reading as valid (roughly 2x ATR below price or 0.5x ATR below the recent swing low, whichever is lower). It is a model parameter, not a stop-loss recommendation.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | Simulated P&L |
| 2026-10-12 | BUY | USD 0.9006 | |
| 2026-10-13 | SELL | USD 0.7940 | -11.8% |
| 2026-10-14 | BUY | USD 0.8364 | |
| 2026-10-15 | SELL | USD 0.8162 | -2.4% |
| 2026-10-16 | BUY | USD 0.8338 | |
| 2026-10-17 | SELL | USD 0.8481 | +1.7% |
| 2026-10-18 | BUY | USD 0.7958 | |
| 2026-10-19 | SELL | USD 0.7826 | -1.7% |
| 2026-10-20 | BUY | USD 0.7683 | |
| 2026-10-21 | SELL | USD 0.8277 | +7.7% |
| 2026-10-22 | BUY | USD 0.8203 | |
| 2026-10-24 | SELL | USD 0.7362 | -10.3% |
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate · Backtests are hypothetical and exclude fees.
22 trades and a 41% win rate still beats buy and hold at -38.3%. that backtest log is just bleeding -11.8% here, -10.3% there, brutal
0.58 against a 3.08 high. aptos maxis keep telling me the move stack is coming, we are 81% down and waiting
DCA 12 buys cut the loss to -10.4% vs -41.9% lump sum. still a loss tho. the 0.5179 low from last year holding so far is the only bullish thing here