Deep Dive Analysis
Avalanche (AVAX)
2026-09-01 09:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
7.22
7.22
52W HIGH
55.70
55.70
DRAWDOWN
-87.0%
-87.0%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 6 Bull / 4 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, 50d rising, RSI healthy (55.1), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 32.2), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.18)
Bearish factors: price < 200d, death cross, MACD-, far below high
AVAX Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 12.10
Low: 5.69
Now: 7.22
Low: 5.69
Now: 7.22
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 55.1 | ADX (14) | 32.2 |
| 50d MA | 6.73 | 200d MA | 8.10 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 6.17 | Resistance | 8.30 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.26%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| AVAX | +14.3% | +10.7% | -23.1% | -40.3% |
| BTC | +22.6% | +33.0% | -0.5% | -11.1% |
| ETH | +30.2% | +56.1% | +5.1% | -16.8% |
| SOL | +34.1% | +39.0% | +18.6% | -16.6% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
7,856
RETURN
-47.6%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-52.8%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| AVAX | -47.6% | -61.4% | -52.8% | 54 | 39% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (AVAX)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -40.3% | 4,430 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -37.6% | 9,359 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -34.2% | 9,867 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -32.0% | 10,193 |
AVAX Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 6.61 (-8.5%) |
| Target 1 | 8.00 (10.8%) |
| Target 2 | 8.00 (10.8%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-22 | BUY | 7.50 | |
| 2026-08-23 | SELL | 7.61 | +1.4% |
| 2026-08-24 | BUY | 7.54 | |
| 2026-08-25 | SELL | 7.33 | -2.8% |
| 2026-08-26 | BUY | 7.45 | |
| 2026-08-27 | SELL | 7.53 | +1.1% |
| 2026-08-28 | BUY | 7.31 | |
| 2026-08-29 | SELL | 7.33 | +0.4% |
| 2026-08-30 | BUY | 7.11 | |
| 2026-08-31 | SELL | 7.23 | +1.6% |
| 2026-09-01 | BUY | 7.22 | |
| END | SELL | 7.22 | +0.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-01 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
55.70 down to 7.22 and the verdict is still Stage 3 Topping with a wait. feels generous lol
Stage 3 fits the chart though, price above the 50d at 6.73 and climbing. Doesnt make the -87% sting any less.
54 trades to still end down 47.6%. trend following with 4.26% daily ATR, the chop alone eats you alive
down 47.6% across 54 trades is basically tuition at that point. with 4.26% daily ATR every stop gets wicked before it works
tuition is right. with a 4.26% daily ATR every stage 1 entry gets wicked the same way, this system only pays when the trend runs clean
the 15k ladder only saves you if the wicks respect the stages. with 4.26% daily ATR half the buys get invalidated anyway, tuition never stops
87% off the high and the system still says wait. ADX at 32.2 screaming strong trend while price sits at 7.22, classic trap where the trend is up but you are buying someone elses exit liquidity.
This. The 6 bull vs 4 bear split with low conviction basically means the edge is a coin flip. Sitting on my hands until the 200d sorts itself out.
nobody mentioning OBV up with vol ratio 1.18 while price sits under 8.30 resistance. someone is quietly loading imo
vol ratio 1.18 with OBV rising while price sits under the 200d at 8.10 reads more like relief bounce loading than a reversal. Need a weekly close above 8.30 before trusting it.
OBV rising with vol ratio 1.18 at 7.22 is the only bull case worth holding onto. everything else on that chart is scar tissue
OBV rising is nice until you remember 54 trades of history says the wicks win at 4.26 percent daily ATR. id take the 6.17 retest before trusting stage 2 fills
^ exactly, the 6.10 invalidation is the only honest level here. aiming at 8.00 with the 200d sitting at 8.10 is just hoping the wall blinks first
6.17 retest before fills is the disciplined take but if OBV keeps rising you end up paying 8 for the same exposure. the ATR makes both paths expensive
or you get wicked to 6.17 on the retest and fill cheaper. the ATR punishes both paths equally, staging the entries is the only real defense here
vol ratio 1.18 is mild interest at best. if someone was seriously loading at 7.22 youd see 1.5 plus. keep the dream grounded
or its the last buyers from 55 averaging their exit. obv rising dont tell you which side of the trade the volume is on
RSI 55 with OBV rising and vol ratio 1.18 is the only thing keeping me interested. Stage 3 topping at 7.22 after touching 55.70 feels rough, that drawdown number stings to look at.
Target 1 and Target 2 both at 8.00 while resistance sits at 8.30 and the 200d at 8.10. Novak is aiming straight at the wall where sellers showed up last time. 6.17 support is the line that matters.
fair on the 8.30 wall but the staged 15k deployment is the actual point of a HOLD call. he sat out the slide from 55.70 to 7.22, thats the drawdown that matters. 6.17 holds or the plan gets rewritten anyway
targets at 8.00 sitting under both the 200d at 8.10 and resistance at 8.30 means novak expects the wall to hold. very conservative aim for a topping call
54 trades and -47.6 percent should be printed at the top of every deep dive. the system is honest, the asset is just hostile to trend following
an honest system printing a hostile asset is the best ad for index funds ever written. still here reading the deep dives tho lol
agreed, every deep dive should lead with the backtest number. most would bury -47.6 percent under three paragraphs of setup talk before mentioning it
87% down and RSI still at 55, someone believes. im waiting for a real close over 8.10 before calling it anything other than a dead cat with good manners
8.10 is the 200d, a weekly close above it ends the argument. until then we are all just describing the same dead cat with different adjectives
a weekly close above 8.10 also has to clear the 8.30 wall in the same candle. novak aiming targets at 8.00 basically admits he expects resistance to win
dead cat with good manners is the best description of stage 3 on this chart. 8.30 wall sitting right above the 200d makes the 8.00 target pure hopium
8.10 also has to clear the weekly supply from the november breakdown, that wall and the shelf are the same obstacle
rsi 55 at minus 87 just means the sellers ran out, not that buyers actually showed up. different thing entirely